Best Bets For Sunday Night Football Week 18: Lions vs Vikings
Geoff Ulrich highlights the best way to bet the Week 18 SNF tilt between the Vikings and Lions, including positions on the spread, total, and player props.
Two NFC North juggernauts face off tonight, and Geoff Ulrich is here with his best bets for Sunday Night Football Week 18:
The Lions and Vikings meet this Sunday Night in the regular season finale. As of now, both teams sit with 14-2 records, and the winner of this game will win both the NFC North AND get the number one seed in the NFC (and a first-round bye).
Week 18 SNF Betting Breakdown: Lions vs Vikings
- Spread: Lions -3.0 (-105; bet365)
- Total: O/U 56.0
There's a ton of stake for both teams, but perhaps more for the Lions. They've been beset by injuries down the stretch. They lost Aidan Hutchinson early in the season and have also lost two starting corners for this game Carlton Davis and Emmanuel Moseley. They also endured massive losses at LB with Alex Anzalone and Malcolm Rodriguez getting hit with long-term injuries. Anzalone (arm) could return for this game, but the Lions would love the week off to recoup and get more help back for the playoff run.
The Vikings come into this game playing with house money. They had a 6.5 win total to start the season and were most people’s pick to finish last in the division. QB Sam Darnold has outperformed everyone’s expectations throwing for 35 TDs vs 12 INTs to date, and ranks 7th in EPA per play among all QBs.
Defensively, this will be a tough test for their secondary, but they have been up for the task lately and have a far deeper roster on that side of the ball than the Lions. Minnesota currently ranks in the top three in both EPA against rush and pass, and it just finished holding Jordan Love to under 200 yards passing last week.
If the Vikings can get some stops they should be able to move the ball enough to be the last team standing, but that’s easier said than done against Detroit. The Lions have scored 34-plus points in four straight games and two of those performances against top-10 teams in Green Bay and Buffalo.
Any slip by Darnold or the Vikings' offense and it will be lights out for Minnesota in terms of their division title hopes.
So, which NFC team will come out on top, and where do we look for spread and total bets? We’ll go over that and more below, along with the best prop bets and parlays for this week’s SNF game.
Lions vs Vikings Injury Report
Lions:
- David Montgomery OUT
- Emmanuel Moseley OUT
- Alex Anzalone QUESTIONABLE
- Kalif Raymond QUESTIONABLE
- Craig Reynolds QUESTIONABLE
Vikings:
- Pat Jones OUT
- Kamu Grugier-Hill QUESTIONABLE
- Fabian Moreau QUESTIONABLE
Best Bet For Lions vs Vikings: Sunday Night Football Week 18
The total has risen to a whopping 56.0 points. Lions games have been absolute track meets of late, with three of the last four Lions games producing 60-plus points. However, the steam chasers have likely put this total out of reach for me. Our Game Model has this total projected at 55.4 and with Minnesota’s defense playing well I’m not necessarily confident enough to play the over at these levels. The total will be a pass for me, although if I were picking a side, I’d probably make a small play to the under.
From a spread perspective, I still think the Lions aren’t quite getting enough credit. They’ve dealt with some massive blows down the stretch on defense but have only lost one of their last 14 games and forced the Bills to score 48 points—and Josh Allen to account for five TDs—to do so.
The Minnesota offense is solid, but if Detroit gets its way and turns this into a back-and-forth affair, the Lions will have the advantage. Jared Goff is still the more proven QB (with loads more experience in these bigger games) and comes into this game ranked 3rd in EPA per play on the season. If not for one crazy 5-INT game (which the Lions still won), Goff may still be in the running for MVP.
The Vikings also aren’t as efficient offensively as a whole, with Detroit ranking first in success rate via the pass and 3rd via the run and the Vikings ranking just 18th in success rate via the rush.
I think Detroit’s being underrated in this spot and with some juiced 2.5s still on the board, I'd be happy to them down to -120 (-2.5) in this spot, or even take a 3.0 (+100) if needed.
Looking to dive deep into every Week 18 game's betting lines? Use the NFL Game Model to compare Fantasy Life projections to lines across sportsbooks, highlighting the biggest edges on the sides, moneylines, and totals.
Best Player Prop Bets For Lions vs Vikings - SNF Week 18
Aaron Jones Under 14.5 Rushing attempts (-120; bet365)
- Projection: 14.2
Jones has been under this total in two of his last four games and while I expect the Vikings to rely on their lead back in this pivotal spot, it’s not the greatest matchup for Jones to hit the over on these volume props.
Only one RB has had more than 14 attempts vs the Lions over the last seven games and that was Josh Jacobs who plays on the run-heavy Packers scheme. They also held the lead briefly in the later stages of that game.
The Vikings aren’t near as effective a run offense as Green Bay and face off against Lions D-Line which ranks 4th in success rate vs the run, and could get some help back this week in Alex Anzalone.
With Cam Akers now involved and playing well, I see Jones potentially more involved as a pass catcher in this spot. I’d play this under down to -130 if needed.
Jameson Williams Over 58.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)
- 80+ rec yards (+220; bet365)
- 100+ rec yards (+450; bet365)
- 100+ rec yards + anytime TD (+650; bet365)
The Lions passing game is a machine at this point. They’re first in most efficiency stats entering this game, including EPA per dropback.
This week, they take on a Vikings secondary that still struggles vs elite WRs, having allowed the second most receiving yards to the position this year. Williams has also become a bigger focal point of this offense after losing David Montgomery and he’s now posted target shares of 20% or greater in five of his last six games—and gone for 60-plus yards in five of his last seven games.
Overall, this is a fantastic spot for Ben Johnson to dial up long plays to Williams downfield who benefits from teams having to shift coverage to account for both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta underneath.
We have Williams projected in the low 60s this week, but he’s a player I’d also be looking to ladder bet through multiple alternate lines.
Minnesota may have neutralized him in the first game but with Detroit’s shift to a more passing-based offense, I’d not hesitate to bet on Williams being a far more important player this time around.
More Player Prop Edges For Week 18
Lions vs Vikings Same Game Parlay
- Jared Goff: 300+ passing yards
- Jameson Williams: 100+ rec yards
- Jameson Williams: anytime TD
- Odds: +1000; bet365
You can build even more team- and game-correlated parlays with our NFL Parlay Builder, integrated with Fantasy Life projections and logic that adjusts the edges based on selections you make.
Lions vs Vikings Week 18 Picks For Underdog Pick'em
- Jameson Williams: Higher than 69.5 receiving yards
- Jared Goff: Higher than 1.5 passing TDs
- Aaron Jones: Lower than 14.5 carries
- 3-Way Pick'em Entry: 4.8x multiplier
Similar to the parlay builder mentioned previously, you can compare Fantasy Life projections to Underdog Pick'em lines to craft the Pick'em entries with the biggest edges for Week 18 below:
