2024 AFC South Betting Preview: Time for C.J. Stroud Repeat
Matt LaMarca breaks down each team in the AFC South in 2024, previewing the odds for winning the division and player props.
The AFC South was one of the most competitive divisions in football last season. The Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Indianapolis Colts all entered the final week of the regular season with a chance to win the division, with the Texans ultimately getting the job done in the end.
However, things aren’t expected to be quite as competitive in 2024-25. The Texans have emerged as clear favorites, led by superstar quarterback C.J. Stroud. He put together one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history, and the sky is the limit for him heading into his sophomore season.
Can he lead the Texans to a second straight division crown, or can someone else pull off the upset? Let’s dive in.
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HOUSTON TEXANS
- Win Total: 9.5 Over (-130; Caesars), Under (+122; FanDuel)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (-190), No (+165; BetMGM)
- To Win Division: +105
- To Win AFC: +850 (DraftKings)
- To Win Super Bowl: +1600
Let’s start by appreciating just how good Stroud was last season. He led the league with an average of 273.9 yards per game, and he added 23 touchdown passes and three touchdown runs. Perhaps most impressively, he threw just five interceptions in his 15 starts, and his 1.0% interception rate was the best mark in football.
Stroud was absolutely deadly with a clean pocket in particular. He was second in EPA per attempt when not under pressure (+0.42), and he was No. 3 in yards per attempt (9.2). Stroud was significantly worse when the defense did manage to pressure him, but that’s not atypical for a rookie quarterback. He could improve in that department moving forward, which would make him one of the unquestioned best quarterbacks in football.
The scary thing is that the Texans’ offensive line should be significantly improved in 2024. They dealt with a myriad of injuries along the line in 2023. Standout left tackle Laremy Tunsil missed three games. 2022 first-rounder Kenyon Green missed the entire season. 2023 second-rounder Juice Scruggs and right tackle Tytus Howard missed 10 games apiece. All four of those guys are projected to be starters in 2024, so Stroud should have more time to pick defenses apart.
Additionally, Stroud will be throwing to one of the best receiving corps in football. They added Stefon Diggs in the offseason, and he’ll join the dynamic young duo of Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Collins emerged as a legit No. 1 option in 2023, racking up 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns, while Dell looks fully recovered after a season-ending injury.
The big concern with this team is the schedule. They feasted on the sixth-easiest schedule in 2023, and they’re projected to face the seventh hardest in 2024. Specifically, their defense will face a much stiffer test after facing the easiest schedule in all of football in 2023. They could also be due for a bit of regression in one-score games after going 7-3 in that department last season.
Ultimately, this team has a wide range of outcomes. Maybe the more difficult schedule propels this team back to reality, or maybe Stroud propels them to new heights.
I think the best way to play them is to play the upside angle. If this team is going to go over its 9.5-win total, it likely means that Stroud has become one of the best QBs in the league. If that happens, there’s no reason the Texans can’t win the AFC (+850) or even the Super Bowl (+1600). At a minimum, we would have some hedge opportunities in that scenario. I’m willing to roll the dice on one of the most promising QBs we’ve seen in quite some time.
Bets
- Texans to win AFC (+850)
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
- Win Total: 8.5 Over (-110; DraftKings), Under (+100; Caesars)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (+130), No (-145; BetMGM)
- To Win Division: +300 (Caesars)
- To Win AFC: +2800 (BetMGM)
- To Win Super Bowl: +5000
It’s hard to get a feel for this Jaguars team based on what they did last season. They started the year at 8-3 and appeared poised to live up to their lofty preseason expectations. However, Trevor Lawrence dealt with a host of injuries down the stretch, and the team stumbled to a 1-5 record over its final six games.
It’s easy to blame their struggles on a hobbled Lawrence, but that doesn’t tell the full story. Their defense also took some major steps back over that stretch, allowing 28 points or more in four of their final six contests. They surrendered nearly 500 yards to a Bengals offense without Joe Burrow, and the Browns and Ravens lit them up for nearly 400 yards apiece.
That’s a major concern. This team needs the defense to be well above average because their offense remains a massive question mark.
Even when Lawrence wasn’t injured last year, his production left a lot to be desired. Most notably, Lawrence has shown no ability to make plays when under any sort of pressure. He had some of the widest splits in football when pressured last year:
- Clean Pocket: 91.1 PFF grade, 7.3 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns, eight interceptions
- Under Pressure: 51.3 PFF grade, 6.4 yards per attempt, six touchdowns, six interceptions
Lawrence’s inability to deal with pressure has forced their offense to get the ball out of his hands extremely quickly. When Lawrence held the ball for 3+ seconds last year, a whopping 25% of his dropbacks resulted in a sack or interception. Only Daniel Jones was worse in that department, and that’s not the type of company you expect for someone who entered the league with sky-high expectations.
Lawrence isn’t getting much help from the running game, either. Travis Etienne might be a useful fantasy producer, but from an efficiency standpoint, the Jaguars’ run game was brutal last season: 30th in yards per carry, 29th in EPA per attempt, 28th in Success Rate. With Calvin Ridley now in Tennessee, it’s hard to imagine this offense being much better in 2024.
They’re also going to have to navigate a bear of a schedule to start the season. They face the second-hardest schedule through Week 13, and they’re favored by more than a FG just once in that stretch (Week 7 vs. the Patriots). Things do lighten up after that, but they might be too far behind the eight-ball by the time some of their easier matchups start showing up on the schedule.
This team does have some positives working for it—especially the stud pass-rush duo of Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker—but it’s hard to get too excited about this team in 2024. Getting under 8.5 wins at even money seems like a great value.
Bets
- Under 8.5 wins (+100)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
- Win Total: 8.5 Over (-104; FanDuel), Under (-110; Caesars)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (+145; BetMGM), No (-170; Caesars)
- To Win Division: +330 (Caesars)
- To Win AFC: +3500 (DraftKings)
- To Win Super Bowl: +6600 (BetMGM)
I’m not sure there’s a more underappreciated coach in football than Shane Steichen. It might be a little early to make that kind of statement— he’s spent just one season as a head coach—but I’ve seen enough to know that this guy makes a difference.
Last season, Steichen’s Colts had to overcome a host of different hardships on offense. They lost first-round rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson early in the season, leaving the team with Gardner Minshew to start 13 games. He finished as PFF’s No. 31 quarterback (out of 38 qualifiers).
The team also had to deal with injuries to star running back Jonathan Taylor. He played in just 10 games, and his production was down even when available. He averaged just 4.4 yards per carry after racking up 5.1 across his first three seasons.
The Colts also had to navigate an extremely difficult schedule. They played the second-hardest schedule in terms of opposing defenses, including the No. 1 schedule against the run.
Despite all that, the Colts still managed to win nine games and nearly sneak into the playoffs. They did that on the back of their offense, particularly in the early portion of games. That’s when head coaches are typically “scripting” plays and before opposing defenses have had a chance to adjust.
In the first quarter last season, the Colts were fourth in Success Rate. The only teams that were better were the San Francisco 49ers (Kyle Shanahan), the Los Angeles Rams (Sean McVay), and the Cincinnati Bengals (Zac Taylor). That is absolutely elite company to keep as an offensive head coach.
Ultimately, Steichen was able to take a poor set of circumstances and turn it into a positive. I’m legitimately excited to see what he can do with a bit more talent at his disposal.
That starts with Richardson, who is one of the most exciting quarterback prospects in league history. He is quite possibly the greatest athlete to ever see snaps at the position, and Steichen has no plans of limiting him despite last year’s injuries. The duo of Richardson and Taylor should give the Colts one of the best run games in all of football.
The defense has more question marks, but they do boast a formidable defensive front. They had four players with at least eight sacks last season, and while Samson Ebukam will miss the year with a torn Achilles, first-round pick Laiatu Latu is ready to take his spot in the rotation. He was the best pure pass-rusher in the draft, racking up at least 10.5 sacks in back-to-back seasons, and he’s one of the favorites for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
If it’s not abundantly clear—I’m bullish on this team heading into 2024. I definitely think they can win more than 8.5 games, but I’m looking to go bigger. I like the value with the Colts to win the division at +330, and I think there’s plenty of value in Steichen to win Coach of the Year as well (+1500).
Bets
- Colts to win the Division (+330)
- Shane Steichen to win Coach of the Year (+1500)
TENNESSEE TITANS
- Win Total: 6.5 Over (+118; Caesars), Under (-128; FanDuel)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (+425; DraftKings), No (-550; FanDuel)
- To Win Division: +1000 (Caesars)
- To Win AFC: +8000 (DraftKings)
- To Win Super Bowl: +15000
It’s the dawn of a new era in Tennessee. Derrick Henry and Mike Vrabel are gone after leading the team to at least nine wins in four of six seasons together. They even managed to beat Tom Brady in the playoffs and make it to the AFC Championship, where they ultimately succumbed to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
However, the NFL is a “what have you done for me lately” league, and the Titans have won seven games or fewer in back-to-back seasons. It was time for a change, and I like the direction that the Titans are headed.
Henry will go down as one of the best players in franchise history, but it was clear his best days were behind him. He averaged a career-worst 4.2 yards per attempt last season, but that didn’t stop the Titans from feeding him an NFL-high 280 carries. Ultimately, Henry has led the league in carries in four of the past five years.
No team saw 7-plus-man boxes at a higher frequency than the Titans last year, but that didn’t stop them from trying to establish Henry early and often. It was largely unsuccessful, with the team averaging -0.13 EPA per play and a 29% Success Rate on first down runs with Will Levis under center.
The sad part is—Levis was actually slinging the ball when he got the chance! On first down throws, Levis racked up +0.32 EPA per attempt, 9.4 yards per attempt, and a 52% Success Rate. Removing Henry could actually work out to be a positive if it results in more high-value throws for Levis early in drives.
New head coach and playcaller Brian Callahan brings a pass-first philosophy from his time in Cincinnati. While he was never the offensive playcaller, he helped engineer squads that ranked seventh, second, and third in early-down pass rate over the past three seasons. Even after Burrow went down with an injury, the Bengals were still seventh in early-down pass rate with Jake Browning under center.
The combination of a more QB-friendly system and the WR duo of DeAndre Hopkins and Ridley gives Levis a better chance for success than he had last season. It remains to be seen if he can take advantage, but he’ll at least have a shot. The team’s schedule is also favorable in terms of opposing pass defenses, ranking as the third-easiest overall.
Ultimately, I’m playing Levis and the Titans in two different ways. The first is by playing Levis to have 25+ passing touchdowns on DraftKings (+370). The second is betting on Levis to lead the league in interceptions. The interceptions line is not out yet, but I would expect that market to get posted at some point before Week 1. This ultimately gives us outs regardless of whether or not Levis is actually a serviceable quarterback. Regardless, I expect the passing volume to be cranked up significantly higher in Tennessee than it has been in years.
Bets
- Will Levis 25+ touchdowns (+370)
- Will Levis most interceptions (TBD)
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