Instant Reactions And Early Bets After 2025 NFL Schedule Release: 49ers Primed For Bounceback
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, an early look at advantages after the 2025 NFL Schedule Release, the 49ers are primed to bounce back, and MLB futures.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
There’s nothing like a marquee NFL event to get us through the doldrums of May. It can be a sad time of year as an NFL fan, but we got a nice little treat with the schedule release on Wednesday. We already knew who each team would be playing this season, but now we know exactly when they’ll be playing as well.
When And Where Are They Playing?
Where each game falls on the calendar can have a massive impact on your season. Three of the four teams with the biggest rest advantage last season all outperformed regular-season expectations: the Ravens, Vikings, and Eagles. Conversely, the 49ers had the biggest rest disadvantage in the league, and they had a disastrous season. I’m not saying that there’s a perfect correlation between the two, but the NFL is hard enough to begin with. Consistently facing teams that have had extra time to rest and prepare is a potential recipe for disaster.
We’ll have plenty of time to dive into the schedule in the coming months—and I have a few instant reactions later in the newsletter—but we also need to enjoy some of the pageantry that comes along with the schedule release. NFL schedule releases have become increasingly competitive between team social media accounts, and it’s resulted in some absolute bangers. Some of the best from last year featured the Chargers going with a full Sims-themed release, the Broncos featuring F1 superstar Lewis Hamilton, and the Commanders playing a game of “is it cake?” Of course, we also had the Titans bringing back their extremely popular format where they asked non-NFL fans to identify teams on their schedule. It’s all good fun.
Some standouts from this year’s releases:
Arizona Cardinals
What’s better than a social media video? How about a whole-ass music video, featuring starting linebacker Mack Wilson Sr.? The Cardinals pulled out all the stops. Now they just have to hope the team can live up to it.
Philadelphia Eagles
If you got it, flaunt it. The Eagles have earned the right to talk smack after winning the Super Bowl, and they took the opportunity to do exactly that in their release video. Instead of focusing on their opponents, they took 98% of the video to feature the Lombardi Trophy and the Eagles themselves. The opponents were merely listed as “supporting characters.” Personally, I love that level of flexing. It’s the big reason why all my friends hate it whenever I win our fantasy league.
Buffalo Bills
I love a good play on words. Sue me, I’m a writer. AI has become such a huge deal in today’s culture, and personally, I love the idea of someone misinterpreting “ask AI” as “ask Allen Iverson.” The fact that he seemingly has no relation at all to Buffalo just makes this funnier to me.
Now that we’ve sifted through the fun stuff, let’s dive into what actually matters with the schedule release. I’ll also take a look at a couple of MLB futures that have caught my eye recently.
What’s going on around the NFL and more with our merry band of sports nerds!
📺 Get the latest Fantasy Life YouTube shows and shorts right here.
🦅 Breaking News: The Eagles’ front office is good. They headline Thor Nystrom’s NFC rookie class rankings.
🧤 Speaking of rookies, Dwain McFarland has updated his Running Back and Receiver Super Model with the NFL Draft now in the books.
🏆 Matthew Freedman took some time away from grinding the betting streets to break down everything you need to know about dynasty fantasy football.
✏️ I never miss an article from cooterdoodle. This week? 13 ways to improve your fantasy league.
🎇 ICYMI: Dynasty Life is officially here! The second edition went live on Saturday.
🐍 Our staff recently completed a 12-team snake mock draft. Not to brag, but your boy got a couple shoutouts in the “best team” and “best value” segments.
🏀 Down go the Cavaliers. The Pacers officially punched their ticket to the semifinals, cashing some nice tickets for those who backed them.
49ers Set Up For Success
There are simply no excuses for the 49ers not to have a bounceback campaign. They were absolutely decimated by injuries last year, and they had to navigate an absolute bear of a schedule. They had to play the fifth-toughest schedule in the league, and they were also at the largest rest disadvantage in football.
Both of those have been flipped completely on their head for 2025.
Based on opponent preseason win totals, the 49ers will navigate the easiest schedule in football by a pretty wide margin. The Patriots and Saints are the only other teams even in the same ballpark, and they don’t have nearly the same caliber of talent on their roster.
Additionally, instead of being at a 22-day rest disadvantage, they’ll be at a nine-day advantage compared to their opponents. They’ll play exactly zero teams coming off a bye week, and they’ll have the rest edge on four separate occasions. They’ll only be at a disadvantage twice: a one-day disadvantage vs. the Browns and a two-day disadvantage vs. the Bears.
You simply cannot ask for a better recipe for a bounceback season. Just like the Eagles last year, this is a team that is in a prime spot to return to the top of the NFC standings.
The Play: Over 10.5 wins (+110; BetMGM); To Win NFC West (+155; Caesars); To Win Super Bowl (+2000; DraftKings)
The End of an Era in Kansas City?
We all knew the Chiefs were not as good as their 15-2 record during the regular season. They had countless games where they managed to escape with a win late, and they massively exceeded their 10.2-6.8 expected mark. They managed to survive once again in their first two playoff matchups, hanging on against the Texans and Bills, but everything came crashing back to reality in the Super Bowl.
The big question is— is that a sign of things to come?
Any team with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback can only be so bad, but there are definitely some cracks in the armor. They will once again have to navigate a brutal schedule in 2025, which is nothing new for them. They always play a first-place schedule, so they routinely have to square off with the best teams in football. This season, they check in with the sixth-hardest schedule based on preseason win totals.
However, this year they’ll have to navigate an unprecedented stretch of primetime contests. They have five separate primetime outings in the first eight weeks alone. It starts with a matchup in Brazil against the Chargers, immediately followed by a home game against the Eagles (non-primetime). They also have Sunday Night Football matchups at the Giants in Week 3 and vs. the Lions in Week 6, and they’re on Monday Night Football at the Jaguars in Week 5 and vs. the Commanders in Week 8.
As if that wasn’t enough Chiefs’ exposure, they will also take the field on both Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Seriously, is the league so devoid of talent that we have to schedule the Chiefs for a primetime game every other week? It’s ridiculous.
If anyone can overcome this, it’s Mahomes and Andy Reid. They have been doing so for years. But there are reasons to be pessimistic about this bunch heading into next season.
The Play: Under 11.5 wins (-118; BetMGM)
MORE SCHEDULE RELEASE WINNERS AND LOSERS
Kodai Senga to Win NL Cy Young (+1600; Caesars)
Senga is undoubtedly a longshot to win the award. He had just the seventh-shortest odds on Caesars heading into Wednesday’s slate, trailing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Paul Skenes, Zack Wheeler, Hunter Greene, Logan Webb, and Michael King.
The big question is—why?
Senga has been absolutely dominant in his return to the bump in 2025. He’s now made eight starts for the Mets, and he’s pitched to a 1.22 ERA with a 4-2 record. He’s been so good that he allowed one run in his start on Tuesday, and his ERA actually increased.
Senga dominates on the back of one of the most unique pitches in baseball: the “ghost fork.” It is incredibly difficult to differentiate from his four-seam fastball out of his hand, and it makes batters routinely look foolish:
His numbers with the ghost fork this year are absolutely disgusting. Opposing batters have managed a .102 batting average and a .136 slugging percentage, and they’re whiffing 41.8% of the time. Quite simply, it’s one of the most devastating pitches in the league.
There are some reasons to be pessimistic about Senga. His advanced metrics aren’t quite as impressive as his actual ones, and his innings could be limited after missing nearly all of last season.
Still, it’s impossible to ignore what he’s done so far this season. He also plays for one of the best teams in baseball, which should give him plenty of opportunities to pile up wins. Ultimately, he stands out as undervalued at +1600.
Jacob Wilson to Win AL Rookie of the Year (-120; Caesars)
At this point, the AL Rookie of the Year award looks like a three-person race. Wilson is a slight favorite at -120, with KristIan Campbell (+290) and Jasson Dominguez (+420) as the main challengers. No one else is inside +2000, and while that could change in the future, the top-Pthree guys have built up a solid cushion over the first 40-ish games.
It would not be hard to argue that Wilson has the worst long-term outlook of the trio. Campbell and Dominguez were both highly touted prospects, and they are more well-rounded players. Both will likely be better players when all is said and done.
Wilson is more of a one-trick pony, but he does that trick better than just about anyone in baseball. He is simply here to make contact. He does not have time for strikeouts or walks, and he puts the ball in play more than anyone in the league. Wilson has 168 plate appearances and 152 balls in play, which is an absurd frequency.
Wilson is also getting excellent results on his balls in play. He’s currently sitting on a .368 batting average, which trails only Aaron Judge and Freddie Freeman among qualified batters. His expected batting average isn’t quite as good at .317, but that still puts him in the 97th percentile.
Wilson’s advanced metrics also support him being favored. He’s sixth in the entire AL in fWAR, trailing only some of the best players in the league (including Judge and Bobby Witt Jr.). Campbell is merely 98th in AL fWAR, while Dominguez is 160th.
It’s always tricky to back a favorite this early in the season, but I’d argue the gap between Wilson and the other two isn’t nearly wide enough. As long as he stays healthy, I like his chances of taking home the hardware.
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