Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets For Week 9: Chase Brown Primed For Paydirt
Geoff Ulrich breaks down his favorite anytime TD scorer bets for Week 9, including Chase Brown, Brock Bowers, and more.
Don't lock in your card this weekend without Geoff's anytime touchdown scorer bets for Week 9:
TD props are a fun way to be football. Who doesn’t love cashing in on big plays and guys finding paydirt? At the same time, the overall TD market is often laden with poor to questionable pricing as books generally have a big hold on many of the TD bets they offer.
There are also pockets of value to be found in this kind of market and every week I’ll be going through trying to find the best TD props for you using the FantasyLife+ NFL player projections. We’ll also be line shopping with the Fantasy Life prop finder tool, which allows you to shop for the best prices across all the major sportsbooks in a flash.
Let’s dive into Week 9 and see what the FantasyLife+ tools can unearth for the next big slate of the season.
Week 9 Anytime TD Scorer Bets
Chase Brown Anytime TD
- Best Price: -125; BetMGM
Brown’s TD price has come down as the season has progressed, but I’m still not convinced it’s short enough not to bet in this matchup against the Raiders with Zack Moss out. The second-year back has become the RB of choice for the Bengals, taking 27 carries over their last two games to Moss’ 11.
Moreover, while Moss began the season as the clear goal line back last week Brown managed to eat into that role as well, scoring from the four-yard line on a rush against a tougher Eagles rush defense.
It's become clear that Moss’ role is getting more limited, and reduced to hurry-up situations, while Brown is starting to take a bigger role in the red zone. That’s gravy for Brown’s TD prospects, as he’s been scoring, even while ceding most of the carries inside the five to Moss before Week 8.
The Raiders have a bottom-five rush defense that has allowed at least one TD to an opposing RB in all but one game this season, and now Brown gets to tee off against them without his typical backfield competition.
Given both the matchup–and the fact Cincinnati has an implied team total of 27.0 this week–I’d be OK playing Brown down to -130 in this spot.
Brock Bowers Anytime TD
- Best Price: +230; FanDuel
Heading to the other side of the Bengals/Raiders game, I also love this matchup for a potential big game from Brock Bowers, who is facing a bottom-tier pass defense in the Bengals.
Bowers’ usage when the Raiders have been fortunate enough to get into the other team's red zone this season has been somewhat disappointing. He’s only seen an end zone target in one game this season, as Vegas has chosen to look to secondary options or run the ball inside the opposing 20.
While the Raiders' usage of Bowers has been perplexing in some ways, the matchup with the Bengals should force Gardner Minshew’s eyes toward his studly TE. Starting safety Vonn Bell is ranked just 62nd in coverage on PFF (out of all safeties) and as a unit, the Bengals defense has allowed four TDs to the TE position over their last four games. That stretch included a game against Cleveland where David Njoku was given an incredible 14 targets and allowed to produce a 10-76-1 line in Week 7.
Despite Bowers leading all TEs in catches and having a 25% target share on the season, he’s not priced like most teams' leading receivers and is still available in this matchup as big as +230.
While I’m reluctant to trust any Raider on a week-to-week basis, Bowers is easily their best player on offense and up against a defense that has allowed plenty of garbage-time TDs this season to other struggling units like Cleveland and Carolina.
As long as you can get Bowers on the right side of +200, I’m all for playing him for an anytime score this week.
Josh Downs Anytime TD
- Best Price: +240; DraftKings
We’ll head to the Sunday Night game for another receiving TD prop I like, specifically Josh Downs to find the end zone against a suddenly vulnerable Vikings secondary.
Minnesota’s lack of talent at DB was covered up by the great pressure they were getting early on in the season. Still, that pressure has dried up over their last three games and they managed zero sacks against the savvy Matthew Stafford in Week 8, who threw for four TDs in the Rams upset win. Overall, this Vikings defense has now allowed 10 TDs to opposing WRs, the third most in the league.
While this matchup didn’t look very enticing for Downs when Anthony Richardson was starting, now that we know Joe Flacco will be under center, Downs is a player who looks primed for a big week. With Flacco under center in Weeks 4 through 6, Downs averaged 8.0 receptions per game and managed to find the end zone twice, once again a very stout Steelers unit.
While I fully expect Michael Pittman to be involved, Flacco clearly appreciated Downs’ ability to get open from the slot, as he fed him 50% of the end zone targets in both Week 4 and 6. I won’t be shocked if both the Colts leading WRs score, but with Downs available as big as +240 on DraftKings (where Pittman is just +200), I’d rather lean on the shifty slot receiver in this spot where I expect Flacco to produce multiple passing TDs.
Jake Ferguson Anytime TD
- Best Price: +220; Caesars
The Falcons and Cowboys have a total of 52.0 this week, and a close spread under 3.0, so it’s a game where you almost have to take a long look at if hunting for TD bets. With the Cowboys run game non-existent, their pass catchers also seem more than likely to produce a couple of scores, making TE Jake Ferguson a name I’m interested in backing this week at longer prices.
Ferguson is TD-less through eight weeks, but he certainly isn’t having a poor season. He’s earned a 19% target share and has now come down with six catches or more in four of his last five starts.
Atlanta’s pass defense is also looking like an A+ matchup for any team’s leading WR or TE. They rank 32nd in sacks per game (0.8) and have now allowed 10 passing TDs in their last four starts, ceding two to Bucs TE Cade Otton in Week 8.
I don’t want to use the “he’s due argument” with Ferguson, but I do expect him to start getting more end-zone looks soon (which will eventually lead to scores). He has zero end zone targets on the year, but took 16% of the team’s end zone targets in 2023, suggesting we should see that usage normalize for him at some point in the second half of the season.
With his price sitting over +200, I’m OK taking a stab in this prime matchup that he can deliver us his first TD of 2024-25, and a win at juicy odds for Week 9.
