Best Bets for Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 4: Will Boston seal the deal?

Game 3 was essentially a must-win for the Mavericks, and they treated it as such out of the gates. They jumped out to an early first-quarter lead, but the Celtics were able to erase most of it before the final buzzer. The same was true in the second quarter, and the Mavs took a slim one-point lead into halftime.

That’s when the Celtics’ buzzsaw hit. They dominated the third frame and took a 21-point lead in the fourth, and they were ultimately able to hold on down the stretch.

With the Celtics now up 3-0, they’ll have a chance to complete the sweep and wrap up one of the most successful postseason runs in NBA history. The 2016-17 Warriors have the best postseason record of all time at 16-1, and the Celtics would be 16-2 with a win on Friday.

Can they get the job done, or will we be heading back to Boston for Game 5? Let’s dive into my best bets for Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 4.

Best Bets for Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 4

Celtics ML at Mavericks (-110; BetMGM)

This has been a brutal Finals for the sharps. We’ve seen sharp action on the over in all three games, and all three haven’t approached the total. They’ve also been on the Mavericks in the past two contests, and depending on the number you got Dallas at in Game 2, they’ve failed to cover in both spots.

They’re going back to the well with Dallas in Game 4, but I struggle to see where the improvement is going to come from. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are going to struggle to play better than they did in Game 3. They combined for 62 points, and while Doncic did foul out with four minutes left in the game, he already looked pretty much out of gas at that point.

Luka’s conditioning remains a massive question mark for the Mavericks. We’ve seen him have elite first-half performances in this series only to sputter across the finish line. He was just 4-11 from the field in the second half of Game 3, and he’s now 12-31 in the second half across all three contests (38.7%).

It’s important to remember that Luka is still young and that this is his first real taste of Finals action. He has plenty of time to improve, but that’s not going to happen in between Games 3 and 4. He’s still going to complain to the refs, he’s still going to struggle on defense, and he’s still going to be guarded physically the full length of the court.

The scariest part is that we still haven’t seen a complete game out of the Celtics yet. They’ve shown flashes of their brilliance – the first half of Game 1, the third quarter of Game 3 – but they’ve yet to do it for a full 48 minutes. If they have a game where they’re knocking down 40% of their 3-pointers, it’s a wrap.

Finally, there’s the motivational angle for Dallas. They’re not just going to give up, but deep down, they know this series is over. Even if they do manage to win in Game 4, they’re likely just going to lose in Game 5 back in Boston. Why delay the inevitable?

This has always been Boston’s year to win. It doesn’t matter if they have Kristaps Porzingis or not – this is simply the best team in basketball. It’s time to crown the champs.

Player Props for Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 4

Luka Doncic Over 8.5 first-quarter points (-130)

As much as Luka has received heavy criticism of late, it’s hard to say that the Mavs’ performance in the Finals has been his fault. They were actually +9 with Doncic on the floor in Game 3, so he played well enough for his team to win.

Doncic has been particularly good at starting games in this series. He had 13 points in the first quarter of Game 3, and he also had 13 first-quarter points in Game 2. I see no reason why he’d be any less aggressive in a potential elimination contest.

Jayson Tatum Over 7.5 first-quarter points (+110)

Let’s double down on the first-quarter scoring props for Game 4. I’m expecting Porzingis to sit for the second straight game, which means Tatum should see a bump in offensive responsibilities. He’s increased his usage rate to 32.3% with Porzingis off the court, and it’s no coincidence that he had his best first-quarter performance sans Porzingis in Game 3. He finished with 13 points on 4-7 shooting, and he has the potential to duplicate that performance on Friday.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

Wednesday: 2-1 (+0.55 units)
Futures: 9-3 w/ one pending (+1.41 units)
Playoffs: 53-47-1 (+2.545 units excluding futures)