Be Like Water (Again)
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, we dive into a rushing prop to target, a TE's reception prop, and the Sharp Hunter game of the week.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:
Be Like Water (again): As a receiving prop bettor deeply entrenched in pass-catching markets, it’s hard not to notice the precipitous drop in aerials leaguewide. How bad is it, you might wonder? Well, Big Johnny Stud’s here to do the dirty work so you won’t have to.
If you feel like you’re taking crazy pills, you aren’t. I dug through the annals of the Trumedia library, an entire decade and as of right now, 2024 marks the stone-cold lowest in:
- Pass Rate (59.0%)—Lowest since 2010
- Dropbacks/Game (35.0)—Lowest since recording began in 2000
- Completions/Game (19.8)—Lowest since 2007
- Passings Yards/Game (192.7)—Lowest since recording began in 2000
- EPA/Attempt (+0.10)—Lowest since recording began in 2000
- Air Yards/Attempt (7.3) —Lowest since recording began in 2006
- Yards/Attempt (6.9)—Lowest since 2008
- Yards/Completion (10.5)—Lowest since recording began in 2000
That said, it’s adjusting to adversity that defines us as traders. Being stubborn and intractable may be the single worst trait any bettor can express. So like they say, if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. Stick around and enjoy what may be the first in a line of many rushing props this season.
Make sure to check out our team’s Free NFL bets in our Bet Tracker for Week 3!
What’s in today’s newsletter?
- Running Against The Wind
- The New York Prop Exchange
Running Against The Wind 🏃🏽♂️🌪️🏈 —White-Knuckle Ride
The secret’s out … the Panthers stink again. You’d be hard-pressed to find a worse rushing defense, Carolina’s bottom-5 in both Defensive Rush EPA/Play and Opposing Rush Success rate (below).
They boast a -61 point differential somehow, through two weeks, worst by a country mile. Constantly being behind multiple scores allows opposing offenses to settle into their ground game throughout, predictably resulting in the second-most rushing yards allowed by the Panthers this season (below).
As your friendly neighborhood handicapper, I’m compelled toward transparency. You will not find a strong bull case for Zamir White or the Raiders’ ground game on the offensive spreadsheets—it’s bad with a capital B. They’re dead last in rush yards, yards/rush, rushing success rate, and bottom-5 in everything else.
However … football is a game of matchups.
Yes, Las Vegas faceplanted twice in terms of ground production. But not only was it against arguably the best run-stuffers in the NFL but also while playing from behind. If you believe in the omnipotence of the house or just the wisdom of the crowd, Las Vegas should be in the perfect game script at Allegiant Stadium for Zamir White.
And don’t get it twisted, White’s utilization is extremely specialized. He will totally dominate snap share in positive game scripts, split work in neutral situations, and straight-up play second fiddle when trailing.
If the Raiders can establish any type of lead, I’m expecting White to dust this line early, with shades of the RB who averaged over 99 RuYd/game across the final month of play last season. Let’s go.
THE BET: Zamir White Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115); BetMGM
Make sure to get the best price on all of your props this week with our NFL Prop Finder Tool!
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The New York Prop Exchange 🏈🏛️—Akin For A Win
With David Njoku already ruled out, Jordan Akins steps into an every-down role with extremely low expectations (just how we like it). Kidding aside, Akins went (3-27) Week 1 with Njoku playing. The TE routes and targets should be concentrated on Akins, who ran 53% of routes in Week 2 with Njoku sidelined. Blake Whiteheart drew just 18% of routes, and did not see a target.
The New York Giants, with Brian Burns expected to play and leading a good pass rush, should get some pressure on QB Deshaun Watson. It will help the Browns' cause that LT Jedrick Wills is making his season debut from a 2023 season-ending knee injury. Still, this is a passing environment where Watson could be looking for Akins on short-to-intermediate passes, and these charts help to tell the story based on the routes that Akins is running.
So why is a projectable full-time player running a full arsenal of routes (above) with success near the line of scrimmage (below) only set at 2.5 receptions?
I don’t know, but I’m not waiting around with my hands in my pockets to find out …
THE BET: Jordan Akins Over 2.5 Receptions (+105) DKSB
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
The keys to a million-dollar lineup are yours. Week 3 NFL DFS plays.
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When they find paydirt … you find a payday.
Don’t finalize your betting slip without using our NFL Game Model to compare our projections to available lines.
Speaking of projections … we have projections for every player on Sunday’s slate.
Sharps are on the UNDER: Lions @ Cardinals
- Presented by Sharp Hunter
- By Mike Mutnansky of Sharp Hunter
Sunday's highest total game is in Arizona, with the Cardinals hosting the Lions.
If you're playing DFS you're probably loading up on this game, right? Indoors, big offense on both sides. Lots of points!
Well, the Sharps we track at Sharp Hunter are locking in on the UNDER. We're showing a Three-Bag Sharp Score on the 51.5 total as of Saturday morning.
I love points. I love high-scoring, back-and-forth games ... but I'm with the Sharps here.
Arizona is the third-slowest team on offense, according to FTN Pace Stats. I could see them trying to run the ball and taking their time and effort to keep the Lions high-powered offense off the field. They've run the ball over 53% of the time this season, the sixth-highest in the NFL. That would help an under bet.
Trends? Oh, the trends.
Over the last two seasons, totals of 50+ are 13-2 to the under. Last three years? 30-11 to the under. This year it's 3-0 to the under in totals over 50 or more per Action Network.
I love offense, but I love money more. I'll tail the sharps here and play under 51.5.
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