Week 6 kicks off with a divisional clash between the Seahawks and Niners and Geoff Ulrich is here with his best bets for Thursday Night Football:

Thursday Night Football - Seahawks vs. 49ers

The 49ers come into this Week 6 game reeling a little. After a dominant win against the Patriots, they again failed to close out a game they should have won against a division opponent in Week 5, losing 23-21 against the Cardinals in a game where they blew multiple red zone opportunities. 

Brock Purdy started last week well but ended the game with just a 54% completion rate and 2 INTs to his one passing TD. It’s hard to say if the 49ers are enduring a little bad luck this year or not, but Purdy has had the Seahawks' number in the past (4-0, 9 TDs, 2 INTs) so if he can’t right things this week there may be slightly more cause for concern.

Seattle comes into this game on a two-game losing streak, but they're still leading the division at 3-2. It’s a tough spot for them from a rest perspective, as this Thursday Night game will mark their third game in 11 days after they played on Monday Night Football in Week 4.

Injury Report for Seahawks vs. 49ers

Seahawks

• DT Byron Murphy II (out)
• CB Riq Woolen (out)
• S Julian Love (questionable)
• LG Derick Hall (questionable)
• Edge Boye Mafe (questionable)

49ers 

• DT Jordan Elliott (out)
• LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (out)
• S Talanoa Hufanga (out)
• K Jake Moody (out)
• WR Chris Conley (questionable)
• CB Charvarius Ward (questionable)

I’ll be honest, the more I look at the injury reports this week, the more convinced I am that we could see a big game from DK Metcalf and/or Kenneth Walker. The 49ers keep losing bodies on their D-Line and allowed Kyler Murray and James Conner to combine for 169 rush yards against them last week.

49ers starting CB Charvarius Ward is also banged up and hasn’t been great this far in 2024 (25 targets, 15 catches, TD). He’ll be asked to guard the massive Metcalf who is coming off a poor game where he fumbled (again), and should be locked in for a rebound effort.

Seattle has some injury issues on defense, as Riq Woolen has already been ruled out for this game, but they will get pass rusher Boye Mafe back–-which could be a huge help to slowing down Purdy. Both of these teams surprisingly struggled last week, but neither are squads I would expect to stay stagnant for long.

So, which team has the best shot at coming out of Week 6 with a leg ahead in a tight divisional race?

We’ll cover that and more below, as we target the best sides and props in this Week 5 matchup.

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Thursday Night Football Spread and Total - Best Bets

• Spread: 49ers -3.5 (-110; DraftKings)
• Total: O/U 49.5

I liked the 49ers at -3.0 when this game opened, but with the line up to -3.5 (-110), I’m staying away.

San Francisco should be able to move the ball, but the Seahawks are getting a couple of players back on their D-Line which could make it tough on Purdy in the red zone once again.

Our Game Model on Fantasy Life has this line at -4.0 (aka a slight edge to SF), but with Purdy and the San Francisco offense struggling a bit, I’d rather spend more time dissecting props than picking a side or total.

Best Bets for Seahawks vs. 49ers Thursday Night Football

Jauan Jennings Over 2.5 receptions (+105; BetMGM)

Jennings had a bit of a rough outing last week against Arizona, as he only came up with one grab, despite seeing 4 targets. Jennings' usage has come down with Deebo Samuel back, which is no surprise, but he’s still maintaining a decent target share and was a go-to for Purdy once they were down in the red zone last week.

Jennings’ props have come down after his hot game against the Rams to the point where he’s now available around +105 at some books to go over 2.5 receptions. We have him projected for 4.1 targets and 3.0 receptions this week, and with one of Seattle’s top corners out, and one of their safeties questionable, it’s shaping up as a great rebound spot.

I’d have played this down to -110 as is, so as long it stays at +100 or better, the over here looks like a nice edge to take for this Thursday.

Ensure you get the best value for all of your player props by comparing odds and lines across all sportsbooks with our NFL Player Prop Finder!

Zach Charbonnet Over 29.5 rush/receiving yards (-120; Caesars)

Charbonnet has turned into a very efficient receiver for the Seahawks and while he’s obviously ceding a lot of work to Kenneth Walker, he’s maintained a very solid 40% snap rate over the last two games and seen 10 targets over that span.

This week represents a good matchup for him and Walker as the 49ers Linebackers/Defensive Line is somewhat decimated at this point and it’s started to hamper their ability to shut down the run and short passing game. James Conner rushed for 4.52 yards per carry last week and the Patriots RBs went for 86 yards receiving the week prior, which makes this a spot where the Seahawks may consider deploying Charbonnet a little more as a receiver, which is one of his biggest strengths.

Just like Jennings, the edge for Charbonnet’s over is significant as we have him projected for 38.0 total rush yards (an 8.5-yard edge). He’s gone for 30+ rush/rec yards in every start this season, so with the 49ers defense reeling, I see no reason why he can’t extend that streak in game six.

Thursday Night Football Underdog Pick'em Entry

• Brock Purdy: Higher than 1.5 passing TDs
• Jauan Jennings: Higher than 2.5 receptions
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Higher than 6.5 targets
• Zach Charbonnet: Higher than 13.5 receiving yards
• Total Payout: 9.29x

I placed this 4-way ticket in our free Pick’em tracker earlier in the week. It’s playing some of our strongest projections mentioned above and also taking advantage of the fact we can play targets.

Right now we have Jaxon Smith-Njigba projected for 7.1 targets in this game, and any game flow where Purdy is throwing for two TDs (and hitting the higher on 1.5 passing TDs) makes it more likely JSN will produce for us as well.