Best MLB Bets Today: Top Picks For Friday, May 17

After a relatively quiet Thursday, we’re back in full swing with a 15-game slate on Friday. A handful of the game’s best young pitchers will be on the bump, so it should be an exciting night of action.

Let’s dive into five of my favorite betting options for Friday’s slate, starting with a play on the lone afternoon contest:

MLB Best Bets for May 17

Pittsburgh Pirates ML at Chicago Cubs (-110; BetMGM)

Happy Paul Skenes Day! The Pirates boast a pair of the top pitching prospects in baseball, with Jared Jones and Skenes both doing remarkable things basically once a week. Jones led the Pirates to a win on Thursday despite not having his best stuff, and I expect Skenes to get the job done as well.

As good as Jones has been – he’s No. 1 in Stuff+ among qualified starters – Skenes is undoubtedly the better prospect. He was the No. 1 pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, and he dominated Triple-A to the tune of a 0.99 ERA and a 14.82 K/9. He exited his MLB debut after allowing just one run in four-plus innings, but a trio of Pirates’ relievers managed to inflate his ERA. Overall, he struck out seven of the 20 batters he faced and possesses some of the nastiest pitches in the game. He’s going to be really, really good, and he probably already is.

Meanwhile, Kyle Hendricks is far past his prime. He’s not as bad as his 10.04 ERA indicates, but his 6.12 xERA and 7.38 FIP are certainly nothing to get excited about. Hendricks is allowing homers in bunches this season (3.12 HR/9), and he ranks in the bottom fifth percentile in just about every expected metric.

This is a massive mismatch on the bump, and I’m slightly confused as to why the Pirates opened at +100. They’ve since come down to -110, but that still feels like a mistake. I’ll take my chances with the overwhelming talent of Skenes in this contest.

New York Mets ML at Miami Marlins (-120; FanDuel)

It has not been a fun stretch for the Mets. They’ve won just four of their last 12 games, including a 2-5 stretch against the Braves and Phillies. That’s dropped their record to just 20-23 for the year, albeit with a reasonable -8 run differential.

The Mets have to be breathing a sigh of relief that they’ll finally get an “easy” matchup vs. the Marlins. Miami has been a trainwreck this season, posting a 13-32 record with the worst run differential in baseball (-87). A year after making the playoffs, absolutely everything has gone wrong, and they’ve already started selling off pieces: Luis Arraez was shipped to the Padres basically one month into the season, so they’re officially waiving the white flag.

The Mets will send Christian Scott to the bump on Friday, and he’s emerged as a potential future frontline starter. He’s pitched to a 2.84 ERA, 3.11 xERA, and 2.64 FIP in his first two starts after tearing up Triple-A to start the year. He possesses an excellent combination of strikeout stuff and control, racking up a 14:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio through his first 12.2 MLB innings.

Jesus Luzardo has been significantly worse for the Marlins. He broke out over the previous two seasons, thanks in part to some newfound control. Unfortunately, that has abandoned him in 2024. He’s walking nearly four batters per nine innings, and when he’s not walking batters, they’re making elite contact against him. Luzardo ranks in the second percentile for barrel rate and the 21st percentile for average exit velocity.

Ultimately, this feels like a solid buy-low spot for the Mets. Scott is arguably already their best pitcher, so this is a very reasonable price tag.

More MLB Bets for Friday, May 17

Twins ML at Guardians (+105)

I’m going to continue to fade Triston McKenzie whenever the price is right, and Friday’s matchup vs. the Twins qualifies. McKenzie’s 3.54 ERA doesn’t look bad on the surface, but his xERA is nearly a full run higher. All his peripheral stats have also declined as he continues to pitch through an injury. I’ll take my chances with Simeon Woods-Richardson and the Twins.

Diamondbacks ML vs. Tigers (+120)

Tarik Skubal has emerged as the frontrunner for the AL Cy Young, and he deserves it. He owns a 2.02 ERA while racking up a 5-0 record for a sub-.500 ballclub. As good as Skubal is, he can only do so much. He’s merely preventing opponent runs; he can’t force his team to score them. The Diamondbacks have been as good as any team in baseball against southpaws this season (second in wRC+), giving them a significant offensive edge over the Tigers. Maybe Skubal will continue to mow down everything in his path, but if he stumbles a bit, the Tigers’ hitters are not going to bail him out. That makes the Diamondbacks intriguing home dogs.

Red Sox F5 ML at Cardinals (-120)

Brayan Bello will get the ball for Boston on Friday, and I like his prospects against an aging Cardinals’ lineup. Boston should be in a much better position to score against Kyle Gibson, who owns a 3.67 ERA but a dreadful 5.42 xERA. This is a much larger mismatch than the current prices suggest.

2024 MLB Bets Record

Yesterday: 0-4 (-2.15 units)
Season: 86-96-6 (-13.21 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.