Best MLB Bets Today: Top MLB Picks For Thursday, May 23

Thursday’s slate is a light one for baseball. There are only eight games to choose from, and most of the action will come in the afternoon. Six contests will start at 3:37 p.m. ET or earlier, followed by a two-game evening slate.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite betting options for Thursday.

Top MLB Picks for May 23

Braves at Cubs Under 9.0 (-115; BetMGM)

The wind conditions at Wrigley Field look pretty neutral for Thursday. However, whatever wind there is should be slightly favorable for the pitchers. It’s blowing in from right field, so it’s not going to be of any benefit for the offenses.

The bigger reason for the under is that these squads just aren’t hitting at the moment. Atlanta did break out of their slumber for nine runs on Wednesday, but they’re still just 17th in wRC+ over their past seven days. The Cubs are 30th over the same time frame, so neither of these offenses is seeing the ball well.

The Braves will also have an intriguing young starter on the mound in AJ Smith-Shawver. He’s their No. 1 prospect, and he’s posted a respectable 3.79 xERA in 25.1 innings this season. I’m not nearly as bullish on Ben Brown (3.57 ERA; 5.06 xERA), but I think these two starters can do just enough to keep this game under.

Orioles ML at White Sox (-238; DraftKings)

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The Orioles were swept in their most recent series, something that hasn’t happened since 2022. They went 106 series without being swept, making it the third-longest streak in MLB history. The only two longer streaks happened before World War II, so the Orioles' run has been basically unprecedented in modern baseball.

Fortunately, the Orioles will get right back to work on Thursday with what should be an easy series. The White Sox have been the worst team in baseball this season, compiling a 15-35 record while ranking dead last in run differential. They’ve been outscored by 107 runs through their first 50 games, which puts them in their own tier for futility. The Marlins have the second-worst mark, and they’re at merely -82.

The Orioles will have a significant advantage on the bump on Thursday, with Grayson Rodriguez taking on Mike Clevinger. Rodriguez was once one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, and he owns a respectable 3.15 ERA this season. Clevinger has pitched to a 5.56 ERA in his three outings, and his 7.13 xERA is even worse.

-238 is a big number for baseball, but it still feels too light for the Orioles. They’re significantly better than the White Sox in all facets of the game. You could choose to play them on the run line if you don’t want to lay as much juice, but I prefer the moneyline.

More MLB Bets for Thursday, May 23

Rockies-Athletics F5 Over 4.5 (+100)

A matchup between the Rockies and Athletics in Oakland doesn’t exactly scream “offense,” but the pitching matchup is too good to pass up from an over perspective. Joey Estes has been rocked in his two starts for the A’s, pitching to a 9.35 ERA. Ryan Feltner hasn’t been much better for the Rockies; he’s on pace for an ERA above 5.50 for the third straight year. The A’s bullpen is pretty formidable with Mason Miller in the back, so I’m targeting the first five over instead of the full game.

Tigers ML vs. Blue Jays (-108)

Kevin Gausman has been one of my favorite pitchers over the past few seasons, but he hasn’t been the same pitcher in 2024. His strikeout rate is way down, resulting in an unsightly 5.40 xERA. Gausman has always pitched to an elevated BABIP, so he needs to rack up the strikeouts to keep opposing offenses at bay. Jack Flaherty has been significantly better for the Tigers, posting a 2.91 xERA. He looks rejuvenated in his first full year outside of St. Louis, so I give his Tigers the edge in this contest.

2024 MLB Bets Record

Yesterday: 2-2 (+0.675 units)
Season: 96-111-6 (-15.21 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.