Best Bets for Oilers vs. Panthers Game 6: Can Edmonton Stay Alive?

After netting just four goals through the first three games, the Oilers have now scored 13 times in the last two games and have turned the series completely on its head by. Sergei Bobrovsky, once a big favorite to win the Conn Smyth, suddenly looks mortal and potentially a little old.

Edmonton has not only picked up the pace on special teams but has also seen Stuart Skinner elevate at just the right time, as he comes in having stopped 51 of the last 54 shots he’s faced. Skinner and the Oilers have been dominant in many areas over the last two games, but they’re still up against the best 5v5 team in hockey, and can’t afford a single mistake if they will pull off this massive comeback.

Thus far in the playoffs, Edmonton has been able to win three games in a row twice already (once against the Kings and once against Dallas) so the precedent for them being able to push this to a Game 7 is there.

Below we break down the best plays for this monumental Game 6 and which teams and players will potentially thrive in this high-pressure environment.

Best Bets for Oilers vs. Panthers Game 6

Oilers Moneyline (-118; DraftKings)

The pre-game action we’ve seen thus far for Game 6 has been very similar to what we saw before Game 4 and Game 5. Heavy money has been coming in on Florida to the point where the moneyline on Florida has been moved from +115 all the way down to -102 at DraftKings.

While I get why someone would bet Florida as bigger dogs in this spot, their number has been steamed way down at this point and no longer represents the value it once did. And to be honest, I like the Oilers.

Edmonton has been dominant at home in these playoffs. Their two best games came in Game 6 against Vancouver and Game 4 against Florida (both home elimination games) where they outscored their opponents at a combined 13-2 clip. Overall in these playoffs, they’ve posted a 7-3-1 record in Edmonton and are 3-0 in elimination games played at home.

They also have a player named Connor McDavid who is currently in the midst of a record-breaking playoff run.

McDavid now has eight points in his last two games alone and has been able to carry the team despite teammate Leon Draisaitl struggling. So what happens when Draisaitl eventually comes back to life and Florida has to deal with two superstars playing at their peak, instead of one?

Well, for one, it will likely involve the Oilers becoming a more balanced team at 5v5. Edmonton relied heavily on special teams in Game 5 — where only one of their goals came at even strength — and while bettors seem to be punishing them for that before Game 6, if Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins wake up, those even-strength numbers could flip wildly in Edmonton's favor on Friday.

Regardless of where the betting number is now, I have no issue playing the home team in this spot. Edmonton has proven they can elevate when they need to, and with Florida now potentially the weaker team in net, and certainly at a disadvantage on special teams, Edmonton seems like the right side to be on.

Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goal Scorer (+165; FanDuel)

2+ goals (+1100; bet365)

Draisaitl has now gone seven games without a goal and he’s only recorded two points thus far in this series. At this point, it’s hard to pinpoint exactly the reason for his slide in production and given the time of year injuries could be a factor. However, puck luck is still the biggest and most likely reason why we haven’t seen him find the net in such a long time.

The Oilers have switched his wingers at points in this series but he’s still averaged 5.6 shot attempts per game and was arguably their best player in Game 1, when the entire team got stonewalled by Sergei Bobrovsky. It looks like Edmonton will again use Ryan Nugent-Hopkins alongside Draisaitl in Game 5 and those two have produced some memorable nights in the past. The bottom line is that the Oilers' offense and special teams are rolling again and Sergei Bobrovsky’s has regressed badly over the last three games, posting a 1-2 record and a .838 SV%.

While the tendency is certainly to look to McDavid for goal props, it’s also important to remember that the Oilers have thrived this season with McDavid acting as the catalyst (and not the primary goal scorer) for his teammates.

Whether it’s on the power play or at 4v4, there is a good chance that when the Draisaitl does get paired up with the captain, he’ll be looking to help get his teammate out of his goal slump and propel Edmonton back to Florida for Game 7.

With that angle in mind, I like going the Draisaitl route tonight with the anytime goal prop and may even look to play him for a multi-goal game.

Vladimir Tarasenko Over 1.5 SOG (-165; bet365)

Anytime Goal Scorer (+450; bet365)

Let the Mets, Grimace, and the baseball fans have their puny 7-game winning streaks. We hockey bettors will keep gorging ourselves on this insane over run from Vladimir Tarasenko on his SOG prop.

The Russian is now averaging 4.8 shot attempts through the first five games of this series and has gone over this 1.5 SOG total in nine straight (take that Grimace). In Game 5, with the Oilers getting out to a big lead early on, Tarasenko was even more aggressive and managed a series-high 4.0 shots on net.

As I alluded to before Game 4 and Game 5, the Panthers are playing Tarasenko perfectly:

“(They) haven’t been wearing out the veteran who is averaging around 11-12 minutes per game in a third-line role. He’s not only fresh when he’s on the ice but also getting prime matchups against the Oilers' bottom six as a result, matchups that have allowed him to get more shots through than most Florida forwards in this series.”

At this point, it’s safe to conclude that Edmonton’s bottom-six don’t have an answer for Tarasenko who seems likely to get his chances again in this pivotal Game 6. With the odds on his over still sitting in almost the same place they were at before Game 5, and his goal-scoring prop back above +400, there is no reason NOT to get greedy and run this bet back for another day.

Same-Game Parlays for Oilers vs. Panthers Game 6

Game 6 SGP #1: Panthers in Overtime (+2000; bet365)

Vladimir Tarasenko Anytime Goal Scorer
Vladimir Tarasenko over 1.5 shots on goal
Tied after regulation (OT)
Panthers moneyline

Game 6 SGP #2: Oilers in Overtime (+4000; bet365)

Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goal Scorer
Leon Draisaitl over 2.5 shots on goal
Oilers moneyline
Tied after regulation (OT)

I considered betting the OT line (+310; DraftKings) in this game. The prospect of a closer, lower-scoring matchup certainly has some appeal given what is on the line for both teams. However, I also think we can extend that idea and get access to some great odds by combining the OT odds with our two goal scorer props from above and their respective team's moneylines.

Tarasenko has truly been one of Florida's most efficient players so even in limited time on ice in OT – where we don’t get many penalties – he’ll be a pivotal player for them and someone who could even get a boost in ice time or used on an occasional shift with Barkov.

As mentioned above, I also think the Oilers' path to winning this game likely involves a big game from Leon Draisaitl. You could certainly combine all five props (both SOG, both Goal Scorers, and OT) into a single five-way SGP (+6500; bet365). However, creating two separate SGPs and correlating the goal props and moneylines (Drasaitl; Oilers, Tarasenko; Panthers) is also appealing.

Best Bets for Oilers vs. Panthers Game 6: Can Edmonton Stay Alive?

Best Bets for Oilers vs. Panthers Game 6

Oilers Moneyline (-118; DraftKings)

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Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goal Scorer (+165; FanDuel)

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Vladimir Tarasenko Over 1.5 SOG (-165; bet365)

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Same-Game Parlays for Oilers vs. Panthers Game 6

Game 6 SGP #1: Panthers in Overtime (+2000; bet365)

Game 6 SGP #2: Oilers in Overtime (+4000; bet365)

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