Are The Commanders A Good Bet To Return To The NFL Playoffs?
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, breaking down the Washington Commanders' playoff and wins odds, and the OKC Thunder are favorites for the NBA title.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
Is there a more interesting team right now than the Commanders? Maybe, but they’re definitely near the top of the list.
The Commanders were a surprise contender in the NFC last year, making it all the way to the conference championship after knocking off the Lions in a stunning upset. Jayden Daniels put together a historically good rookie season, and expectations are predictably high heading into Year 2.
Tough Terrain To Take Command
Those expectations have only gotten higher with the moves the team has made this offseason. They made splash moves by trading for Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil, and they had a host of signings in free agency as well. Overall, Sports Illustrated recently gave them an A- for their offseason.
Naturally, that will make the Commanders a popular target for bettors. They’re currently listed at +1000 to win the NFC, which is the fourth-best mark in the conference.
However, I’m going in the opposite direction. I’m looking at Under 9.5 wins at +100 on BetMGM and to miss the playoffs at +110 on FanDuel. It’s entirely possible that this year’s version of the Commanders is a better team that finishes with fewer wins than last year.
The big difference is the schedule. The Commanders ultimately finished with the second-easiest schedule last year, but after finishing in second place in the NFC East, they’re going to have a much tougher group of opponents this season. They’ll have two matchups vs. the defending Super Bowl champs, while the Cowboys should be better after last year’s disastrous campaign.
Additionally, the Commanders were done zero favors by the schedule makers. They have the third-worst rest edge in the league, and they’ll have to face an NFL-high three teams coming off their bye.
It also wouldn’t be a huge shock if Daniels took a small step back. You don’t have to go back all that far to find a quarterback who posted historic numbers as a rookie only to struggle a bit as a sophomore. C.J. Stroud walked that tight rope just last year. Like the Commanders, the Texans made some splashy offseason moves to support their young superstar quarterback, but they finished with the exact same record they had the year prior.
While the Texans benefited from playing in the AFC South, the Commanders will not have that luxury. Ultimately, there’s enough reason for skepticism, so I’m looking to sell while the general public is looking to buy.
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OKC Ready To Make History
The Thunder have put together a historic run so far this season. They won 68 games during the regular season, which is tied for the fifth-most in NBA history. They had a +12.8 Net Rating, which is second only to the 1995-96 Bulls. For some of our younger readers, that was Michael Jordan’s best team, putting together a 72-10 regular season and a 15-3 postseason en route to a championship. That’s the kind of history that this OKC team is keeping.
Of course, none of this matters if they don’t win the championship. If you don’t believe me, just ask the 2015-16 Warriors. They won 73 regular-season contests, yet all anyone talks about with that squad is blowing a 3-1 lead in the Finals to the LeBron James-led Cavaliers.
The Thunder have completed the first step of their journey, punching their ticket to the NBA Finals on Wednesday. They completed a pretty comfortable gentlemen’s sweep over the Timberwolves, taking care of business in just five games. It was a reassurance of their dominance after being pushed to seven games by the Nuggets in the last round.
Now, all they have to do is cross the finish line.
The best part for OKC? They’re not going to have to deal with the defending champs in the Finals. They’re also not going to have to contend with the Cavaliers, who put together an elite regular season in their own right.
Instead, they’ll have to get past either the Pacers or Knicks. No disrespect to either franchise, but that’s not the caliber of squad you typically expect to see in the NBA Finals.
So, now that the Thunder are officially in, how do we approach them in the betting market? Let’s dive in.
Thundering Looking Like A Slam Dunk For The Title
After the Knicks won Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals, 111-94, to close the gap to 3-2 in their best-of-seven series against the Pacers, the odds still favor Indiana to advance to the finals to take on the Thunder.
Only 13 teams have erased a 3-1 deficit in the NBA playoffs since 1968, and the Nuggets are the only team to do so since the 2016 Cavs. The Nuggets had the best player in the world at the peak of his powers, so it’s tough to put the Knicks in the same conversation.
For the sake of this writeup, I’m going to focus on the lines currently available for the Thunder vs. the Pacers on FanDuel. Those bets are ultimately voided if the Pacers don’t get the job done, so there’s no real downside in exploring them. However, if the Knicks manage to make the comeback, my thoughts on that series would be pretty much the same.
The Thunder are currently listed as 9-point home favorites in Game 1, and they’re -770 to win the series. Those are massive figures, but they’re not all that shocking for those who have been paying attention all season. The Thunder are also -120 to wrap the series up in five games or less, and they’re +320 to win the series 4-0.
Personally, I can’t get behind any bet that isn’t on the Thunder in this series. The Pacers have been excellent so far this postseason, and they closed the year strong in the regular season. After a shaky start to the year, they won 34 of their final 48 games, and they outscored their opponents by +5.3 points per 100 possessions. That was the sixth-best mark in basketball, so they are undoubtedly a good team that was undervalued heading into the postseason.
The only problem? The Thunder had a Net Rating of +13.2 over the same timeframe. That was nearly 5 points better than the Celtics, who were second in the league over that same span.
It’s been more of the same during the playoffs. The Thunder have a +11.2 Net Rating, while the Pacers are at +4.5. These teams simply aren’t in the same weight class.
If anything, it’s possible that the Pacers are the team that is being overvalued at the moment. Indiana has pulled off not one, not two, but three historic comebacks during the playoffs. Their win over the Knicks in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals got most of the attention, but they had equally stunning comeback wins over the Bucks and Cavaliers in the first two rounds. That has given this team a feel of inevitability for some. The term “team of destiny” has been thrown around.
That all sounds great until the ball drops. Indiana is going to have to deal with the most ferocious defense in basketball and the reigning MVP. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may not be the best player in the world—that title still belongs to Nikola Jokic—but he’s capable of dropping 30+ points every time he takes the floor. The rest of the roster earned their stripes in that battle vs. the Nuggets, and guys like Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren appear ready for the next level.
We’ve yet to see what happens with the Pacers when they get punched in the mouth. They’ve been in cruise control in each of their first three series. The last time they fell behind in the playoffs, they were being swept by the Celtics in last year’s conference finals.
Ultimately, there’s value with the Thunder -2.5 games at -120. I’ll also be sprinkling some exposure to a sweep, though I see the most likely outcome as a five-game series.
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