MVP is one of the more fun NFL markets to track every season. It gets a ton of attention from the media and creates a lot of back-and-forth discussion online. Last year, many sharp bettors had a great time debating between Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy, who were neck and neck for this award late into the season, right up until Purdy had an ill-timed meltdown game (against Jackson’s Ravens). This essentially caused everyone to turn on him and allowed Jackson to cruise home to an easy win. 

Some people were happy about the turn of events, others were not. 

In the end, Jackson won, getting 49 of a possible 50 first-place votes, while Purdy fell to fourth in voting. 

Despite winning in such dominant fashion, Jackson’s win wasn’t without controversy. The Ravens QB ranked outside the top five in a lot of key efficiency metrics that are often used as indicators to determine which QB is the most deserving of the award (more on that below). 2023 was also somewhat unique as it saw RB Christian McCaffrey finish third in MVP voting. The last time a non-QB won the award was in 2012 when Adrian Peterson took home MVP honors. 

Before we get to the picks, I’m going to lay out a few trends and also provide the odds from the past 10 winners of this award in a table below. MVP does tend to generate a lot of discussion, but it’s also been one of the simpler awards to handicap from a betting perspective in many ways, thanks to a few key indicators that most MVP winners have held in common over the last 10 years. 

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NFL MVP Betting Trends

I went back and looked at every MVP winner over the last decade. There are three things that almost every winner of this award has held in common. 

They identify as a QB

Every single MVP winner since 2012 has been a quarterback. Last season, we saw an RB go for 21 TDs and over 2,000 all-purpose yards while carrying his team to the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The best he could manage was a third-place finish. 

I’m not necessarily against betting non-QBs if the odds are big enough (and there is one name I’m considering this season), as all trends like this eventually end at some point. Just know that the odds are very much against you if you are betting on someone who doesn’t play the QB position. 

Their team finishes 1st (or 2nd) in their respective conference

Over the past decade, eight of the last 10 winners of NFL MVP have led their teams to a first-place finish in their respective conferences. Those two winners who failed to secure a No. 1 seed were Tom Brady (2017) and Matt Ryan (2016). The Patriots and Falcons went 13-3 and 11-5 in those respective seasons and finished as the No. 2 seeds in their conferences. 

Even if you like the player, if you don’t think his team has the depth or coaching to post 12+ wins, the odds are slim that he’ll be able to overcome the stigma of being on a team that finishes outside of the top two seeds.

He’s a leader in EPA + CPOE composite 

EPA (expected points added) and CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) are two advanced stats used to help identify the league’s most valuable signal callers. The winner of the MVP award has finished first in combined the EPA + CPOE composite metric in eight of the past 10 seasons. 

The two players who won MVP without finishing first in EPA + CPOE composite were Cam Newton (8th in EPA + CPOE; 2015) and Lamar Jackson (7th in EPA + CPOE; 2023). Both men also put up big rushing totals (as QBs) and led their teams to  first-place finishes in their respective conferences. 

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Odds to win 2024 NFL MVP

The top 10 players in odds to win the 2024 NFL MVP Award are listed below, with best odds courtesy of our Futures Tracker.

*Odds updated: 9/3/24

NFL MVP past 10 winners

MVP Best Bets

Jordan Love (+1500; Caesars)

Love ended last season with a flourish, becoming one of the most efficient QBs in the league down the stretch. Between Week’s 9-18 the 25-year-old ranked third overall in EPA + CPOE composite (QBs with 100 plays or more) and was second in that stat between Weeks 12-18. 

Love also did all this with a group of receivers that included three different rookies playing significant roles, and with arguably his best big-play threat Christian Watson battling injuries all season. Watson has spent a lot of time trying this summer trying to figure out his nagging hamstrings, and if the 6-foot-4, 4.36 speedster can stay on the field, there is a good chance we’ll see a next level of upside unlocked with Love in 2024. 

When it boils down to it, the Packers are a team whose upside I want as much exposure to as possible. They’re young and are led by a great head coach in Matt LaFleur, who has produced three 13-win seasons in his five years with Green Bay. They also beat Detroit, Kansas City, and Dallas down the stretch in 2023-24 and had San Francisco dead to rights in the NFC Conference Championship. They’ll have as good a shot as anyone at grabbing the first seed in the NFC this season and, if they do, Love should (rightfully) get plenty of the accolades for it. 

I’d currently play Love down to +1,200 as his current odds seem to underrate his potential (and his team’s) heading into his second year as the starter. 

Kirk Cousins (+4000; BetMGM)

Cousins moved from a tough situation in Minnesota this offseason—the Vikings project to be the worst team in the NFC North in 2024—to what appears to be a pure goldilocks scenario in Atlanta. The Falcons have the easiest schedule in the league in 2024 (by win Vegas win totals) and are currently -120 favorites on BetMGM to win the NFC South—which projects to be one of the weakest divisions in football. 

Additionally, while Atlanta graded out as one of the heaviest run teams in the league in 2023 (4th in rush play percentage) they figure to pass the ball plenty under new OC Zac Robinson, a former QB coach/passing game coordinator for the Rams who helped both Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford throw for over 4,500 yards in a season. Losing Justin Jefferson hurts, but replacing him with a QB-friendly OC and a trio of Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts isn’t a bad tradeoff. 

The Falcons will still have to beat out conference stalwarts like San Francisco and Philadelphia for the No. 1 seed, but will have a decent shot at posting a 12+ wins under Cousins, who ranked fifth in EPA + CPOE composite last year among QBs with 100 or more plays. 

Having put to rest concerns about his Achilles injury with a great start to camp, I’d happily play Cousins down to at least +3,300 right now. On 
BetMGM, he’s more than double the odds of the other three NFC QBs currently favored to win their respective divisions (Goff, Hurts, Purdy), which seems to be vastly understating Cousins’ upside in this weaker division for 2024. 

Dak Prescott (+2500; Caesars)

As Geoff mentioned above, there are really only a handful of players who can win MVP each year. If you focus only on players who are quarterbacks for the best teams in football, it’s not that hard to land on the potential winner. It’s an award where you typically don’t want to go too far down the leaderboard, but guys in the +2,000 to +4,000 range are certainly in play.

Prescott checks all the boxes for me entering 2024. He was in contention for the award last season, leading the league in completions and touchdown passes but ultimately finishing as the runner-up. If not for a pair of late-season losses to the Bills and Dolphins, Prescott could’ve won the award last year.

The Cowboys are once again to expected to be one of the best teams in the NFC. Their preseason win total sits at 9.5, trailing only the 49ers, Eagles, and Lions. The Cowboys have also clearly become Prescott’s team. The days of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard siphoning touches from him are in the past. Dallas was sixth in Pass Rate Over Expectation last year, so they let Prescott air it out a bunch.

In addition to the volume, Prescott also has the efficiency. He was second in EPA + CPOE composite last year, trailing only Purdy and the vaunted 49ers’ offense. We’ve already seen Purdy get a lack of respect in this market, so Prescott basically clears the field in this category.

With a bona fide stud to lean on in CeeDee Lamb, Prescott has literally everything going for him. The only knock on him is his postseason track record, but the MVP is a regular-season award, making +2,000 feel generous.

Tua Tagovailoa (+2500; BetMGM)

Tagovailoa is another player we’ve seen MVP-caliber production from in the past, so it’s not a huge stretch to think he can do it again. He helms one of the most potent offenses in NFL history, and he led the league with more than 4,600 passing yards last season.

There were two big knocks on his MVP candidacy last season. The first was his 29 touchdown passes, which put him below the top tier of quarterbacks. However, the Dolphins had an extreme imbalance in terms of rushing vs. passing touchdowns. Raheem Mostert had 6.5 rushing touchdowns above expected last year, while De'Von Achane was at +4.4. That’s 11 touchdowns more than you’d expect for their top two running backs, which could potentially get filtered to the passing game in 2024.

The second knock is that Tagovailoa is extremely reliant on Tyreek Hill. Hill finished above Tagovailoa in MVP voting last year, racking up 1,799 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. He’s one of the top offensive weapons in football, so it’s not surprising that he was responsible for a huge chunk of Tagovailoa’s production.

However, the Dolphins’ passing attack should be a bit more balanced this season. Jaylen Waddle should see more production with better health, while the team added Odell Beckham Jr. in the offseason. Hill isn’t going away, but don’t be surprised if the production is a bit more spread out in 2024.

Tagovailoa still has to prove that he can produce in colder weather, but he’s capable of racking up stats with the best of them. At a minimum, this ticket gives us some hedge opportunity if he gets off to another fast start.