Best Bets for the Olympic Men's Basketball Gold Medal Game: USA vs. France

Well, that didn’t exactly go as planned. The USA spent the majority of the game trailing Serbia in the semifinals, and they might’ve even gotten blown out if not for some early heroics from Steph Curry. But they ultimately stuck around just enough to get the job done late; they knocked down 10 straight field goal attempts in the fourth quarter to erase the deficit and qualify for the gold medal matchup.

The team got some big buckets from Curry, Joel Embiid, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant down the stretch, who have established themselves as the “core four” for Team USA. They all played at least 24 minutes – with Curry and James logging at least 32 – while most of the other members of Team USA had their minutes slashed. While there will be a changing of the guard moment for USA basketball in the near future, for the time being, this team still belongs to the historic veterans.

Now, all that stands between Team USA and their fifth straight gold medal is a date vs. France. France struggled through the group stages but has turned things on in the knockout round, winning as underdogs against good Canada and Germany squads. They’ll have the homecourt advantage vs. the United States, but this will be their biggest test of the tournament by a long shot.

Can they pull off another upset and win gold on home soil, or will Team USA reign supreme once again? Let’s dive in.

TOP PICK FOR TEAM USA VS. FRANCE

Over 176.0 points (-112; DraftKings)

The intensity should be extremely high in a gold medal contest, but this total still feels too low for a Team USA game. All this team does is put the ball in the basket. They’ve cracked 100 points in four of their five Olympic contests, with a 95-point showing vs. Serbia in the last round the lone outlier. The US had a cold first half in that matchup, finishing with just 43 points before scoring their usual complement after halftime. Overall, all five of Team USA’s games have eclipsed 176 by at least 10 points.

It’s not just that the USA has so many great scorers; they can beat you in a multitude of ways. That was on full display in their comeback win vs. Serbia. Curry can beat you from deep. Embiid can demolish the interior. LeBron can get to the cup at will, while Durant remains one of the best midrange scorers in history. It’s impossible to stop all of that at once, and that’s before even factoring in guys like Devin Booker, Anthony Edwards, and Anthony Davis.

France has an outstanding defense anchored by Victor Wembanyama, but no one can stop Team USA’s offense. The bigger question is whether or not France’s offense can keep up.

I’m ultimately not sure if they can score enough to cover the 16-point spread, but they should be able to at least push this game over. They only scored 73 points vs. Germany, but that was with Wembanyama shooting a dreadful 4-17 from the field. Evan Fournier and Nicolas Batum were also a combined 2-11 from 3-point range, so they have plenty of room for improvement in the gold medal match.

France scored 82 points in their quarterfinal matchup vs. Canada, and I think that’s a reasonable expectation for their matchup vs. the US. If they can crack 80 points, I like the USA to push this over 176 pretty comfortably.

MORE BETS FOR TEAM USA VS. FRANCE

Anthony Edwards Under 10.5 points (-115; DraftKings)

Edwards may very well be the future face of Team USA, and he’s been a big part of the rotation in his first go around. He led the team in scoring during the group stage while splitting the shooting guard responsibilities with Booker.

However, with the stakes raised, it’s clear that Steve Kerr is riding with his veterans. Edwards played just 13.3 minutes vs. Serbia, and he attempted just three shots. He may see a bit more work vs. France – particularly if the game isn’t as competitive – but Booker’s perimeter shooting fits better alongside the team’s core pieces. Under 10.5 points looks like a solid value.

Guerschon Yabusele Over 12.5 points (-115; Caesars)

If the over is going to hit, someone for France is going to have to score the ball. Yabusele is a perfect fit to pair with that wager. He’s averaged just 12.8 points per game for the Olympics, but his role has increased significantly during the knockout rounds. He played 18 minutes or fewer in the three group-stage games, but he’s logged at least 26 vs. Canada and Germany. He’s responded with at least 17 points in both contests, averaging 10.0 shot attempts per game. This number feels a point or two too low.