The 2025 NFL draft is over, so it's officially time to start looking ahead to the 2025-26 college football season and break down the 2025 Heisman Award betting odds, thinking about the guys who have a shot to win the trophy.

I freely admit that I'm not a college football expert. That's Thor Nystrom. For college, my main focus is projecting prospects to the NFL, not predicting how they'll perform in any given season of their undergraduate careers.

That said, there's correlation in the betting markets for odds to win the Heisman and odds to go No. 1 in the 2026 NFL draft. (By the way, check out my way-too-early 2026 mock draft.)

Correlation Between 2025 Heisman Odds and 2026 No. 1 Pick Odds

Here are the odds for the top 10 to go No. 1 (DraftKings).

• Arch Manning: +225
• Drew Allar: +275
• Garrett Nussmeier: +500
• LaNorris Sellers: +900
• Cade Klubnik: +1200
• T.J. Parker: +2500
• Caleb Downs: +2500
• Keldric Faulk: +2800
• Francis Mauigoa: +3500
• Carson Beck: +3500

And then here are the odds for the top 10 to win the Heisman.

• Arch Manning: +700
• Garrett Nussmeier: +900
• Drew Allar: +1000
• Cade Klubnik: +1400
• Jeremiah Smith: +1400
• Julian Sayin: +1500
• Dante Moore: +1800
• LaNorris Sellers: +2000
• Carson Beck: +2200
• Gunner Stockton: +2500

These lists aren't identical, but four of the top five are the same and six of the 10. And that makes sense. If a guy is to go high in the upcoming draft, he probably will have a great final season of college and be in the running for various awards.

So if you want to get a sense of the prospects we're likely to be talking about next spring, you might as well look at the guys the betting market likes right now to win the Heisman.

Here are some general notes on the Heisman Trophy and then the top 10 in odds to win it this year.

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Heisman Trophy Historical Breakdown

Although WR/CB Travis Hunter took home the award last year, the extraordinariness of what he accomplished as an elite two-way player serves to highlight the extent to which this is primarily a QB honor.

If a non-QB doesn't do something exceptional—like earn both the Fred Biletnikoff and Chuck Bednarik Awards as the most outstanding receiver and defensive player of the year in college football—then he's very unlikely to win the award.

If we look at the past 25 Heisman Trophy winners, we see this breakdown.

• QB: 20
• RB: 3
• WR: 2

So that's a historical Heisman hit rate of 80% at the QB position for the past quarter of a century. The only non-QBs to win the award in this timeframe are RBs Reggie Bush (2,218 yards, 19 TDs), Mark Ingram (1,992 yards, 20 TDs), and Derrick Henry (2,310 yards, 28 TDs), and WR DeVonta Smith (1,862 yards, 25 TDs) and the aforementioned Hunter.

With the exception of Hunter (who's in a class of his own as a generational college player), what do all these non-QBs have in common?

• They all entered college as highly recruited players (4-5 stars).
• They all played at powerhouse programs (USC, Alabama).
• They all put up big numbers in seasons that saw their teams either win a championship or play in the title game.

So, essentially, the Heisman usually goes to a quarterback with a good chance to go No. 1 or to a running back or wide receiver who has elite talent and the opportunity to showcase it in a spotlit situation.

You'll note that in the past 25 years, not one defender has won the award (with the exception of the exceptional Hunter). Players who line up only on defense need not apply.

Top 10 In Betting Odds To Win The 2025 Heisman Trophy

QB Arch Manning (Texas): +700

You know who Manning is.

Blessed with five-star genetics as the grandson of QB Archie Manning and the nephew of QBs Peyton Manning and Eli Manning, he was the No. 1 player in the 2023 recruitment class.

A backup to QB Quinn Ewers for the first two years of his career, the 21-year-old Manning has flashed in limited action (11.2 AY/A), and although he is a classic pocket passer, he also has exhibited better-than-expected running ability (25-108-4 rushing last year, sacks included).

It's not a certainty that Manning will choose to leave college after just one year as a starter. In fact, I'm skeptical that he will.

Even so, he's a worthy and understandable frontrunner to go No. 1 in the draft next year—and to win the Heisman this year.

QB Garrett Nussmeier (LSU): +900

The son of Doug Nussmeier—a former NFL QB and current NFL QBs coach (currently with the Saints)—Nussmeier the Lesser entered college as a four-star recruit and then served as a backup for his first three seasons at LSU before ascending to the starting role last year, when he impressed with 4,052 yards and 29 TDs passing.

A 23-year-old redshirt senior, Nussmeier might have a Joe Burrow-esque shot to go off in his final and second season as a starter for the Fighting Tigers on his way to a national title, the Heisman, and No. 1 pick.

That probably won't happen. But it might.

QB Drew Allar (Penn State): +1000

Like Manning, Allar is just 21 years old—but he already has two years of starting experience and has improved each year in college.

• 2022 (Backup): 58.3% completion rate | 7.1 AY/A | 344 PaYds
• 2022 (Starter): 59.9% completion rate | 7.8 AY/A | 2,631 PaYds
• 2024 (Starter): 66.5% completion rate | 8.8 AY/A | 3,327 PaYds

A pro-style pocket passer, Allar entered college with 4-5 recruitment stars and was one of the top QBs in the 2022 class.

Given his combination of youth and experience—and the fact that he doesn't play in the SEC—Allar intrigues me as a Heisman option.

QB Cade Klubnik (Clemson): +1400

Like Allar, Klubnik was one of the top QBs of the 2022 recruitment class (4-5 stars), he has two years of starting experience, and he doesn't play in the SEC.

But he's older (turns 22 in October), and his career passing efficiency isn't as good (7.2 AY/A vs. 8.2 for Allar).

Klubnik is a fine runner (463 yards, 3.9 yards per attempt last year, including sacks), but he just strikes me as the lesser version of Allar.

WR Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State): +1400

Oh, baby.

Smith turns just 20 in November, but he dominated last year as a true freshman with a team-best 76-1,315-15 receiving for the championship-winning Buckeyes, and it's not as if that was a fluke, given that he was the consensus No. 1 player in the 2024 recruitment class.

If Smith were to win the Heisman as a non-QB sophomore, that wouldn't be unprecedented: Ingram won the award in his second season at Alabama.

And Smith definitely checks the box as a guy who can pile on the production at a powerhouse program in a championship-contending campaign: We just saw him do that last year, and he could be even better as a collegiate veteran.

The odds are always against a WR receiving the award, but Smith looks very much like the prototypical non-QB Heisman winner.

He legitimately could be 2019 Ja'Marr Chase—except bigger, faster, and coming off a much better first season in college.

QB Julian Sayin (Ohio State): +1500

A five-star recruit and the No. 2 QB in the 2024 class, Sayin enrolled early at Alabama at the tail end of the 2023 season—basically right when his final highschool campaign ended—but then when HC Nick Saban retired in January 2024, Sayin transferred to Ohio State, where this past year he was the third-stringer behind QBs Will Howard and Devin Brown.

Sayin is clearly talented, but with just one real season and five pass attempts in college to his name, he's a total projection for 2025.

QB Dante Moore (Ohio State): +1800

Moore feels like another (but more experienced) version of Sayin. A unanimous five-star pocket-passing recruit, Moore was a top-three QB in the 2023 class before enrolling at UCLA, where he eventually earned the starting job as an 18-year-old true freshman.

But Moore's first college season was modest (53.5% completion rate, 6.7 AY/A), and after the regular season ended for UCLA he immediately entered the transfer portal and a couple weeks later signed with Oregon, where last year he was the backup to QB Dillon Gabriel, who himself was No. 3 in Heisman voting in 2024.

As the presumptive starter of a team that won the Big Ten last year with a 9-0 record and finished the season ranked No. 3 in the final AP poll, Moore certainly has upside.

But he attempted just eight passes last year.

Like Sayin, Moore is a total projection for 2025.

QB LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina): +2000

Sellers has my attention. He entered college as a dual-threat passer with "only" 3-4 recruitment stars, and he turns just 20 years old in June, but I think that means he has room to develop.

He did little as a backup in 2023 (just four pass attempts … for 86 yards and two TDs), but his 2024 campaign catches my eye (65.6% completion rate, 8.6 AY/A, 166-674-7 rushing with sacks).

I think it's to Sellers' benefit that he hasn't changed schools in college. That means he has had the entirety of his undergraduate career to learn and master the offensive system under HC Shane Beamer and OC/QBs coach Dowell Loggains. I think that institutional continuity gives Sellers a great chance to progress this year, and that could mean an AY/A approaching 10.0 and a rushing total of perhaps 1,000 yards.

And if he hits those marks, he could be in the running for the Heisman.

Look at it this way: Sellers is +900 to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft. If he ends up being the top overall selection, there will be a good chance that he had an exceptional (and maybe even Heisman-winning) campaign this year.

QB Carson Beck (Miami): +2200

Meh.

Beck has already been in college for five years (his first three as a backup), and although he was productive over the past two seasons as a starter (68.4% completion rate, 8.9 AY/A), the fact that he's transferring from Georgia to Miami feels like a bearish indicator.

Plus, Beck adds almost nothing as a runner (245 yards rushing for career, including sacks).

Beck was a four-star recruit in the 2020 class, and his college production has been acceptable, but the odds of a sixth-year college QB markedly elevating his game at a new school after spending half a decade at another institution seem low.

QB Gunner Stockton (Georgia): +2500

Stockton enrolled early and redshirted at Georgia in 2022 and then backed up Beck in 2023-24.

Now, with Beck gone to Miami, Stockton finally has the opportunity to start for the Bulldogs.

A four–star recruit in high school, Stockton has talent—but like Sayin and Moore, he's an unknown for 2025. And what we've seen is fine but unremarkable: He has a good 68.7% completion rate on 83 career passes, but his 6.7 AY/A leaves much to be desired.

And for a QB who entered college as a dual-threat recruit, Stockton's 50 rushing yards on 32 career attempts (including sacks) is a subpar number.

For context: Stockton is +8000 to go No. 1. If you like Stockton to win the Heisman this year, then you might as well bet on him to go at the top of the board in next year's draft at far longer odds … but the fact that his No. 1 odds are so long makes me skeptical of him as a top-10 preseason Heisman candidate.

Potential 2025 Heisman Winner Bets

If I had to place three Heisman bets today, these would be the ones.

• QB Drew Allar (Penn State): +1000
• WR Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State): +1400
• QB LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina): +2000

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