Are the Vikings Elite? Check The Numbers Before Betting
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, look ahead to Week 15 by examining team totals and EPA per play, betting strategy on the Raiders, plus much more.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
Still shaking off some tilt from last night’s game. Over 750 yards of total offense without going over. Sigh. Last night’s game featured all your classic score killers—multiple interceptions, turnovers on downs, the works. And, of course, Chase Brown’s first-quarter touches were all receptions, which killed our rushing prop.
Having a great betting season nonetheless (+10% ROI) and thirsty to get back on the winning track. At least you know I actually keep skin in the game.
Total Recall: The beginning of each week marks square one to set our foundation for the NFL schedule ahead—and the best place to start that grind comes directly from the books themselves. Remember, the house can’t help but tip its hand by posting live team totals.
For whatever reason, these implied team totals can be unusually hard to wrangle. So, of course, in my never-ending quest to make this newsletter an irreplaceable part of your daily routine, I charted all of this week’s baseline (-110) totals to highlight outliers.
Allow us to do the dirty work so you won’t have to.
TT Takeaways: Usually we start analyzing team totals at the outliers, but I couldn’t help but notice so much consolidation toward the center. This tells me we’re in store for a weekend chock-full of close games. Only the BAL/NYG game boasts a spread greater than 8 points—pretty cool when considering all 32 teams play. We’ve been treated to a great regular season with a fantastic finish on deck. How can you not love this?
Getting back on track, you know my gut instinct is to bet over that measly 14.5 total for the Giants. Honestly can’t remember seeing a baseline TT that low before. But believe it or not, I’m showing restraint. NYG made my toxic do-not-touch list, which brings me to the other thing that jumped out at me—the Raiders. I’ll get more granular down below. Let’s just say generally my toxic teams don’t imply +20 points. Ever.
Baltimore perched atop the board (again) versus Big Blue should shock no one. And seeing a potential Super Bowl preview between two of the top three projected teams gives me chills. However, it’s the Cardinals leapfrogging the Bengals that grabbed my attention. I’m definitely going to take a closer look during the week—Arizona is averaging only ~15 points/game since its bye three weeks ago. Be careful in the crunchy center this week.
Hope you’re finding these charts useful in your research. Good luck!
Total Recall, indeed …
A Happy Tuesday to all of you from everyone here at the Betting Life newsletter! Don’t be shy, contact me anytime on X @JohnLaghezza with questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you! We’re here to help!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Tuesday Charts: Team Expected Points Added Per Play
- No Cap: Never Bet On Black
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🏈 What wide receivers have to be taken seriously as weekly top targets? Dwain’s Utilization Report makes his calls ahead of Week 15.
🧨 Last night’s Ja’Marr Chase blowup was the best WR performance since … Ja’Marr Chase’s last blowup?
👀 The Commanders are coming off a bye and facing the Saints’ walking wounded. Check out LaMarca’s best early-line bet.
🤔 Who are the worst teams against the spread in 2024?
⚖️ Travis Hunter or Ashton Jeanty? Who do you have to win the Heisman Trophy?
Tuesday Charts🧠📊—Team Expected Points Added Per Play
Each week I’ll be presenting the league through the lens of a single image. While no one picture or stat can truly shoulder such a load, learning to take the temperature of each team’s offensive and defensive expected points added (EPA) will sharpen your game—this per-play metric that defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense's likelihood to score.
It provides an analytically dense, perspective-laden snapshot that is absolutely worth familiarizing yourself with.
NOTE: The cross is league average. Also, positive EPA is ideal on both sides of the ball—so in this specific case below, the closer to the upper-right corner, the better a team’s combined performance in both phases.
THE GOOD:
DET/PHI—The NFC’s twin juggernauts are just showing off at this point, currently combining for an unbelievable 20 straight wins. Competition hasn’t mattered either—Philly beat Baltimore, Detroit beat Minnesota and Green Bay twice. Both are perennial double-digit favorites getting off the bus every week, and health feels like the only thing that can stand in the way of deep playoff runs. Who will get the top seed and home-field advantage throughout? That’s still to be determined but don’t count the Eagles out yet—they have a much softer schedule to close out the year.
MIN—What the Vikings have been up to deserves some recognition. Audible groans started in the Twin City a month ago after losing two straight off the bye, followed by a couple more poor QB performances in close wins. However, Sam Darnold has since shown why he deserved to be the third overall pick in 2018. Looking truly settled in during the Vikes’ six-game win streak, he’s up to 11 TDs without an interception while leading the NFL in EPA/Attempt. This team as constituted can win a playoff game.
THE BAD:
ATL—Talk about challenging perceptions regarding ranges of outcomes. Atlanta spent the entire offseason re-tooling with a particular focus on the passing game—and most of us bought into the narrative. Maybe in hindsight, we’ll treat aging quarterbacks with significant lower body injuries more carefully because it’s gotten bad. We’re 14 weeks into the season and Kirk Cousins is still showing signs of difficulty operating under center. And the results couldn’t be worse. Get your barf bag. Not only does Cousins lead the league in interceptions and fumbles, but his current four-game 0TD:8INT run is the first of its kind in nearly 20 years. Still only a game behind TB for the division lead, we can only wonder if and when first-rounder Michael Penix gets the nod.
NYJ—Not to single out the Jets and Falcons, as there are objectively worse teams, but they’re both relatively healthy and lack a good excuse for this level of incompetence. Sorry, not sorry. If anything, let’s try to draw a positive from this mess. NYJ should resonate as an example of defensive production not carrying over between seasons. A big part of our expectations laid on a unit that’s underperformed as an understatement.
THE UGLY:
CHI—Can anyone tell me what in the world happened during the Bears’ Week 7 bye? Hopes couldn’t have been higher at 4-2 going in, with a statement win over the Rams on the ledger. Bake in a little post-bye-rookie-bump and whammo! Bears’ playoff run coming, right? Right? Not so much. Hibernation apparently worked in reverse, as only the Bengals allowed more yards/play this month. Seven straight losses later and searching for answers, at least we can expect them to play hard down the stretch. Keep in mind yet another defensive unit to not fulfill year-over-year expectations.
NYG/LV—The true dregs vying for the first overall pick and testaments to the importance of QB play. Don’t get cute and do anything crazy like bet on these teams. Players always play hard, but coaches will make decisions antithetical to winning.
WEEK 15 NFL PLAYER PROJECTIONS
Under The Radar📡🏈—Never Bet On Black
THE BET: Las Vegas Raiders Under 20.5 Points (-125) DraftKings
Still waiting for these to go online, but it may already have by the time you read this. We’ve all heard the saying “Always bet on black.” Well, it works in reverse, too. I alluded earlier to my “toxic tag.” This very special designation gets reserved for only the very worst teams on the gridiron. I don’t hate bad teams, I love betting underdogs! It’s just that we must eventually draw the line—and where that happens for me is in the broken incentive structure surrounding draft picks. Losing is smart.
We often hear the term tanking, which does not happen at the player level. Players strive to impress on tape at all times. Coaches, however, may have different plans. This manifests in wonky utilization or overly brazen situational calls that are sure to cost points—especially when there could be a franchise-altering quarterback on the other side of those bad decisions.
So here’s the skinny, the Raiders stink. Hard to argue otherwise. Ineptitude doesn’t quite do the season-long offensive macros justice:
- 18.2 Points/Game: 27th
- -9.6 Average Point Differential: 31st
- 41.2% Success Rate: T-28th
- -0.14 EPA/Play: T-31st
- 2:36 Average Time Of Possession: T-27th
- 1.6 First Downs/Drive: T-30th
- 1.6 Points/Drive: T-28th
Las Vegas hasn’t eclipsed 20 points in a full month since the bye, or even once without Gardner Minshew under center. For the record, things have gotten pretty bad when you’re pining for Uncle Rico.
I’ll concede right up front Atlanta’s defense won’t be topping our charts anytime soon. That said, the Falcons tackle well while showing an ability to stop the run, holding the Chargers and Steelers under 20 points. ATL even kept the Eagles and Chiefs under 22 points in back-to-back weeks earlier this season.
As long as Cousins stops throwing interceptions (ducks), we should be good (ducks again). That’s the other side of the Raiders’ coin here. You don’t earn my toxic label just by embarrassing your fans on offense—the LV defense is just as bad, forcing just 22 turnovers all year.
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