Best MLB Bets Today: Top MLB Picks For Monday, May 20

Do you have a case of the Mondays? I’m feeling that way myself. After two NBA Game 7s on Sunday, we have a rare off day during the postseason. Sure, we do have a big NHL Game 7 between the Oilers and Canucks, but the sports calendar is still feeling a bit barren.

Fortunately, we always have baseball to fall back on. The new week means the start of a bunch of new series, and we’ll have an 11-game main slate to choose from this evening. Let’s dive into some of my favorite options for Monday’s slate.

Top MLB Picks for May 20

Red Sox vs. Rays F5 Under 4.0 (-125; BetMGM)

This matchup features two pitchers that are clear buys at this point in the season. The Red Sox will turn to Tanner Houck, who has been outstanding to start the year. He ranks fifth in Pitching+ among qualified starters, trailing only the elite quartet of Jared Jones, Corbin Burnes, Zach Wheeler, and Tarik Skubal.

He combines an elite walk rate (4.7%), groundball rate (56.2%), and barrel rate (3.7%), making it difficult for opposing offenses to string enough baserunners together to score. His ERA is a sparkling 2.17 through his first nine starts, and his 2.24 FIP suggests it isn’t particularly fluky.

On the other side, Taj Bradley is dripping with potential. He was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball heading into last season, and he’s pitched to a 2.45 ERA through his first two starts this season. He’s striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings, and his Stuff+ sits at 109 since debuting last year.

The Red Sox did make a bunch of hard contact against Bradley in their last outing, but I’m buying his talent level. Under 4.0 over the first five innings is a solid option.

Mets ML at Guardians (+110; BetMGM)

The Mets can’t seem to get out of their own way at the moment. Edwin Diaz – once the unquestioned best closer in baseball – has failed to convert three straight leads, including a disastrous four-run blown save vs. the Marlins over the weekend. Their offense continues to run hot and cold, and they’ll face an uphill battle against the Guardians on Monday. Cleveland has jumped out to a 30-17 record this season, good for the second-best mark in the American League.

The good news for the Mets is that they’ll get Tylor Megill back in Game 1 of this series. On the surface, Megill rejoining the rotation might not be that exciting. He’s yet to have a season with an ERA below 4.52, and he was never considered a big-time pitching prospect.

However, Megill added a cutter and a splitter to his repertoire during the offseason, and it propelled him to excellent results during Spring Training. He posted a 3.92 ERA while striking out 23 batters in 20.2 innings.

Ultimately, Megill feels like he could be undervalued at the moment, and he’s facing a starter who has been fortunate to start the year in Ben Lively (3.06 ERA; 4.21 xERA). I’ll roll the dice on the Mets as small dogs.

More MLB Bets for Monday, May 20

Tigers ML at Royals (+100)

Reese Olson has pitched to a 2.09 ERA this season, thanks mostly to his ability to limit the damage on balls in play. His ground ball rate ranks in the 89th percentile, and keeping the ball on the ground is a great way to overcome mediocre strikeout numbers. I give him the edge over Michael Wacha, making the Tigers live dogs at +100.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 5.5 (+126)

Yamamoto feels like a slight disappointment after signing the largest contract ever awarded to a pitcher, but he’s been pretty effective in his rookie season. He’s gone over 5.5 strikeouts in the majority of his starts this season, but his first outing vs. the Diamondbacks was an exception. He managed just five punchouts across six innings, and the Diamondbacks boast one of the lowest strikeout rates against right-handed pitchers. It wouldn’t surprise me if he had a similar outcome on Monday, so I’ll grab the Under at +126.

2024 MLB Bets Record

Yesterday: 1-3 (-0.805 units)
Season: 90-105-6 (-15.8 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.