Sunday Night in Week 3 features a matchup between two teams who should be vying for playoff spots by the time Week 18 rolls around, and we're going to dive into our best bets for Falcons vs. Chiefs Sunday Night Football.

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Falcons vs. Chiefs SNF Betting Preview

The Falcons avoided going 0-2 last week after they got a lucky break late in the game on a dropped pass by Saquon Barkley on 3rd and 3, which would have sealed the win for Philadelphia. The Falcons were able to drive the field after forcing a field goal and ended up scoring the game-winning TD on a pass from Kirk Cousins to Drake London.

Atlanta’s passing game has been pedestrian for about 7 of the 8 quarters of football they have played this season, but the second-half production by Cousins against Philadelphia is encouraging. Not only did he manage to complete multiple balls downfield to close out the game, but connected with Darnell Mooney (3-88-1) on a couple of deep passes, one of which went for a TD.

The Falcons have four legitimate receivers, so the fact Cousins was able to spread the ball more should make it harder for teams to stack the box against them and overplay the run. That’s good news for Bijan Robinson, who averaged 6.92 yards per carry (ypc) last week and has 165 rush yards through two games.

The Chiefs haven’t faced a back as explosive as Robinson yet, but they did allow a couple of big chunk gains to Chase Brown (4 carries, 31 yards) last week. Robinson looks like a legitimate breakout candidate and considering how tough the Chiefs secondary is, I’d expect Atlanta to lean on him and Tyler Allgeier (6.16 ypc on the season) early to try and protect the less-mobile Cousins.

On the other side of the ball, Patrick Mahomes is coming off one of his worst games as a pro, as he threw for just 151 yards with two TDs and two INTs in the 26-25 comeback win. Still, Mahomes rarely gets to play indoors but has typically outperformed when he’s gotten the chance to play in a dome.

He averaged 307 passing yards in two dome games last season and, with his backfield more limited than usual this week, could be taking to the air early and often in this spot. 

Injury Updates - Falcons vs. Chiefs SNF

Falcons 

• None

Chiefs

• RB Kareem Hunt (out)
• RB Isiah Pacheco (IR, leg)

Considering how banged up several of the top teams are through two weeks, it’s wild how healthy these teams are overall.

The big injury news of the week for the Chiefs centered around losing Isiah Pacheco, who is set to miss 6+ weeks (or more) with a fractured leg. The Chiefs did sign Kareem Hunt this week to help fill the void but he hasn’t been cleared for game duty just yet by the team. That means you should expect to see a whole lot of Carson Steele and more of Samaje Perine this week in the KC backfield. 

Perine is a savvy receiving back and had his moments carrying the Bengals backfield a couple of years ago but he’s also nearing 30 years of age and has only had a 21% route rate through two games. The Chiefs also let go of Deneric Prince because they believed in Steele and he had seven carries after Pacheco went down.

Long story short, expect to see Steele a ton in this game but don’t be shocked if Perine’s usage as a receiver doubles in this spot either. Atlanta has done quite well at limiting RBs on the ground thus far and should be happy to force Mahomes into a ton of dropbacks and throw more to a still somewhat questionable receiver core. 

Falcons vs. Chiefs: Spread and Total

• Chiefs -3.0 (-115; bet365)
• O/U: 46.5

The spread in this game has moved towards Atlanta all week after opening at +4.5. I took Atlanta at +3.5 but at 3.0 our NFL Betting model leans back towards the Chiefs, so it would be a pass for me at this level.

Of note is that the Chiefs have typically underperformed in this spot going 13-17-1 ATS as an away favorite since 2020. They did cover both games they played indoors last year, however, so it’s not a big enough trend for me to jump on now that this line has moved.

Our game model also suggests the under is a solid play with it projecting this matchup to go under 45.0 points at the moment. It’s also a primetime game and primetime unders have smashed over the last two seasons, going 152-101-4 over the last five years. I expect this might close under 46.0 as more sharp money drives the number down close to kickoff. With Atlanta’s ability to run the ball and how difficult it was for KC to generate big plays last week, the under does look enticing enough for a bet at the current number.

Best Bets for Falcons vs. Chiefs: Week 3 SNF 

Tyler Allgeier Over 6.5 carries (-105; BetMGM)

• FL+ Projection: 7.0 carries

Allegeier is averaging 6.16 yards per carry and saw his usage skyrocket in Week 2 against the Eagles, ending the game with 9 carries and a 33% carry share. Going back to last season, when it’s been Allgeier and Robinson in the backfield, Allgeier has now gone over this 6.5 total in 16 of his last 19 games and also gone over this total in eight of his last nine home games.

Allgeier is, quite simply, too good a runner to keep off the field at this point, and with Mahomes on the other side you have to expect that establishing the run game with Allgeier early on may be a gameplan Atlanta attempts to employ.

Unless the Falcons get down big early in this game I expect you’ll see Allgeier’s usage against the Chiefs be similar to what we saw against Philadelphia.

Samaje Perine over 2.5 receptions (-130; BetMGM)

• 4+ rec (+195) | 5+ rec (+400) | 6+ rec (+900; bet365)
• FL+ projection: 3.1 receptions

Perine’s usage (2 catches on 3 targets) hasn’t been great to start the season, but with Isiah Pacheco now injured, Andy Reid’s hands are tied.

The former Bengal/Bronco is also a terrific pass catcher who converted 50 of the 56 targets he saw last year in Denver and should (at the very least) handle most of the long-down-and-distance and two-minute work in this game.

With Atlanta also boosting a fairly strong D-Line, that’s allowed just 3.82 yards per carry to opposing RBs, the Chiefs may also just choose to come in with a Perine-heavy game plan to start with.

I like the over on his 2.5 receptions, but making a same-game parlay (over 2.5 rec + over 17.5 yards) or ladder betting Perine through 4/5/6 receptions has a lot of appeal in this spot as well.