In today's Betting Life Newsletter:

Clash Of The Titans: Every new addition to our MLB team preview series means another stride closer to home plate and scoring some Opening Day action. I hope you’ve enjoyed these detailed windows into each team, which aim to give you a leg up on preseason baseball betting markets with all the most recent analysis.

We’re still camped out on the beast coast in the National League East division with the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves—two of the five heaviest favorites to raise the Commissioner's Trophy in early November. Today, I’ll take you through what promises to be one of MLB’s most heated and tightly contested divisional rivalries.

But first, let’s check last year’s team double play leaders …

2024 Team Leaderboard: Groundball Double Plays

And, of course, what kind of betting newsletter would this be if we didn’t put all this great analysis to good use and wrap up with my favorite future bet?

📕 We’ve archived all of our MLB team betting previews here, along with my correlating futures plays. Give them a read when you have a minute!

🏈 To my fantasy football people, of course, we have you covered on Fantasy Life:

🆓 It’s free agency week, and we’re tracking every fantasy-relevant move with our NFL Free Agency Tracker, speculating on the latest Aaron Rodgers drama, and looking at what ADPs are bound to rise from these recent signings.

🔮 Thor Nystrom just published his scouting report on Matthew Golden, one of the rising stars in the incoming wideout class.

💪 Speaking of incoming draftees, Dwain McFarland delivered the Rookie WR Super Model for the 2025 WR class.

OK, time to get back to some hardball in the NL East! Click this button below 👇 to head to our futures page!

ARE THE BRAVES A SURE THING TO WIN THE NL EAST?

Do people still have watercoolers? Around the Slack? Here’s what I’m reading …

👀 Do you play dynasty fantasy football? Free agency impacts you, too!

⚾️ Shohei Ohtani takes the NFL? Well, kinda.

🚀 A running back scorching up draft boards that isn’t named Ashton Jeanty. Who is it?

⚽️ The Kelce brothers are breaking news during free agency … Ted Lasso fans, listen up!

😭 Marquette backers, look away. A Brutal beat.

⚾🔔MLB Team Preview—Philadelphia Phillies🔔⚾

Ding-dong, the Liberty Bell’s ready to ring and kick off the season for the winner of 2024’s toughest division. Speaking of the N.L. East's superiority, an unbelievable three of the top five favorites to win the World Series play there—which makes sense, though I can’t remember that happening before. The Fighting Phils got bounced in the NLDS by New York after a 95-win campaign, good for second-best in MLB. 

With their entire cast of characters returning for another go-around, very little stands in the way of another playoff run. Plus, they’ve got the best mascot in professional sports, which has to count for something, right?

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

1. Trea Turner, SS: .274 / 85 / 77 / 19 / 23
2. Bryce Harper, 1B: .271 / 86 / 85 / 25 / 9
3. Alec Bohm, 3B: .270 / 69 / 73 / 16 / 3
4. Kyle Schwarber, DH: .217 / 88 / 96 / 34 / 4
5. Nick Castellanos, LF: .252 / 71 / 78 / 20 / 6
6. Max Kepler, RF: .238 / 51 / 56 / 16 / 1
7. J.T. Realmuto, C: .256 / 58 / 57 / 16 / 10
8. Bryson Stott, SS: .255 / 74 / 57 / 12 / 25
9. Brandon Marsh, CF: .237 / 61 / 49 / 13 / 14

Hitting Overview: Philadelphia’s lineup makes perfect nightmare fuel for opposing pitchers. Finishing top-5 in BA, OPS, and wOBA last season with plenty of pop throughout the order, there’s no rest for the weary facing the Phils. 

Presenting a rather eclectic mix of plate approaches, ranging from the very good (Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott) to the very bad (Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh), no single pitching style matches up perfectly against this offense. They seem to have an answer for every question.

I mentioned the power present, and it can’t be overstated. Not only is Citizens Bank Park a top-5 park in terms of park factor, but these guys straight-up mash. All four hitters to start the order posted a +.450 SLG,+.781 OPS and +41% Hard Hit rate in 2024. Perennial MVP candidate Bryce Harper is now two full years removed from his Tommy John surgery with a normal offseason of prep under his belt, rather than one spent rehabbing—he’s in line for a monster year.

And talk about depth—any of Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto, or even Max Kepler bats in the top half of most other orders. A healthy season from this offense should set them up for another top-5 finish in run differential and a real shot at the championship. 

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

1. Zack Wheeler, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
2. Aaron Nola, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
3. Cristopher Sánchez, LHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
4. Ranger Suárez, LHP: ⭐⭐⭐
5. Jesus Luzardo, LHP: ⭐⭐⭐

Starting Pitching Overview: Just when you thought hitting represented the Phillies’ carrying tool, it’s paired with one of the best staffs in MLB. Ace Zack Wheeler just finished as the runner-up in Cy Young voting for the second time in four years (200 IP; 2.56 ERA, 0.95 WHIP), returning among the favorites yet again. 

If Philly’s got a type on the mound, it’s simpatico with my own—control, control, control. All four of PHI’s returning starters posted a sub 6.6% BB rate in 2024, but that’s not all. Commanding the lower third of the zones resulted in both elevated chase and groundball rates, resulting in not one expected earned run average (xERA) north of 3.75.

Keep one eyeball especially fixed on southpaw Cristopher Sánchez, who showed up to spring training with boosted velocity and a devastating changeup. He’s grabbed the fantasy world by storm early on (11.2 IP, 3 ER, 17 K, 2BB)—and it looks like he’s about to take a huge step forward as a breakout candidate.

Last but certainly not least, General Manager Sam Fuld went out this winter and traded prospects Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd for high-upside lefty Jesús Luzardo. While I’m not crazy about the Jesus Lizard’s four-seamer (too much sink reduces whiff generation), he’s got two separate overwhelming secondaries—both the slider and changeup induced remarkable +40% Whiff rates while suppressing hard contact (sub-.350 xSLG). 

Stacked throughout the roster with impact players at nearly every position, Philly’s exactly the type of team that could rattle off long in-season win streaks.

WHAT ARE THE PHILLIES’ CHANCES TO MAKE THE WORLD SERIES?

⚾🏹MLB Team Preview—Atlanta Braves🏹⚾

The operative word down in Hotlanta this MLB season? Patience. Coming off a relatively disappointing season that still resulted in 89 wins plus a playoff appearance, the Braves find themselves in an interesting spot early on. 

Built for a deep run at the title, can they weather an early storm of injuries long enough for a duo of top-tier superstars to return? If the answer’s yes, adding both Ronald Acuña and Spencer Strider back into the fold immediately makes the Braves one of the scariest teams in the league—and formidable competition for the already-anointed world champion Dodgers.

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

1. Jurickson Profar, LF: .248 / 74 / 62 / 16 / 5
2. Austin Riley, 3B: .272 / 92 / 98 / 33 / 1
3. Matt Olson, 1B: .246 / 88 / 95 / 33 / 0
4. Marcell Ozuna, DH: .256 / 82 / 90 / 30 / 1
5. Michael Harris II, CF: .274 / 82 / 70 / 19 / 20
6. Ozzie Albies, 2B: .259 / 78 / 74 / 20 / 11
7. Drake Baldwin, C: .234 / 52 / 50 / 10 / 0
8. Orlando Arcia, SS: .229 / 51 / 52 / 12 / 1
9. Jarred Kelenic, RF: .236 / 34 / 30 / 8 / 6

Hitting Overview: Perhaps my favorite GM in all of baseball, Alex Anthopoulos never rests on his laurels. After a (very) long-awaited breakout from Jurickson Profar in San Diego, Atlanta snatched up the versatile outfielder’s services on a reasonable three-year $42M deal. Archetyping as a top-of-the-order bat (low K, high BB, high contact) he’ll plug the gap as the Braves' leadoff man until El Abusador returns from his second ACL tear in three years.

Then it’s every pitcher’s darkest fears manifested in the most prolific back-to-back-to-back hitters in MLB. The trio of Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Marcell Ozuna is just ridiculous from an underpinning power metric perspective—all three posted a +.205 ISO, +47.7% Hard Hit, 12.4% Barrel, +.423 xwOBAcon, and +12.4% Pulled FBLD in 2024. Even as somewhat of an advanced pitching analyst, I’m not sure how to attack the middle of this order, short of praying for survival.

Similar to the Phillies mentioned above, the center of this order would man the top third in the majority of normal offenses. Both Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II have produced admirably in the big show—there’s just not enough room at the inn to bat them any higher.

Braves fans audibly gasped when backstop Sean Murphy broke his ribs, costing him an early chunk of 2025, but fear not. Backup Drake Baldwin’s the organization’s top prospect and already receiving high praise from batterymate Chris Sale. There’s also former sixth-overall pick Jarred Kelenic pulling up the caboose. While his poor approach sticks out like a sore thumb compared to the rest of this collective, he’s shown flashes of fulfilling a once-glowing prophecy and just needs to tread water until Acuña returns.

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

1. Chris Sale, LHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
2. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
3. Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
4. Grant Holmes, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐
5. Ian Anderson, RHP: ⭐

Pitching Overview: Did I mention Atlanta’s got one of the best General Managers in pro sports? The Braves rotation is insanely good because of course it is. From winning trades (Chris Sale) to smashing top draft picks (Spencer Schwellenbach), converting relievers successfully (Reynaldo Lopez), and acing the free-agent market (Grant Holmes), there’s not a single hole in Double-A’s game.

Once again wishing I had access to half-star emojis to denote potential breakouts, feel free to safely tack one on to each of the top four starters in your mind. They’re all so incredibly effective on the bump it’s scary—not one posted a WHIP over 1.19, ball rate over 34.6% or K-BB% below 19.5%. That type of production will play anywhere, and the Braves will need it in this division. I can’t wait for Atlanta and Philadelphia to match up; every series is already essentially guaranteed to be an instant classic. 

And, oh yeah, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, some guy named Spencer Strider is ahead of schedule and aiming to return in late April. Considering ramp-up times, I still think it’s a bit optimistic, but who cares? When he does return, the assumption is he’ll be back to Jacob deGrom levels of dominance. In 318.1 IP of work across the 2022-2023 seasons, the 26-year-old fireballer posted a 3.36 ERA (2.97 SIERA), 1.05 WHIP, and mind-blowing 29.4% K-BB. This Braves team clicking on all cylinders looks unstoppable on paper.

IS AUSTIN RILEY AN MVP LONGSHOT?

🔮 Look Into My Crystal Ball: Quick Hit Futures Bets 🔮

Please note the reduced risk on future plays before anything else. If you’re wondering why these wagers are all fractional, it’s not just because I’m responsible, care about you, or happen to be very good at what I do. 

It’s important whenever open-ended betting to always keep bankroll management in mind. Speaking from experience, it’s way too easy to wind up with a season-long ticket carrying more risk exposure than we’re comfortable with. Please bet responsibly, it’s the key to sustainability—you can’t make any money if your account is at $0.

THE BET: Spencer Schwellenbach To Lead MLB In Wins (+5000) On DraftKings, Risk (0.10u ONLY) 

Pitching wins are weird at the very least, and are even often referred to as the stupidest stat in sports—but at 50:1, that variance is already baked into the price. Not many casual fans know who 24-year-old sophomore Spencer Schwellenbach is, and that’s about to change in 2025.

After what was a legitimately brilliant rookie season on the bump (3.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 20.8% K-BB), Schwellenbach achieved something incredible the lay fan would never guess by throwing 213.2 IP across all levels in 2024. In the name of transparency, I had trouble verifying definitively, but I’m pretty sure it was the highest total in all of professional baseball.

His elite strike throwing and command ability (50.1% Strike, 30.7% Ball) helped him average over 17 outs per game started. Posting a top-20 finish in terms of efficiency during your rookie season with this type of prolific offense behind you makes the listed (+5000) odds a major misprice by my calculation.

Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!

WHAT ABOUT SCHWELLENBACH’S CY YOUNG ODDS?

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