Bengals vs Steelers Predictions and Preview For Week 18
Matthew Freedman breaks down everything you need to know for the Week 18 divisional clash between the Bengals and Steelers from a betting and fantasy football angle.
In my Bengals vs Steelers Predictions and Preview for the Week 18 Saturday night matchup, I include my model's game score and player stat projections (via boxscore), which should be useful as a resource for fantasy and betting.
I also …
- Provide general notes on various items (such as betting market data, team trends, weather, travel, rest, injuries, motivation, #RevengeGames, etc.)
- Highlight any potential best bets I have on the game
- Note any players I like to outperform expectations.
Essentially, whatever catches my eye with this game—that's what I'm writing about. Think of this collection of focused miscellany as just part of my “Freedman Files.”
Obligatory notes.
Time Stamp: All data, projections, and analysis are as of Wed., Jan. 1, 5:00 p.m. ET.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest) as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections, all of which are accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription.
You can get 10% off your FL+ sub with the promo code FREEDMAN.
And if you're looking for free betting insights, give our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker a look, as well as our Betting Life Newsletter and all the actionable articles we have on the site.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Week 18 Motivation for Bengals and Steelers
The Steelers are already locked into the playoffs, but if the Ravens somehow—as favorites of more than two TDs—manage to lose to the Browns on Saturday afternoon, the Steelers can win the AFC North and secure the No. 3 seed with a victory over the Bengals.
If, however, the Ravens beat the Browns, the Steelers could still be motivated against the Bengals, given that a win will secure the No. 5 seed. Plus, they're on a three-game losing streak and would probably like to enter the playoffs off a victory.
As for the Bengals, if they lose, they're out of the running for the final wildcard seed. If they win, they have a shot at making the postseason (with a Broncos loss and Dolphins loss/tie).
I expect to see both teams playing to win.
Betting Odds for Bengals vs Steelers Week 18
- Spread & Total: CIN -1.5 | O/U 48.5
- CIN ML: -122 (DraftKings)
- PIT ML: +110 (FanDuel)
Betting data is via our Fantasy Life Odds Page.
A spread of -1.5 means the Bengals need to win by at least two points to cash. If the Steelers win outright or lose by no more than one, they cash. A total of 48.5 means that 49 or more points cashes the over and 48 or fewer points cashes the under. A -122 ML means that a bettor needs to wager $122 to win $100; a +110 ML, $100 to win $110.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow is 3-3 ATS and ML against the Steelers for his career. It would not be a surprise if this game came down to the final play.
Steelers-Bengals Implied Team Totals
- CIN Team Total: 25
- PIT Team Total: 23.5
Implied team totals are derived from spread and total.
Projections for Bengals vs Steelers Week 18
Steelers-Bengals Betting Projections
- Spread: CIN -0.63
- Total: 48.9
- ML: +/-105.9
Bengals-Steelers Final Score Prediction
- Bengals: 24.7
- Steelers: 24.1
Since this projected score is technically impossible, here's my "informed gut" projection: CIN 24, PIT 23.
Steelers-Bengals Projected Odds to Win
- Bengals: 51.4%
- Steelers: 48.6%
Steelers Week 18 Player Projections
Quarterback
| Player | Comp | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends | Bengals Week 18 Player Projections | Quarterback | Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends | ||||||
| Khalil Herbert | 15.1 | 64 | 0.44 | 3.1 | 21.9 | 0.14 | 13.7 | ||
| Trayveon Williams | 3.3 | 13.6 | 0.13 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 0.02 | 3.1 | ||
| Ja'Marr Chase | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0 | 7.4 | 92 | 0.67 | 17.1 | ||
| Tee Higgins | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 5.8 | 72.8 | 0.52 | 13.3 | ||
| Andrei Iosivas | 0 | 0.2 | 0 | 2.3 | 28 | 0.22 | 5.3 | ||
| Jermaine Burton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 4.4 | 0.04 | 0.8 | ||
| Mike Gesicki | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 31.6 | 0.21 | 6 | ||
| Tanner Hudson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 11.8 | 0.1 | 2.4 | ||
| Drew Sample | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Cam Grandy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 0.03 | 0.7 |
Top Fantasy Plays for Week 18 Steelers vs. Chiefs
Steelers Week 18 Fantasy Rankings
Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Steelers in their skill-position groups for Week 18.
- Russell Wilson: QB11
- Najee Harris: RB13
- Jaylen Warren: RB21
- George Pickens: WR14
- Calvin Austin: WR47
- Pat Freiermuth: TE11
Rankings are for half-PPR scoring and differ slightly from projections, which seek to hit the median in a range of outcomes. In contrast, my rankings attempt to take into account ceiling and floor.
For updates, see my weekly fantasy rankings.
With so many players resting and having uncertain playing time for Week 18, several Steelers are ranked higher than they otherwise would be.
Bengals Week 18 Fantasy Rankings
Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Bengals in their skill-position groups for Week 18.
- Joe Burrow: QB4
- Chase Brown: RB15
- Khalil Herbert: RB42
- Ja'Marr Chase: WR1
- Tee Higgins: WR6
- Andrei Iosivas: WR49
- Mike Gesicki: TE15
I have Brown (ankle) currently ranked as a high-end RB2, which is a downgrade from where he usually is. That's my midweek way of saying that I doubt he will play. I currently have him out in my projections—but if he suits up he's an RB2 because of his injury. If Brown is out, then Herbert will upgrade to an RB2.
Betting Records and Trends for Week 18 Steelers vs. Bengals
Steelers 2024 Betting Records
- ATS: 10-6, 20.0% ROI | Underdogs: 5-3, 21.9% ROI | Home: 5-2, 37.5% ROI
- ML: 10-6, 21.7% ROI | Underdogs: 5-3, 48.6% ROI | Home: 5-2, 32.7% ROI
- Under: 8-8, 4.4% ROI | Home: 5-2, 36.3% ROI
Betting performance data is via Action Network.
The Steelers have been strong this year ATS and ML—especially as underdogs and at home —but over the past three weeks, against the superior Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs, they've gone 0-3 ATS and ML.
At home, they've been an under team.
Bengals 2024 Betting Records
- ATS: 10-6, 18.8% ROI | Favorites: 8-4, 26.4% ROI | Road: 7-1, 66.3% ROI
- ML: 8-8, -30.4% ROI | Favorites: 8-4, -7.2% ROI | Road: 5-3, -11.3% ROI
- Over: 11-5, 31.6% ROI | Road: 5-3, 19.8% ROI
The Bengals are somewhat opposite of the Steelers: They've been their best this season as favorites and on the road, where they've been an over team.
Something's gotta give in this matchup of strong home dog vs. strong road favorite.
Steelers Betting Trends
- HC Mike Tomlin: 160-142-7 ATS, 3.8% ROI | 190-116-2 ML, 8.5% ROI
- Tomlin at Home: 83-67-4 ATS, 8.0% ROI | 106-46-1 ML, 12.0% ROI
- Tomlin as Underdog: 64-38-4 ATS, 21.8% ROI | 54-52 ML, 28.6% ROI
- Tomlin Off Loss: 59-45 ATS, 11.3% ROI | 69-40 ML, 11.0% ROI
- Tomlin in Division: 63-45-4 ATS, 13.6% ROI | 76-35-1 ML, 17.4% ROI
- Tomlin as Div Home Dog Off Loss: 6-0 ATS, 90.6% ROI | 6-0 ML, 133.2% ROI
- Tomlin vs. QB Joe Burrow: 3-3 ATS, -3.1% ROI | 3-3 ML, 21.2% ROI
- Wilson in 35 Degrees or Less: 5-8 ATS, -27.2% ROI | 6-7 ML, -11.1% ROI
- Wilson in Wind of 10 mph or More: 12-10 ATS, 6.2% ROI | 16-6 ML, 7.3% ROI
Tomlin has been unremarkable against Burrow—but as a divisional home dog off a loss he is unquestionably in the ultimate “Tomlin spot.”
Even so, this could be a "weather game," and Wilson has been mediocre at best in the elements.
Bengals Betting Trends
- QB Joe Burrow: 46-28-1 ATS, 18.7% ROI | 42-32-1 ML, 3.8% ROI
- Burrow on Road: 27-12 ATS, 32.4% ROI | 21-17-1 ML, 9.0% ROI
- Burrow as Favorite: 27-17-1 ATS, 16.9% ROI | 31-14 ML, 2.4% ROI
- Burrow in Division: 12-12 ATS, -4.6% ROI | 10-14 ML, -31.6% ROI
- Burrow in 35 Degrees or Less: 7-3 ATS, 34.5% ROI | 8-2 ML, 52.1% ROI
- Burrow in Wind of 10 mph or More: 12-5 ATS, 35.2% ROI | 11-6 ML, 27.2% ROI
Burrow has been great on the road throughout his career, but he has also been diminished as a favorite and subpar in division.
That said, he has been dominant in the elements. The weather probably benefits the Bengals more than the Steelers.
Steelers vs. Bengals Injury Report and External Factors
I won't touch on all the players on the injury report, but here are the key injuries that catch my eye.
Steelers: Notable Injuries
- CB Joey Porter (knee): Left Week 16 early and missed Week 17 but practiced fully on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Not one player on the active roster missed practice to open the week. The Steelers are about as healthy as they can be.
Bengals: Notable Injuries
- QB Joe Burrow (right wrist, knee): Was limited on Tuesday and Wednesday, but that looks like maintenance.
- RB Chase Brown (ankle): Exited last week with an injury and has opened the week with back-to-back missed practices. Not good.
- TE Tanner Hudson (knee): Has been out since Week 16 but returned to limited practice on Tuesday and Wednesday.
- TE Drew Sample (groin): Yet to practice this week.
- LT Orlando Brown (fibula): Practicing limitedly but is probably fine after returning to action last game.
- RT Amarius Mims (ankle): Missed last week after practicing every day, so his limited designations on Tuesday and Wednesday might mean little.
- EDGE Sam Hubbard (knee): Last played in Week 15 and hasn't practiced this week.
- DT Sheldon Rankins (illness, NFI-R): Finally moved to the reserve list after missing game action since Week 11.
The Bengals aren't as wounded as they could be—but this week they might be thin at RB, TE, OT, and DL.
Steelers-Bengals External Factors
- Home-Field Advantage: HFA is cut in half in division, but the Steelers still have an edge in that the Bengals play on a synthetic turf surface at Paycor Stadium.
- Travel: This is the second straight home game for the Steelers.
- Rest: The Steelers have a three-day rest-and-prep advantage coming off Christmas.
- Weather: The forecast calls for winds of 12 mph, an 8% chance of snow, and a temperature of 23 degrees (per NFLWeather).
Steelers-Bengals Anytime TD Player Prop
- Khalil Herbert Anytime TD: +120 (DraftKings)
- Proj: 0.58 TDs | +102 to Score
I expect No. 1 RB Chase Brown (ankle) to be out, which puts Herbert in line to work as the main back for one of the league's best offenses. When Brown exited last week, Herbert worked exclusively as the lead back (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
Given that this line is already +105 at FanDuel, I expect it to move if/when we get confirmation that Brown is out.
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
- Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)
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