Best MLB Bets Today: Top MLB Picks For Tuesday, July 9

After a smaller slate on Monday, the MLB is back with a full complement of games on Tuesday. All 30 teams are scheduled to take the field, with each contest scheduled to start at 6:35 p.m. ET or later. That gives us a full evening to look for value in the betting market.

Let’s dive into four of my favorite options for Tuesday’s slate.

MLB BETS TODAY – PICKS FOR TUESDAY, JULY 9

Tampa Bay Rays ML vs. New York Yankees (+105; BetMGM)

The Yankees have been in a major tailspin of late. After dropping two of three to the Red Sox over the weekend, they’ve now won just five of their past 20 games. They’ve fallen three games behind the Orioles in the AL East, and their gap over the third-place Red Sox is shrinking.

The Yankees will right the ship eventually, but I’m betting it’s after the All-Star break. The team figures to make some moves at the trade deadline that will help, but for the time being, their lineup isn’t particularly threatening. If you can avoid Aaron Judge and Juan Soto – easier said than done – no one else is really capable of hurting you.

I like the value with the Rays as small home underdogs on Tuesday. They’ll send Ryan Pepiot to the bump, who was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers. Pepiot has all the makings of a stud pitcher, even if his production hasn’t been up to that level this season. Among pitchers with at least 75 innings this season, Pepiot ranks eighth in Stuff+.

On the other side, Carlos Rodon has been very hittable for the Yankees. His xERA sits at 4.49, while he ranks in the 18th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, groundball rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate. He’s not striking out as many batters as he did in his prime, and when they’re making contact, it tends to be high quality.

The Rays offense has also been at its best against left-handers this season, posting a 111 wRC+. There’s a lot to like in this matchup.

Los Angeles Dodgers ML at Philadelphia Phillies (+120; DraftKings)

The two best teams in the National League – at least in terms of record – will start up a series in Philadelphia on Tuesday. It’s a marquee matchup that could potentially impact the playoff seeding in the postseason.

The Phillies will turn to their ace in Game 1 (Zack Wheeler), while the Dodgers will counter with Bobby Miller. Miller has struggled to make an impact at the big-league level, posting a 6.12 ERA and 5.44 xERA through six starts this season. On paper, that gives the Phillies a sizable edge.

However, Miller is a lot better than his current numbers look. He was ranked as high as the No. 32 prospect in baseball in 2023, and he throws as hard as anyone. He had success at every level of the minor leagues, so it feels like a matter of time before he’s making big leaguers look foolish. I’m looking to buy low on him while I can.

Of course, the Dodgers also boast one of the best offenses in baseball. Their lineup is capable of doing damage against any pitcher, including Wheeler. They’re fourth in wRC+ vs. right-handers, and they’re also fourth in that split over the past 14 days. The Phillies are merely 23rd over the same time frame, so their offense isn’t entering this contest in the same recent form.

Ultimately, you only have so many chances to grab a team like the Dodgers at better than even money. I’m taking advantage while I can.

MORE MLB BETS FOR TUESDAY, JULY 9

White Sox F5 ML vs. Twins (+130)

The White Sox have been a prime target for me whenever Erick Fedde has been on the bump. He’s a completely different pitcher than he was in his first MLB stint, tallying a 3.57 xERA with solid Statcast metrics across 18 starts. I don’t trust the White Sox’s bullpen in the slightest – they rank 27th in bullpen ERA – but there’s value with the home team as +130 dogs in the first five innings.

Roansy Contreras Under 3.5 strikeouts (-140)

Roansy Contreras has taken over as a starting pitcher with the Angels, but he’s still commanding a minimal workload. He’s gone three innings or fewer in his two starts, racking up five total strikeouts in the process. For the year, Contreras has a K rate of just 20.5%, putting him in the 20th percentile for MLB pitchers. Even if he works a little deeper into the game on Tuesday, getting four strikeouts vs. the Rangers won’t be an easy task: they have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate against right-handers this season.

2024 MLB BETS RECORD

Yesterday: 1-2-1 (-0.625 units)
Season: 166-172-9 (-11.93 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.