Stanley Cup Finals Best Bets: Expert Picks For Panthers Vs. Oilers Game 7
Geoff Ulrich breaks down his best bets for Panthers vs. Oilers Game 7, including a position on the moneyline, a same-game parlay, and more.
10 days ago, on June 13th, the Florida Panthers beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-3 and took a commanding 3-0 series lead in the Stanley Cup Finals. Their odds to win the series after that game sat at -3000, while the Oilers were at +1300.
To quote Michael Scott: “Well, well, well… How the turntables…”
Down 3-0 the Oilers remained steady in their belief and in head coach Kris Knoblauch who stated that they were playing the Panthers evenly and that, eventually, the goals would start dropping. As outlandish as it sounded then, he was right.
Edmonton enters tonight having outscored Florida 18-5 over the last three games and on the verge of the “reverse sweep”. They’ve done it by dominating on special teams and employing a counter-attacking style at 5v5 that has given 35-year-old Sergei Bobrovsky fits. He enters this game with a 0.793 SV% over the last three games and was also reportedly not at practice on Sunday for Florida.
Bobrovsky is expected to play (there has been no word on an injury) but more drastic lineup moves from Florida are expected, some of which have an air of desperation about them.
Going against popular wisdom has paid off in this series but these are also uncharted waters we are in. Florida, once up 3-0 and a seeming lock for their first Stanley Cup, is now on the verge of an epic collapse while Edmonton is one game away from ending Canada’s 31-year Stanley Cup drought.
With that in mind, here’s why I think you keep playing the Oilers in Game 7…
Picks for Panthers vs. Oilers Game 7
Edmonton Oilers Moneyline (-105; bet365)
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The Oilers likely didn’t deserve to be down 3-0 to start the series, and now that they have come back from that deficit, it’s hard to figure how the Panthers gain back momentum. Florida has even out-chanced Edmonton 23-16 in High Danger Scoring Opportunities over the last three games but has been completely stymied by Stuart Skinner and the Oilers’ special teams, who have limited the Panthers to just one power-play goal (in 20 chances) in the series.
The Panthers are making some adjustments for Game 7 as they’ll move normally clutch winger Carter Verhaeghe from the top unit power play and replace him with Vladimir Tarasenko. Tarasenko has been solid in this series — while playing on the third line — but it remains to be seen how he’ll handle being thrust into a starring role at such a critical moment.
The line movement in this series has favored the Panthers; the moneyline odds on Florida have moved lower before puck drop in each of the last three games. However, we are starting to see some “sharp action” towards Edmonton before Game 7, with the Oilers taking in the majority of the bets and handle on DraftKings, as of writing.
Being the contrarian in this series has paid off to date but I see this more as a spot where the market is now content to ride the momentum with Edmonton and cut their losses on Florida. The fact is, the Oilers have been the better team for more of the series, and with the Panthers now in disarray and attempting some large-scale lineup changes, it’s not a time to go against the comeback kids. As long as the line stays at -110 or bigger, I see the Oilers as the correct side once again for Game 7.
SGP: First Period Under 1.5 Goals / Aaron Ekblad Under 0.5 points (+110; bet365)
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I understand the tendency to lean under in an elimination game but playing the under on a smaller total like 5.5 also means you may have to fade some late-game, empty-net goal scenarios like the ones we saw in Game 6 — which pushed the total over 5.5.
An alternative way to play for a lower-scoring game (or lower-scoring start, anyway) is to target the first period under, a bet that has hit in five of the first six games of this series. The under has been bet down to -150 for Game 7, but using it as part of a smaller, same-game parlay has some appeal.
Outside of a Game 2 goal, Aaron Ekblad has been kept off the scoresheet against the Oilers and there are now reports that the veteran defenseman missed practice on Sunday (with a potential injury). Ekblad is also not seeing any power play time and that seems unlikely to change now that he’s missed precious practice time ahead of Game 7.
Ekblad’s under on 0.5 points is short (-310; bet365) but it also correlates well with our first period under, and when we combine the two it bumps the -150 odds up to +110. We’re taking more risk, but given Ekblad’s performance to date, I like using his under — alongside the first-period under — for a solid +110 SGP for Game 7.
Vladimir Tarasenko over 2.5 SOG (+190; DraftKings)
We’ve been targeting Tarasenko on his normal SOG prop all series. The Russian has gone for two or more SOG in five of six games thus far and did have three shot attempts in Game 6, but only managed to get one on net.
Still, he’s been one of the busier and more effective Panther forwards in this series, and with three losses in a row and Game 7 looming the Panthers have decided to move Tarasenko up to the first power-play unit.
If this were a regular-season game I would probably look to grab a piece of Tarasenko’s goal prop as well, which is still huge at +360 on Fanduel. However, with how good the Oilers’ special teams and goaltending have been of late I’d rather play his alternate shots on goal prop at DraftKings, which includes OT and was as big as +190 as of writing.
Tarasenko has gone for three or more SOG in six of his last nine games (despite playing limited minutes), so the 34.48% implied probability we’re getting for Game 7 does suggest there is good value in this line. Additionally, with his ice time set to take a bigger jump, there is just far more room for upside from Tarasenko who has looked and played more like his younger self in these playoffs.
Connor Brown Anytime Goal Scorer (+1000; FanDuel)
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Connor Brown has had a fantastic series for Edmonton. He’s been one of their best penalty-killers and has two points in his last three games, including one short-handed goal from Game 5 that got the Oilers out of the gate the last time they were in Florida. Brown’s not a prolific shooter but he’s been skating better than he has all season and has talked at length about how he’s now fully recovered from an ACL tear from back in 2022.
Brown’s uprising has been a huge rallying point for Edmonton who almost must feel like they were able to add an extra player just given how much more he’s been contributing of late. I’m not suggesting this is a must-play by any means but if you are looking for an unsung hero in this game to back in the anytime goal market, the +1000 looks relatively fair given how his role has been increasing.
Same-Game Parlay for Panthers vs. Oilers Game 7
- Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goal Scorer
- Tarasenko over 1.5 SOG
- Oilers moneyline
As much as chasing the Draisaitl goal props has hurt in this series (he has zero through the first six games) there is no denying the price for the five-time 40+ goal scorer remains attractive. Draisaitl has averaged 5.33 shot attempts per game in the series and has posted expected goal rates (per 60 minutes) of 1.53 or better in three of the first six games.
While there is no harm in playing Draisaitl to score straight up again, I do like the idea of correlating it with the Oilers moneyline for a nice combo play that requires less investment. Draisaitl scoring in this game would give the Oilers a huge boost, and with how well their defense and special teams have been one or more two goals may be all they need to close out this series.
You could simply stop there but using the toned-down version of the Tarasenko SOG prop from above (over 1.5 SOG) does tie in nicely with the first two selections. The Panthers seem ready to give the Russian a bigger role and if we have them pegged for trailing at some point late in this game then we’ll likely see several of their players outperform their series average in the SOG department, which was much the case in their Games 4 and 5 losses.