A Casual's Guide To Conference Championship Weekend
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, we're catching you up on everything you need to know to sound like an expert on the college football slate ... and make a little money along the way.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
I’ve always been a “quality over quantity” guy. If you’re giving me $100 to spend somewhere, I’m likely buying one $100 item as opposed to ten $10 ones. Maybe that’s not the same for everyone, but give me a couple of big-ticket items over a handful of smaller ones every day of the week.
With that in mind, this might be the best college football weekend of the year. Saturday’s slate only features four games, but they’re four absolute bangers. The biggest spread across these four contests is just 3.5 points, and they’re all riddled with playoff implications.
My only complaint is the way these games were spaced out. We’ve got one game at noon ET, one at 4:00, and two at 8:00 We couldn’t have made each of these a standalone contest? Seriously, why should I have to bop between the Big Ten and ACC Championship games; they should each get their own respective fanfare.
Still, it’s a minor complaint at best. It’s still a wonderful college football Saturday, and you can bet I’ll be planted in front of my television for all of it.
Let’s break down all four of these contests: when to watch, what’s at stake, and what to look for in some of the most important matchups of the year.
OUR BEST BETS FOR THE CFB SLATE
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Watercooler: Fantasy football matters, too, especially in Week 14!
- How to watch each of Saturday’s four CFB conference championships
- Thor Nystrom’s Best Bets for Conference Title Games
☕️ Rise and grind. The Week 15 College Football Pregame Show kicks off at 10 a.m. ET.
🏈 Don’t forget about the NFL! Geoff Ulrich breaks down his favorite player prop bets.
🎟 It’s your last chance to punch a ticket to the fantasy playoffs. Ian Hartitz, Dwain McFarland, and Matthew Freedman argue their Week 14 rankings.
💰 The Bellafatto build is back for NFL Week 14. This week’s theme? It’s all about Saint Nick.
🍿 Get your popcorn ready. George Pickens vs. Greg Newsome feels like a heavyweight fight.
Casual Fan’s Guide to Conference Championship Week
by Matt LaMarca
Iowa State vs. Arizona State (-1.5)—Noon ET on ABC
The first game of the day is a playoff game in the truest sense of the word. The winner of this contest advances to the college football playoff; the loser has to settle for a bowl game that none of the players are going to want to be a part of. The stakes don’t get much higher than that.
The fact that these two teams have even made it to this point is pretty shocking. Colorado and BYU seemed destined for a collision course not that long ago, but both teams faltered down the stretch. Meanwhile, ISU and ASU have played some of their best football in recent weeks.
Arizona State is led by a handful of transfer players from the past two years, including Cam Skattebo at running back and Sam Leavitt at quarterback. It’s simply tough to stop everything this offense brings to the table. They can beat you with the run, the quick passing game, and the deep ball, so they’re a matchup nightmare.
Iowa State’s offense is a bit less impressive on paper, but they’ve gotten the job done all year. When combined with their defense, they’re arguably the more complete team.
The betting action in this contest has been pretty even, with both sides receiving roughly 50% of the dollars. This looks like a true coin flip, which is exactly what you’re hoping for in a conference championship.
Georgia vs. Texas (-3.0)—4 p.m. ET on ABC
The stakes aren’t quite as high for this showdown. Both of these teams are in the playoffs regardless of the outcome, with the winner likely finishing as the No. 2 overall seed. That would give them a bye in the first round of the playoffs.
These two squads have already met once this season, with Georgia winning in a rock fight. Neither offense could get anything going. It was so bad for Texas that they benched Quinn Ewers near the end of the first half. Unfortunately, Arch Manning could not fare any better, so Ewers was reinserted at the start of the second half.
Ewers was expected to contend for the Heisman Trophy this year, but he has simply not lived up to expectations. He missed time with an injury, but even when healthy, he’s been pretty mediocre. He’s merely 11th among SEC quarterbacks among 100 dropbacks in QBR in conference play.
Ewers is going to need to play better if Texas is going to win this matchup. Texas also boasts an elite defense of its own, so points should be at a premium in this matchup.
Penn State vs. Oregon (-3.5)—8 p.m. ET on CBS
This is another game where both teams are solidly in the field, but this matchup could be for the No. 1 overall seed. That doesn’t feel particularly fair for Oregon—who is the lone unblemished team in college football—but if they can’t win the Big Ten championship, they’ll slide all the way down to No. 5.
For Penn State, this game is all about proving they belong. They’ve breezed through an easy schedule this season, dropping their only real test against Ohio State. It’s something we’ve seen time and time against from James Franklin’s squads.
Franklin is one of the most profitable coaches in recent history…as long as he’s facing an inferior opponent. Against unranked foes, Franklin is a sparkling 56-34-5 ATS since taking over at Penn State. He drops to 14-19 ATS against ranked opponents, and he’s 5-9 ATS against top-five squads.
No team needs a statement win more than Penn State. If they get it, they’ll have a chance to ride that momentum to a possible championship. If they don’t, it could be another early exit.
Clemson vs. SMU (-2.5)—8 p.m. ET on ABC
Clemson needs to send a thank you card to Syracuse, who knocked off Miami last week. That’s the only reason they’re in this contest and the only reason they have a chance to make the playoffs. Winning the ACC championship is their only path forward; if they lose, it will unofficially mark the end of another disappointing campaign.
The stakes aren’t quite as high for SMU. They have just one loss on the year, so they should be pretty safe even with a loss to Clemson. That said, their road would become a lot more arduous. Instead of having a first-round bye, they’d likely be on the road against a Big Ten or SEC foe.
From a betting standpoint, sharp money has flown in on SMU in this spot. They actually opened as slight underdogs, but they’ve been bet all the way up to -2.5. The pros clearly believe in this team; now it’s up to them to prove they belong.
WHAT ABOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK 15 SLATE?
Best Bets for The Big 10 Championship
- by Thor Nystrom
Below is one of my best bets for the weekend in college football, which is a mix of picks on the spread and player props.
Because the College Football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately—as they happen—into our College Football free bets tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move.
Note: “Adjusted Thor Line” is my model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, there's a full College Football Game Model based on my projections.
Oregon vs. Penn State
- Current odds: Oregon -3.5
- The game model says: Oregon -5.9
Good news for Oregon on the injury front in advance of this game.
The Ducks got WR1 Tez Johnson back from injury in last week’s win over Washington. Johnson finished with three catches for 36 yards and a TD in that game. He’s a full-go for Saturday.
The same appears to be the case for star Oregon DL Jordan Burch. Burch logged 26 snaps against Washington in his return to action. He should be in line for more in this crucial matchup.
On the Penn State side, WR Harrison Wallace III is listed as questionable. Wallace, Penn State’s top receiving option outside of TE Tyler Warren, missed last week’s game with an undisclosed injury.
We only have one play in this game. We’re going over on Tez Johnson’s 5.5 reception number. Johnson was knocked out of the game against Michigan and worked his way back in last week against Washington.
Prior to that, Johnson went over this number in seven of eight games to begin the season. He had seven or more in six of those eight games, and double-digit catches in three of them.
Thor’s Bet: Oregon WR Tez Johnson Over 5.5 Receptions
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RELATED CONTENT
- Thor also breaks down how he’s betting the ACC title game.
- Interested in more? His entire betting breakdown for Week 15 is live.
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