It’s finally here. The Masters is one of the best sporting events of the year (period) and easily the best week of the season for golf fans. For bettors, it also represents a unique opportunity as this major is hosted by the same venue in Augusta National every season, which means we have a ton of past data to go off, and data means that some very clear and specific trends often start to appear for betting.

I went over the course and those trends on Monday in our early week Masters course and betting preview so for today I’m honing down specifically on Masters bets.

Since we have more markets to choose from this week I’m also not limiting myself to just outright or placement bets either. Before we get to the good stuff a few notes about the event to keep in mind below.

• It’s an 89-man field with the cut line taking place after Friday (top 50 players and ties make the weekend – there is no longer a 10-shot rule at the Masters)
• Scottie Scheffler leads the field in betting odds +450 (DraftKings) but the last time a betting favorite won at Augusta was back in 2005 (Tiger Woods)
• There are no huge injury issues to concern ourselves with but it has been reported that Cameron Smith is dealing with an illness (all indications are that he’ll play). Patrick Cantlay (undisclosed) also withdrew from his last event (Valspar) and hasn’t made a start on the PGA since THE PLAYERS. 
• The weather on the first day could be an issue as rain and heavier winds are expected in the A.M. That could push starting times back or even see the first round pushed into Friday.

The Masters Betting Odds

2024 Masters Top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings):

Best Bets for the 2024 Masters

Hideki Matsuyama Outright (+2000; FanDuel)

Hideki Matsuyama has seen some big movement in his betting odds (he was still available at +2500 on Monday but is no bigger than +2000 as of writing), and that’s not necessarily a bad thing if you're interested in betting on him. Several recent Masters winners have seen their betting odds shrink leading into the start of the event and at +2000 Matsuyama is also now in a range where six of the past 10 Masters winners have closed at (+2000 or shorter).

Part of the reason for this movement is the fact that it’s hard to make an argument against Matsuyama. He’s a past champion who won this event very recently back in 2021 (after they lengthened certain areas of the course) and has finished no worse than T16 in each of the past four Masters. He’s also playing some of the best tee-to-green golf of his life at the moment. He’s been an absolute machine around the greens all season, gaining over 3.0 strokes ATG in four of his final five starts, and hasn’t finished worse than T12 in his final four, pre-Augusta starts (a run that includes a win at Riviera).

I also think we have a great recent comp for Matsuyama winning this year, which is Bubba Watson in 2014. Watson won his first green jacket in 2012, suffered through the pangs of the defending champions' duties in 2013, and then put together a strong lead-in (similar to Matsuyama’s) in 2014 that led to his second green jacket. I think there is a great chance Matsuyama “suffers” the same fast as Watson and think he’s still very much worth playing even at this shortened price.

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Tony Finau Outright (+4000; FanDuel) 

• Top 10: +330

Four players have won at Augusta over the past decade who had closing odds of +3000 or bigger (Garcia ‘17, Reed ‘18, Willett ‘15 and Matsuyama ‘21). There are certainly lots of intriguing names in this range this week (Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Smith) but for me, the player to wager on has to be Tony Finau.

Finau quite simply checks all the boxes. The 34-year-old has had a great lead-in landing multiple top-10 finishes, and was a strong T2 in his final start in Houston. His statistical output from this season matches that of what several recent winners achieved on their lead-in to Augusta and he has the requisite tournament and course experience we crave at this event (T10 in 2018, T5 in 2019, T10 in 2021), which includes a Sunday final group pairing from back in 2019.

Despite the vastly superior lead-in from Finau this year he’s still available to be bet at +4000, a much better price than what he went off at last year, when he closed at +2500 or lower at some sportsbooks.  That’s the kind of market divergence I like taking advantage of personally and with his outright number bigger than expected it also makes laddering him in the top 5 and top 10 markets appealing.

2024 Masters Placement Bets

Joaquin Niemann Top 10 (+260; bet365)

I like Joaquin Niemann this week and logged an each-way bet on him at +2500 (win and 1/5 top 8). His lead-up has been phenomenal, as the Chilean has grabbed two wins on the LIV Tour over the last three months to go with an international win over in Australia he gained back in December.

Niemann does have a bit of an experience disadvantage as he’s never finished inside the top 10 at Augusta National, or any major for that matter, but I think that all changes this week. He’s had success at this course, shooting sub 70 in two of his last eight competitive rounds at Augusta, and has plenty to prove having been subject to an OWGR snub before gaining a special invite to compete this year.

He certainly has the talent to win this week but if you don’t have access to each-way bets then backing him for a high place is a good option and could certainly be paired with an outright wager if you fancy him there as well.

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Si Woo Kim Top 20 (+175; BetMGM)

Si Woo Kim is another player I bet in the outright market as an each-way (with top eight) but who perhaps makes more sense as a straight placement bet. This will shockingly be his eighth start at Augusta National and while his best finish to date is just a T12 (2021) Kim’s lead-in this year is the strongest we’ve seen from the South Korean.

Simply put, Kim is playing phenomenal golf. He’s top 20 in strokes gained around-the-green, approach, and off-the-tee stats over the last 24 rounds and has gained over 2.0 strokes ATG in each of his last two starts. Even if Kim’s putter runs cold early (which it often does) he’s playing so well that he should still give us a great run at a top 20 on Sunday with one big final round.

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Masters Specialty Bets

Adam Schenk top debutant (+2200 EW-4; bet365)

We have a very strong crop of Masters rookies with Swede Ludvig Aberg leading the charge. Aberg could very well be the betting favorite here next season (he’s that good) but his around-the-green game has been an issue at times this year and that could lead to serious problems around Augusta’s tight green structures.

Adam Schenk actually beat Aberg straight-up last week at the Valero (T5 to T14) and has showcased a solid around-the-green game of late, having gained over 2.0 strokes ATG at the Valspar and PLAYERS. His off-the-tee game has also been very solid and with his ball-striking as a whole taking a tick up in his last start he looks live to push the more talented players in this category.

You can bet Schenk as an each-way with a top 4 bet included (which I love doing) on bet365 but at +2200 (DraftKings) he’s plenty big enough to play as an outright in this market as well.

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Thorbjorn Olesen top 40 (+100; DraftKings) and top Scandinavian (+600; bet365)

Another player who caught my eye last week at the Valero was Thorbjorn Olesen, who finished T6 at Augusta back in 2013 (his debut).

Olesen last played Augusta back in 2019 (T21) and this season will mark his fourth appearance at the event. Like Niemann, the Dane gained entry via special exemption for his exemplary play on the DP World Tour, where he’s won twice over the last year. He stopped a string of three missed cuts at the Valero in a big way, finishing T14 while gaining 5.5 strokes around the greens (and 3.7 strokes on approach), and is the kind of player who can ride momentum like that into bigger finishes down the road.

His top 40 price looks very fair (+100 on DraftKings) and if you want more exposure to him this week he’s also +650 on bet365 to be the top Scandinavian. Considering the favorites in that category are the out-of-form Viktor Hovland and the inexperienced Aberg this price on Olesen seems a little high given his form and overall talent level.

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Tiger Woods to Make the Cut (+100; DraftKings)

I don't know about you, but I don’t mind taking +100 on the greatest player ever to hit a golf ball to make the cut at an event where he’s made the cut 23 times in a row. The circumstances are different with Woods now than they were back in 2019 but the big cat has made it clear that he isn't here to be a ceremonial starter.

Woods can also break the record for consecutive cuts made at Augusta this week just by finishing in the top 50 after round two and I for one, will not be rooting or betting against him. 

Masters 72-hole Matchup Bets

Tony Finau over Wyndham Clark (-120; DraftKings)

As I mentioned above, I think we’ve seen a phenomenal lead-in this year from Finau, who looks to be peaking at just the right time. Certainly, Clark has played great golf in 2024 but his around-the-green game hasn’t been as sharp as it was early in the season and he lacks the experience of Finau with this year marking his first-ever Augusta start.

Cameron Young over Cameron Smith (-118; Fanduel)

It’s been a tough go for Cameron Smith who had to withdraw from his last LIV start in Miami due to illness. It looks as though the Australian will play but certainly, his preparation has been hampered and he’ll be going out at less than 100% and likely playing in poor weather. On the flip side, we have Cameron Young, who was T7 at this venue last season and finished 2nd in his last start. It’s a good time to just take the news and stats we’ve been given at face value and fade the Aussie.