Best MLB Bets Today: Top MLB Picks For Wednesday, May 22

Wednesday is typically one of my favorite days for baseball. We have a good mix of afternoon and evening contests, and this Wednesday is no exception. Five games will start at 2:10 p.m. ET or earlier, followed by a 10-game main slate at 6:40 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite MLB picks for Wednesday, May 22.

Top MLB Picks for May 22

Pirates F5 ML vs. Giants (-130; Caesars)

Jared Jones will be on the bump for the Pirates on Wednesday, which means I’m contractually obligated to talk about him. Jones hasn’t just been one of the most exciting young pitchers in baseball this season, he’s been one of the best pitchers overall, full stop. He leads the league in both Stuff+ and Pitching+ among qualified starters, and no one else is even all that close. Jones has had plenty of traditional success, too, racking up a 2.89 ERA with some of the best strikeout metrics in baseball.

Jones will be opposed by Blake Snell on Wednesday, and that’s a scary matchup on paper. That said, Snell has not been nearly the same pitcher that he was in 2023. His ERA currently sits at 11.57, and while that’s obviously an outlier, his 4.11 xERA is still below average. Snell was impressive in his two minor league rehab outings following a stint on the IL, but I still give Jones a clear advantage on the bump.

The Pirates’ offense has also been at their best against southpaws this season, posting a 104 wRC+ in that split. I’d rather leave the bullpens out of the equation – both teams are bottom-nine in bullpen ERA – so the first five moneyline is the preferred option.

Rangers ML at Phillies (+116; FanDuel)

The Phillies have been the best team in baseball this season. They’re first in the league in runs per game, and they have the third-best team ERA. That’s a pretty strong combination. They’re tied with the Dodgers for the best run differential in the league, and with the Braves hitting a recent skid, they own a six-game lead in the NL East.

However, the Phillies will send undoubtedly their worst starter to the mound on Wednesday: Taijuan Walker. Walker has a 4.91 ERA through his first four starts, and that undersells how poor he’s been. His xERA sits at 6.30, and he’s near the bottom of the league in nearly every important pitching metric. His velocity and pitch modeling metrics are also down, so he’s a prime fade candidate at the moment.

The Rangers can tee off on right-handed pitching, ranking seventh in wRC+ in that split after ranking fourth last season. They should hopefully get Adolis Garcia back in the lineup on Wednesday, which will only make Walker’s life more difficult.

More MLB Bets for Wednesday, May 22

Cubs ML vs. Braves (+120)

I’m going to continue to pick on the slumping Braves. Justin Steele will get the ball for the Cubs, and he’s been an excellent pitcher over the past two seasons. He’s off to a rough start in 2024, but his underlying metrics suggest he’s been more unlucky than bad. Max Fried has some concerning indicators for the Braves, so I’ll take my chances with the Cubs as home dogs.

Diamondbacks ML at Dodgers (+235)

Is fading the Dodgers and Tyler Glasnow crazy? Possibly, but I’m willing to give it a shot anyway. Glasnow makes his living with strikeouts, and the Diamondbacks are one of the tougher teams in baseball to strike out. They’re also extremely aggressive on the bases, and Glasnow has struggled to hold baserunners; he’s allowed 26 steals on 29 attempts since the start of last season. Ryne Nelson has struggled this season, but his pitch modeling metrics remain encouraging (105 Stuff+, 105 Location+). I expect improvement eventually – why not today?

2024 MLB Bets Record

Yesterday: 4-0 (+2.03 units)
Season: 90-109-6 (-15.89 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.