Best MLB Bets Today: Top MLB Picks For Friday, May 31

With the NBA officially on hiatus for the next six days, we’re going to need some other sports to step up and fill the void. Fortunately, the MLB is always ready and willing to get the job done. Friday features a 15-game slate, with 14 of those contests starting at 6:40 p.m. ET or later.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite betting options for Friday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Friday, May 31

Astros ML vs. Twins (-112; FanDuel)

Friday’s matchup between the Astros and Twins features one of the more intriguing pitching matchups on the slate. Ronel Blanco will get the ball for the Astros, and he’s been the biggest surprise in baseball this season. He started the year with a no-hitter, and he’s built off his success since then, racking up a 1.99 ERA through his first nine outings. Nothing in his profile says he should be capable of these kinds of results… yet he keeps delivering the goods anyway. He’s yet to allow more than three earned runs in a start, and he’s allowed more than two earned runs only once.

The Twins don’t seem like the team to end Blanco’s streak of dominance. They’re merely 17th in wRC+ vs. right-handers, and they have the 12th-highest strikeout rate in that split. Overall, they grade out as slightly below average.

On the other side, Pablo Lopez has been established as one of baseball’s most underappreciated starters. However, he’s taken a major step backward in 2024. His ERA currently sits at 5.25, and while his xERA is significantly better (3.26), there are still some red flags. His 39.3% hard-hit rate is easily the worst mark of his career – well above his 34.7% career average – while his 40.1% groundball rate is his lowest mark at the MLB level.

The Astros’ offense is also starting to heat up: they’re fifth in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past 14 days. Ultimately, this price tag is based more on Lopez’s reputation than production. I’m happy to roll with the Astros at anything better than -125.

White Sox F5 ML at Brewers (+126; FanDuel)

Erick Fedde is back in the US after playing his trade in Korea last season, and he looks like a completely different pitcher. Fedde racked up a 2.00 ERA, 209 strikeouts, and a 20-6 record in the KBO – taking home the triple-crown and their version of the Cy Young Award in the process – and he’s been able to carry that success back into the MLB. He owns a 2.80 ERA and 3.40 xERA through his first 11 starts, leaning on a completely revamped pitch mix. His slider has become one of the best in baseball, ranking 11th in Stuff+ among qualified starters.

Fedde gives the White Sox a significant edge on the bump over the first five innings against Tobias Myers. The journeyman has bounced all throughout baseball since getting drafted in 2016 before finally getting a chance with the Brewers. He hasn’t been awful, but his 4.43 xERA is nothing to write home about.

The price on the first five moneyline isn’t nearly as appealing as the full game, but I’m looking to take these bullpens out of the equation. Chicago ranks 19th in bullpen ERA this season, while the Brewers have one of the best backends in the league. That’s a worthy tradeoff.

More MLB Bets for Friday, May 31

A’s-Braves Under 8.0 (-105)

The Braves are in a bit of a funk at the moment. They’ve dropped five of their past seven and 10 of their past 15, putting them 6.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East standings. They also lost Ronald Acuna to a season-ending injury, so their outlook isn’t particularly rosy. Their big issue has been offensively, ranking just 22nd in wRC+ over the past 14 days. I’m expecting the scoring drought to continue on Friday, with J.P. Sears getting the call for the A’s. He’s one of their best pitchers (3.88 ERA), while Reynaldo Lopez should be able to keep the A’s offense at bay.

Tobias Myers Under 4.5 strikeouts (-120)

Myers may have earned a spot in the Brewers’ rotation, but he’s still on a pretty short leash. He’s yet to throw more than five innings in a start this season, and he’s thrown 4.1 innings or fewer in his past three. Myers is far from an elite strikeout pitcher, so he’s going to struggle to get to five strikeouts without throwing more innings. The White Sox are also a middling matchup from a strikeout perspective, ranking 16th in strikeout rate vs. right-handers.

2024 MLB Bets Record

Yesterday: 3-1 (+1.305 units)
Season: 110-123-6 (-14.785 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.