Best Bets for Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 5: Can Dallas Do It Again?

We may not have a series quite yet, but the Mavericks at least managed to avoid elimination in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. They put together their best performance vs. the Celtics, cruising to an easy 38-point victory. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving combined for 50 points in just over 63 minutes, while the team outscored the Celtics from behind the 3-point line for the first time all series.

Of course, winning Game 4 was just the first step for Dallas. They’re still in a 3-1 hole, and this game will take place back in Boston. Can the Mavs continue to stay alive, or will the Celtics manage to close things out on their home court?

Let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for Game 5.

Best Bets for Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 5

Celtics -6.5 vs. Mavericks (-110; BetMGM)

If you’re a Celtics backer like me, it’s ok to be a bit nervous. After all, the team was just absolutely embarrassed in a potential closeout spot in Game 4. Outside of the first half of Game 1 and the third quarter of Game 3, this series has ultimately been pretty competitive.

Still, I remain convinced that the Celtics are the better team. They’ve been the best team in basketball all season, and one subpar showing in Dallas doesn’t change that fact. Dallas had everything to play for in that contest – especially after Luka was dismantled in the media – while the Celtics knew that game was far from a must-win. Now, it’s the Celtics who have to “prove” themselves in Game 5.

Historically, backing teams in this spot has been good business in the playoffs. Home favorites coming off a double-digit road loss are 134-102-5 ATS since 2005. Excluding the first round, that figure jumps to 75-46-1 ATS (+21.2% ROI).

There’s also the possibility that Kristaps Porzingis returns to the lineup. He’s officially questionable, and it’s unlikely that he will play a huge role even if he does suit up. But if he can give the team 10-15 minutes off the bench? That could be a game-changer.

No team in NBA history has ever managed to erase an 0-3 series deficit, and very few teams have even forced a Game 6. Tell me – do you think a team that starts P.J. Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., and Daniel Gafford is good enough to join them? All three of the Celtics’ wins in this series have come by at least seven points, so if you think they can win the game outright, there’s a good chance they’re going to cover the number.

Player Props for Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 5

Luka Doncic Over 9.5 first-quarter points (-120)

I’ve only recently discovered first-quarter scoring props, and I absolutely love them. There are lots of things that can go wrong with a full game over, but much of that risk is removed by focusing solely on the first 12 minutes.

Doncic has been particularly awesome to target in this market. The over hasn’t even been in sweat in the past three games, with Doncic going for 13 first-quarter points in each contest.

Expect Doncic to stay aggressive in Game 5. He’s had no problem getting to his spots early in games before the Celtics’ defense has had a chance to wear him down. His production has dropped off in the second half, but there’s been no stopping him when he’s fresh early in games. I’d play this up to -140.

Dante Exum Over 1.5 rebounds + assists (-162)

This prop is juiced up significantly, but I still think it provides excellent value on Monday. Exum has proven himself as a solid role player for the Mavericks, and he saw eight first-half minutes in Game 4. He should play around 10-15 minutes again in Game 5, which should be more than enough to hit the over on his current number.

For the series, Exum has averaged 1.3 rebounds and 0.3 assists in just eight minutes per game. However, he played just 2.6 minutes in Game 3. He’s gone over 1.5 rebounds + assists in the other three contests.

It’s important to note that not many of Exum’s minutes in Game 4 came in garbage time. This was a legit change to the rotation for head coach Jason Kidd, who appeared to move Exum above Jaden Hardy in the pecking order. Hardy did not see any playing time in the first half, while 12 of his 13.5 minutes came in the fourth quarter. As long as that trend continues – and it should after a win – Exum should cruise past this number.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

Friday: 2-1 (+0.50 units)
Futures: 9-3 w/ one pending (+1.41 units)
Playoffs: 55-48-1 (+3.045 units excluding futures)

Best Bets for Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 5: Can Dallas Do It Again?