Best MLB Bets Today: Top MLB Picks For Thursday, June 6

After a full slate on Wednesday, we have a slightly truncated slate to choose from on Thursday. 10 games are currently on the schedule, with three afternoon contests and seven taking place in the evening.

Let’s dive into four of my favorite betting options for Thursday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Thursday, June 6

Pittsburgh Pirates-Los Angeles Dodgers Over 9.0 runs (-118; FanDuel)

Thursday seems like a good day for offense. The weather is starting to heat up, and the conditions for hitting look favorable across the MLB. That’s particularly true in Pittsburgh, where the current forecast calls for 76-degree temperatures and winds blowing out to left field.

These two squads combined for 16 runs on Wednesday, and that was with Paul Skenes on the bump. Thursday’s pitchers are far less impressive. The Pirates will turn to Bailey Falter, who has been extremely fortunate so far this season. He owns a 3.22 ERA, but opposing batters have managed a paltry .195 BABIP. His 4.73 xERA is a more accurate representation of his talent level.

The Dodgers will send Walker Buehler to the bump, who has been a middling starter since his return from injury. He owns a 4.32 ERA and a 4.07 xERA, while his strikeout metrics are brutal: He ranks in the 11th percentile in Whiff rate and the fourth percentile in Chase rate.

The Pirates have also used most of their top relievers on back-to-back days – Colin Holderman, Aroldis Chapman, and David Bednar – so the back-end of their bullpen is going to be far weaker than usual. Ultimately, this has all the makings of a high-scoring affair.

Seattle Mariners ML at Oakland Athletics (-140; Caesars)

The A’s have not been nearly as bad as expected this season, but they’re still not particularly good. They’ve won just 39.7% of their contests this season, putting them in fourth place in the AL West.

They’re going to have their hands full Thursday vs. Bryan Woo. Woo has dominated in five starts this season, pitching to a 1.30 ERA and a 2.08 xERA. He excels at limiting the number of free passes (2.0% walk rate) and barrels (2.6%), which makes up for his subpar strikeout metrics. Woo probably won’t pitch to a sub-2.00 ERA all season, but he stands out as an elite control pitcher.

He gives the Mariners a significant edge on the mound against J.P. Sears. Sears isn’t awful, but his 4.13 xERA is nothing to write home about. He’s the definition of a replacement-level arm, ranking in the bottom half of the league in most pitching metrics.

These two teams have been roughly even offensively in their current splits – 97 wRC+ vs. left-handers for the Mariners, 98 vs. right-handers for the A’s – so I’ll take my chances with Woo at this price every day of the week.

More MLB Bets for Thursday, June 6

Cubs-Reds Over 9.5 (-104)

This is another contest where the conditions look very favorable for the hitters. The winds are expected to be blowing out to left center at around 10 miles per hour, and the Great American Ballpark is already one of the most homer-prone venues in baseball. Javier Assad and Hunter Greene have had excellent seasons, but both pitchers have their flaws. Greene allows tons of fly balls – which isn’t a good formula with the wind blowing out – while Assad has drastically outpitched his peripherals (2.27 ERA; 3.72 xERA). It’s a spot where both pitchers could struggle.

Mitchell Parker Under 4.5 strikeouts (+110)

Mitchell Parker has had a solid rookie season, pitching to a 3.60 ERA and 3.47 xERA. However, he’s not a particularly strong strikeout pitcher, ranking in the 43rd percentile in strikeout rate, and he’ll draw a brutal matchup vs. the Braves on Thursday. Atlanta’s offense hasn’t exactly been firing on all cylinders of late, but they remain one of the most talented groups of hitters in baseball. Even without Ronald Acuna Jr., this lineup is capable of doing damage one through nine. They also saw Parker two weeks ago, so they should be ready for the rematch.

2024 MLB Bets Record

Yesterday: 2-2 (+0.02 units)
Season: 121-133-6 (-13.825 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.