Best Bets For Sunday Night Football Week 10: Texans vs Lions
Geoff Ulrich highlights the best way to bet the Week 10 SNF tilt between the Texans and Lions, including positions on the spread, total, and player props.
A star WR for the Texans could return tonight and Geoff Ulrich is here with his best bets for Sunday Night Football Week 10:
The Texans come into this spot off of a loss to the Jets last Thursday Night. In that game, C.J. Stroud was sacked eight times and had his worst game as a pro, completing just 11 of 30 passes for 191 yards and no TDs.
Stroud will likely be fine, and certainly can’t be blamed for his O-Line being unable to stop the Jets' pass rush, but it’s a poor trend that is forming with Houston on offense in general. They rank just 18th in EPA per dropback this season and Stroud is just 17th in yards per attempt at 7.2.
They may get some help for this game with WR Nico Collins (questionable) having resumed practicing again this week. Collins is a game decision but would be a much-needed addition, even if he only played limited snaps, against a much improved Lions secondary that is 5th in EPA per dropback.
There is not much to be said about the Lions at this point. The team has played at the highest level imaginable all season. QB Jared Goff enters this game with a ridiculous 74.5 completion percentage on the year and averaging 8.7 yards per attempt, the second-highest mark in the league.
After an early season loss to the Buccaneers, the Lions have reeled off six straight wins, with their last five wins all coming by 10 or more points.
There is no denying that this a tough spot for the Texans, who may get Collins back, but also have Tank Dell on the injury report this week and will be without Will Anderson on defense.
So can the Texans make a game of it, or will the Lions prevail in dominant fashion again?
Let’s break down the spread and total, before getting to player props below.
Sunday Night Football Betting Breakdown: Texans vs. Lions
- Spread: Lions -3.5 (-110; bet365)
- Total: O/U 49.5
Lions Injury Notes:
Out
- T Taylor Decker
- DL Brodric Martin
- LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin
- S Ifeatu Melifonwu
- CB Emmanuel Moseley
- LB Malcolm Rodriguez
Questionable
Texans Injury Notes
Out
Questionable
- DT Foley Fatukasi
- LB Jake Hansen
- DE Jerry Hughes
- CB Jeff Okudah
- WR Nico Collins
- WR Tank Dell
It should shock no one that most of the money for this game is on the Lions. With the heavy betting, this number has finally moved off the key number of -3.0/+3.0 to 3.5. We may see some 4.0/4.5s show up by the time kick-off rolls around too.
The Lions are 7-1 ATS this season and don’t just win games, they win them convincingly. You also have a Texans squad who, despite being 6-3, haven’t looked impressive at all this year. They’re coming off a poor loss to the Jets where they allowed their franchise QB to be manhandled the entire game and will be without their top player on defense.
Part of me wants to make a case for the Texans as a contrarian home dog (if this number gets to +4.0/+4.5) but I’m going to pass on the spread altogether instead. We have value showing on the Lions at -3.5, as our Game Model has this spread projected at -4.1. Detroit is the side I would lean to at the current number, but would rather take a bet on the total, which I’ll discuss below.
Our Model has the total for this game projected at 47.5, and I like betting the under at 49.5. Houston has been a dead under team all season (with or without Collins). They’re 7-2 to the under on the season and 4-0 to the under at home in 2024.
Detroit’s improvement on defense this year has also made them more of a total neutral team after they went 13-7 to the over in 2023-24. They’re just 4-4 on totals this season and facing a Texans defense that has allowed 21 points or less in five of their last six games.
I don’t think this will be an outright boring affair, but with both teams featuring capable secondaries, we could certainly see a tighter game develop, with a few extra defensive stops–and a suppressed final score.
I break down the best props and more for Texans vs Lions below.
Best Bets for SNF Week 10: Texans vs. Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD (-125; bet365)
- SGP: Gibbs anytime TD / Under 49.5 points (+325; bet365)
Coming into this game, Gibbs has managed TDs in six of eight games on the year. Going back to 2023-24, the second-year RB has at least one TD in 14 of his last 19 regular season games.
Despite that amazing conversion rate, Gibbs is still available at the following prices across the industry:
- -140 anytime TD - FanDuel
- -140 anytime TD - BetMGM
- -125 anytime TD - bet365
I bet Gibbs when this number opened at -110, and put it in our free NFL bet tracker for people to follow, but would still feel great about playing it at -125. Gibbs scoring in 14 of his last 19 games means he has a 73% hit rate on any-time TD bets, and at -125 we’re being offered generous implied odds of 56%.
Additionally, with the Texans losing Will Anderson for this game they are down one of their best run-stoppers, making at least one rushing TD seem even more likely for the Lions this week.
BONUS: Jahmyr Gibbs Same-Game Parlay
If you don’t have access to that -125 number or just wanted a bigger number (and don’t mind added variance) playing Gibbs’ anytime TD with a game Under (u49.0) also has appeal.
The negative correlation gets you SGP odds as big as +325 on bet365, which is 23% implied odds and big enough to offer some decent value given the edge we have projected on the under in our game model.
Kalif Raymond Over 10.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)
I’ve bet Raymond’s over each of the past two weeks with Jameson Williams out. The Lions only averaged 18 pass attempts in that two-game stretch, rendering Raymond to just a few targets over that span, and me going 0-2 on my bets.
Now that Williams is back, Raymond’s prop has cratered down to 10.5 which is just too low for me to ignore. He’s a very efficient target earner who often has plays drawn up for by OC Ben Johnson to get him involved. Even with Williams around in the first five games, He managed two games with 25+ yards.
The Lions are only small favorites this week and I do expect the Texans will be able to keep this game more competitive than the Packers or Titans managed in the Lions last two outings. We have Raymond projected for 18 receiving yards in Week 10, and with his yardage prop sitting at its lowest total of the season, I’ll ride with him for one week and try to scrape back some of my losses from Weeks 8 and 9.
