MLB All-Star Game Best Bets: A low-scoring affair on tap?

Well, the Home Run Derby was… something. I’m not sure whose idea it was to make there fewer homers in the Derby, but that guy should start updating his resume. We were also treated to one of the most talked-about National Anthems in history.

Anyway, we’re on to the main event.

The midsummer classic will pit the National League against the American League, with the event taking place in Arlington. Paul Skenes will get the start at pitcher for the National League, while Corbin Burnes will start for the AL.

Let’s dive into some of my best bets for the MLB All-Star Game.

Best Bets for the 2024 MLB All-Star Game

American League ML vs. National League (-118; FanDuel)

It’s always tempting to grab the underdog in an exhibition, but the talent discrepancy between these two squads feels bigger than usual. The top four hitters in fWAR this season all hail from the American League (Aaron Judge, Gunnar Henderson, Bobby Witt, and Juan Soto), and they also grab eight of the top 13 slots. Two of the NL's top three in WAR (Elly De La Cruz and Francisco Lindor) aren’t in the starting lineup, with Lindor not even making the team. Outside of Shohei Ohtani, there is a serious lack of star power in the NL lineup.

The gap is equally stark at pitcher. Five of the top six pitchers in fWAR hail from the American League, including each of the top four. Burnes, Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal, Seth Lugo, and Tanner Houck should be able to deal in their respective innings before handing the ball to guys like Mason Miller (1.67 FIP) and Emmanuel Clase (2.17 FIP).

Of course, the AL dominating the All-Star game is nothing new. The NL managed to get on the board with a 3-2 win last year, but the AL had won the previous nine contests. I like their chances to start a new streak on Tuesday.

Under 7.5 runs (-118; FanDuel)

This is my favorite way to bet this contest.

Similarly to betting the under in the Home Run Derby, it may not be the most fun way to enjoy the All-Star Game. However, this number is simply too high.

Scoring is down across the MLB this season, and pitchers continue to get nastier and nastier. Now, the starting pitchers who are used to going six or seven innings can empty the tank in one. Expect to see even more velocity and sharper breaking balls than usual.

The All-Star game has featured seven runs or fewer in four consecutive seasons, and it’s gone under 7.5 in six of the past seven events. That includes a seven-run showing at Coors Field, which is easily the most hitter-friendly venue in baseball. If they couldn’t crack eight runs in the thin Rocky Mountain air, I don’t think they can do it in Texas.

More Bets for the MLB All-Star Game

Paul Skenes 2+ Strikeouts (+135)

Skenes is arguably the biggest star in baseball at the moment. The No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft has wasted little time establishing himself as the best pitcher in the league. While most professionals are still getting their feet wet in the minors in their first full professional season, Skenes is starting the All-Star game.

He has the metrics to back it up. He’s striking out 34.9% of opposing batters, which puts him in the 98th percentile. Overall, he’s racked up 89 strikeouts in 66.1 innings, along with a ridiculous 1.80 ERA.

Skenes will likely pitch just one inning, and he’ll have to navigate an extremely tough trio in Steven Kwan, Soto, and Judge. Still, I’m not betting against Skenes vs. anyone at the moment. With his adrenaline pumping, I’m expecting him to sit above 100 miles per hour and make some of the best hitters on the planet look silly.

No Run First Inning (-135)

This is another play that correlates nicely with both the full game under and Skenes’ strikeout prop. Burnes has also had plenty of success in the first inning this season, posting a 2.37 ERA in the opening frame. We had a scoreless opening frame in 2023, and I’m expecting another pair of donuts on Tuesday.

2024 MLB Bets Record

Home Run Derby: 3-2 (+0.875 units)
Season: 181-183-9 (-9.71 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.