2024 NFL Draft Best Bets: Should you Fade Michael Penix?

It’s the week of the NFL draft, and I already have 50-plus bets posted in the Free Picks Channel of the Fantasy Life Discord and logged in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

Over the past five years, I’ve been a top-10 mocker in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest, and historically I’ve done well betting on the draft.

2019: 54-29 (+17.7 units)
2020: 124-88 (+26.2 units)
2021: 158-140 (+32.0 units)
2022: 70-50 (+29.3 units)
2023: 40-68 (+7.7 units)

For those into mock drafts, here are all my live versions as well as my top 100 big board.

Version 1 (Feb. 2023): Post-Super Bowl
Version 2 (Feb. 2023): Pre-Combine
Version 3 (March 2023): Post-Combine
Version 4 (April 2023): Post-Free Agency
Version 5 (April 2023): Two Weeks Away
Version 6 (April 2023): One Week Away
Version 7 (April 2023): Week of
Big Board (April 2023): Top 100

As I make additional bets, I will post them first in our Discord and then in our Bet Tracker.

All odds are from the following sportsbooks.

Here are a few of my NFL Draft best bets on the board as of this writing (Tuesday, April 23).

2024 NFL Draft Best Bets

ACC Round 1 Players Under 4.5

Book: Caesars
Odds: -380
Projection: -2000

I talked about this bet on the Betting Life NFL draft best bets show earlier this week with Luke Swain (aka Vegas Refund), and it’s the only bet (so far) that I’ve bet and logged twice.

Early this month, I bet it at -250 (Caesars) and then yesterday I bet it again at -380 (DraftKings).

I still think it’s undervalued, and over the years I’ve noticed that sportsbooks tend to have a harder time pricing conference props. To do it, they need to track much more information, so there are more opportunities for them to get something — and I think this number is wrong.

I use a “wisdom of crowds” approach by aggregating data from the sharpest mock drafters and leveraging their information in the betting market (after adjusting for the potential “echo chamber”).

Out of the 25-plus sharp mocks I’ve perused over the past 10 days, not one has more than four ACC players in Round 1. The average is 3.6.

Let’s look at the realistic ACC candidates to get in Round 1.

QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)
EDGE Jared Verse (Florida State)
OL Graham Barton (Duke)
CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)
WR Keon Coleman (Florida State)
DT Braden Fiske (Florida State)

Maye will go in the top three, Verse has a shot to be the first defender/edge selected and Barton is popularly mocked to the Steelers at No. 20.

But Wiggins goes in Round 1 of just 68% of recent sharp mocks. The over on his draft position total of 26.5 is juiced to -220 (DraftKings), and I have him at No. 26 in my big board. He blazed a position-best 4.28-second 40-yard dash at the combine, but he did so at 173 pounds. It’s not hard to imagine him falling out of Round 1 if the teams picking in the back half don’t want a thinner CB.

Nov 11, 2023; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Keon Coleman (4) returns a punt in the second half against the Miami Hurricanes at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

As for Coleman and Fiske, they’ve each appeared in just 4% of recent sharp mocks. They both have a theoretical chance to get into Round 1, but they’re likely to stick in Round 2 because of notable physical drawbacks: Coleman’s lack of speed (4.61-second 40-yard dash) and Fiske’s short arms (31 inches) and small size (292 pounds).

It’s likelier that we get three ACC players than five in Round 1.

No one likes to bet at heavy juice, but this prop might be the most valuable on the board right now.

Round 1 Wide Receivers Under 6.5

Book: DraftKings
Odds: -300
Projection: -500

I bet this first at -240 (DraftKings) and still like it at the current number.

In 92% of recent sharp mocks, we see fewer than seven WRs. In fact, the average in those mocks is 5.6.

This number should be 5.5, but I understand why it’s 6.5.

This is a strong WR class, so there are more than six WRs who could realistically find their way into the top 32.

Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)
Malik Nabers (LSU)
Rome Odunze (Washington)
Brian Thomas (LSU)
Adonai Mitchell (Texas)
Xavier Worthy (Texas)
Ladd McConkey (Georgia)
Xavier Legette (South Carolina)

The top four are locks, and Mitchell probably should be. But the other three are all on the outside of my top 32 and in less than half the recent sharp mocks.

Georgia wide receiver Ladd McConkey (84) breaks away for a touchdown during the first half of the Southeastern Conference championship NCAA college football game between Georgia and Alabama in Atlanta, on Saturday, Dec. 4, 2021. News Joshua L Jones

It’s not as if Worthy, McConkey and Legette are necessarily undeserving of going in Round 1. In other draft classes, they would all likely be included.

But the supply-and-demand dynamics of this class are working against them.

At WR, this class is stacked, and I expect that depth to push pass catchers just a little down the board. Why draft a WR in Round 1 when you can address a thinner position in the top 32 and still get a quality WR on Day 2?

Based on their quality as prospects, seven WRs probably warrant Round 1 selections, but because of the nuances of this specific class I think we see 5-6 WRs called on Thursday.

Michael Penix Over 32.5

Book: bet365
Odds: +200
Projection: +100

When I bet this yesterday at +190 (DraftKings) and posted it in Discord, I said that I could see how the odds on this prop could get longer, but I didn’t want to risk it and I thought it offered enough value at the current number.

While the market has stayed around +190, it has moved to +200 at one book … and it might continue to move as we get closer to the draft and the hype for Penix builds.

So the timing of this bet is at your discretion.

But I generally want to fade the idea of Penix and am comfortable doing so in the present market.

Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) drops back to throws a pass during the second quarter against the Michigan Wolverines in the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

QBs are regularly overmocked. I can see how we get five in Round 1. Most mocks lean in that direction. Some mocks have six Round 1 QBs, which would tie the record set by the historic 1983 class.

But Penix looks a lot like the type of QB who gets Round 1 hype but goes near the top of Round 2.

Penix will turn 24 years old shortly after being drafted. He played six years in college, four of which ended prematurely because of injuries (two ACL tears, two shoulder dislocations).

That’s unprecedented stuff for a Round 1 QB.

Sure, Brandon Weeden — 12 years ago, in the analytical dark ages — was drafted in Round 1 and played as a 29-year-old rookie. But he’s the outlier, didn’t have Penix’s injury history and the fact that he was a bust is pertinent: GMs can look at Weeden and say, “Yeah, maybe let’s not draft in Round 1 the guy who is old enough to have a 401K … and also has a novel-length medical chart.”

This is not a knock on Penix as a prospect. I can imagine him having a perfectly fine career à la Andy Dalton and Derek Carr (both Round 2 QBs). His college production speaks for itself.

I’m just acknowledging how things work in the NFL: QBs get overhyped in the pre-draft process relative to where they go off the board, and Penix does not at all fit the profile of a Round 1 QB (much less a successful Round 1 QB).

I might be wrong. If I am, I’ll definitely pay for it.