Best Bets for Team USA vs. South Sudan: Expect a different result in the rematch

It was a good start to the Olympics for both Team USA and us. The Americans rolled to a 26-point victory over Serbia – their biggest competition in Group C – while we went 2-1 on our picks. The only misstep was with Bam Adebayo, who hit just two of six shots to go under on his scoring prop.

South Sudan was a far bigger surprise. They were the lowest-ranked team by FIBA entering the tournament, so expectations were extremely low. They didn’t even play the right national anthem for the team before their first game. However, they managed to upset Puerto Rico to join the USA at 1-0 atop the Group C standings.

South Sudan also gave the USA everything they could handle in the Olympic tune-ups. They lost by just one point despite taking the floor as nearly 50-point underdogs. The oddsmakers are giving South Sudan a bit more respect this time around, with the US favored by “merely” 29.

Can they scare the Americans once again, or will the US roll to their second straight victory? Let’s dive into my best bets for Team USA vs. South Sudan.

Top Pick for Team USA vs. South Sudan

South Sudan Under 80.5 points (-115; DraftKings)

It’s tempting to lay the points with the Americans here. After all, there’s a reason this team was favored by nearly 50 the first time they met. The USA has easily the best roster in the field – they didn’t even play Jayson Tatum vs. Serbia, who has been All-NBA First Team in each of the past three seasons – while South Sudan has arguably the worst.

Even the most die-hard NBA fans are going to struggle to find names they recognize. JT Thor is the only current NBA player, while Wenyen Gabriel hung around for a few years before signing with Maccabi Tel Aviv last year. Khaman Maluach is their most impressive prospect, with the 7’2” center playing for Duke next season before becoming a likely lottery pick.

While Maluach might be a household name in a few years, this team is still going to struggle to hang with the Americans. As long as they bring their A-game – or potentially even their B-game – this one shouldn’t be close.

Still, I’m not particularly interested in laying nearly 30 points. Instead, let’s look at the under for South Sudan. This team scored more than 100 points in their exhibition game vs. the USA, but they shot 47.5% from the field and 42.4% from 3-point range. I don’t think that’s going to happen again. The US squad has elite defenders all over their roster, and they just limited a far more talented Serbia squad to 84 points.

After getting a scare during the exhibitions, I’m expecting them to take South Sudan much more seriously.

MORE BETS FOR USA VS. SOUTH SUDAN

Bam Adebayo Under 6.5 points (-130; DraftKings)

I really wanted to bet the over on Jayson Tatum’s scoring prop, but no sportsbooks have that listed at the moment. Head coach Steve Kerr took a lot of heat for not playing Tatum in Game 1, so I’m expecting that to change in a big way on Wednesday. They won’t have to combat Nikola Jokic in this contest, so there are more opportunities for him to play a bit smaller.

Playing the under on Adebayo works similarly to the over on Tatum. The premise is that Tatum’s minutes will come at the expense of the true centers like Adebayo. Even if Adebayo does see the same volume of playing time, there’s no guarantee he hits the over on 6.5 points.

This under is listed at -145 on BetMGM, but you can still get a -130 on DraftKings. That’s a pretty solid discrepancy that I’m happy to take advantage of.

Wenyen Gabriel Under 8.5 points (-105; DraftKings)

I don’t mind playing the under on a few different guys for South Sudan since that correlates well with them scoring under 80.5 as a team. However, Gabriel is my favorite target of the bunch.

He was a relatively low-usage player in their first contest vs. Puerto Rico, finishing with just seven shot attempts. He only had six shot attempts in the tune-up game vs. the USA, so he’s going to need to be efficient to hit the over on such limited volume. Gabriel has never been the picture of efficiency during his NBA tenure, so I’m willing to take my chances going against him.