The Week 11 Sunday slate ends with an exciting matchup and Geoff Ulrich is here with his best bets for Sunday Night Football:

Chargers vs Bengals SNF Betting Preview: Can the Bengals find a win in LA?

• Spread: Chargers -1.5 (-110; bet365)
• Total: O/U 48.0

It’s been a tough season for Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Despite Burrow leading the league in TD passes and passing yards their record sits at 4-6. That includes going 1-3 in games where Burrow has thrown for 3TDs or more. 

The issue for Cincinnati hasn’t been moving the ball or even scoring, it’s just simply been a few missteps or bad breaks near the end of games. They took a pass interference on 4th and 16 against the Chiefs (a borderline call at best), blew multiple chances to beat the Ravens in Week 5 (including a missed 53-yard FG in OT), and blew a 14-point lead to the Ravens in Week 10.

Despite the lack of finish, their season is far from over. They’re in 9th place in the AFC playoff race) just a game behind the Broncos, and can make up a lot of ground on 6th place Los Angeles this week with a win.

The Chargers are sitting in a plum spot right now at 6-3, but their season is about to turn rocky. Over the next four weeks, they take on the Bengals, Falcons, Ravens, and Chiefs, all above-average to upper-echelon teams—and much tougher opponents than the Chargers have faced all season.

While the Chargers enter this week with a 6-3 record, they have yet to beat a team with a winning record. And when they have gone against quality teams they have been exposed, posting losses against Pittsburgh (Week 3), Arizona (Week 7), and the Chiefs (Week 4).

The good news for the Chargers is that while they do have some question marks, they’re also getting elite QB play from Justin Herbert, who has been excellent since their early season bye. 

So is the value with the road Bengals or are the Chargers a wolf in sheep’s clothing? We’ll go over that and more below, along with the best bets for this week’s SNF game.

Sunday Night Football Week 11 Injury News

Bengals

Out

• LB Joe Bachie
• WR Charlie Jones

Questionable

• OT Orlando Brown
• DE Trey Hendrickson
• DT B.J. Hill

Chargers:

Questionable

• LB Deane Leonard
• DL Khalil Mack

There are a few interesting injury tidbits going on with this game. The Bengals have stated that B.J. Hill and Tee Higgins will likely play. Trey Hendrickson had a personal issue and didn't travel with the team this week but is traveling on his own and expected to play as well. That only leaves Orlando Brown as the sole game-time decision for the Bengals–although the news leading up to kickoff is worth watching.

Khalil Mack is also questionable for the Chargers and only played on four snaps last week with the same leg injury. The Chargers have a deep Defensive Line so even if Mack doesn’t go they’ll still have numerous ways to get pressure on Burrow.

The spread in this game moved from +2.5 to +1.5-+1.0 where it’s stayed for most of the week. Both of these teams are playoff-worthy for me, but the Bengals' upside with Higgins back and potentially having an O-Line upgrade with Brown in the lineup is too great to ignore. We’re talking about a team that has already taken the Chiefs and the Ravens twice the wire and could be entering this game at 7-3 and in the hunt for the division win and number one seed in the AFC.

As much as I respect Justin Herbert’s recent play, the Chargers’ lack of wins over quality opponents concerns me. They’re regressed as a rushing offense (26th in success rate per rush) and have zero quality wins under their belt.

I placed a Moneyline bet on the Bengals in our NFL Bet Tracker at the start of the week and with our Game Model still showing some value on Cincinnati at the current lines, would still lean that way as of writing.

As for the total, I mentioned this as a good over to take at the opening number of 46.5 in our Betting Life Newsletter on Tuesday. The Bengals have averaged 28.4 points in Burrow’s five regular-season dome starts. However, now that it’s moved up to 48.0 at most spots, it would likely just be a pass unless we see a dip before kickoff.

I break down the best props and more for the Bengals at Chargers below.

Best Bets For SNF Week 11 - Chargers vs Bengals

J.K. Dobbins Under 13.5 yards longest rush (-105; bet365)

Dobbins got off to a hot start this season but has seen his efficiency dwindle. He’s gone under 3.5 yards per carry in three of his last four games and has been kept under 60 yards total in five of his last seven. He’s also now facing more competition for carries with Gus Edwards back in the lineup, who looked much fresher last week, posting 55 yards on just 10 carries.

I don’t mind the idea of just fading Dobbins’ rushing total of 57.5 (-115; FanDuel) in this spot, but his longest rush total also looks too high. Dobbins has had two major knee surgeries thus far in his career so his explosiveness isn’t what it was when he came into the league. After posting runs of 63 yards and 41 yards in his first two games, he’s now failed to post a rush longer than 13 yards in five of his last seven games.

The Bengals have also really stiffened up as a run defense of late. Last week they held the league’s best rushing offense to a longest rush of just 11 yards and have only allowed one run of 13-plus yards over their last three games—which was to potential OPOY Saquon Barkley, who ripped off a 19-yarder against them. 

I placed this Under in our Free NFL Bet Tracker yesterday and it was available at the following prices in our NFL Prop Finder as of writing:

• -120 Under 13.5 - DraftKings
• -125 Under 13.5 - BetMGM

Mike Gesicki Over 27.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)

This one didn’t exactly pop off for me at first look, but after checking our projections and some of Gesicki’s past prop lines, the over here does look like a solid bit of value. 

Despite seeing some reduced usage when Tee Higgins has been in the lineup, it’s worth noting that Gesicki has still managed to go over 27.5 yards twice in the five games that he and Higgins have played together this season. Further, while I do expect Higgins to demand his usual target share, it’s not out of line to also think that the Bengals may not throw him back into a near-everydown role in his first game back. If they are going to make the playoffs, they need Higgins for every game from here on out, so a rotation in usage between Higgins and the similarly skilled Gesicki—who is essentially a big WR disguised as a TE—makes some sense.

As mentioned above, there is value showing to the over as we still have Gesicki projected for 35.0 yards and around 4.5 targets. That also suggests that we likely shouldn’t expect a full shift back to Higgins being the primary non-Chase target in the first week of his return, and for Gesicki to maintain a decent enough target share to exceed this smaller yardage total on Sunday. 

Underdog Pick'em Plays for SNF Week 11

• Ladd McConkey: HIGHER than 6.0 targets
• Mike Gesicki: HIGHER than 2.5 receptions
• J.K. Dobbins: LOWER than 13.5 longest rush
• Payout: 5.46x

I already summarized the J.K. Dobbins longest rush prop above, but our projections have solid edges showing on both of Gesicki’s receptions and yardage highers (mentioned above) and on the current 6.0 target total for Ladd McConkey.

McConkey is projecting for 6.6 targets on Fantasy Life this week, so even at 6.5, this total would lean slightly to the Higher side. At 6.0, we have a full 0.6 target edge and will still grab a push on this selection if he stalls at 6.0 targets–which would keep the rest of the card live for a cash. 

From a correlation standpoint, the Dobbins and McConkey plays also work well together as any slow game by Dobbins—where he’s not breaking big runs—means more usage for McConkey who gets used on short and downfield routes.