Best MLB Bets Today: Top Picks For Saturday, May 18

We’ve got a sneaky-good sports day on top for Saturday. There’s a little bit of something for everyone. PGA Championship third round. The Preakness Stakes. Thunder-Mavericks Game 6 and Caitlin Clark vs. Sabrina Ionescu on the hardwood. Overall, it’s a great day to park yourself on the couch and put off whatever chores you have scheduled.

Of course, there’s also a strong baseball slate to choose from. All 30 teams are scheduled to take the field, with the action starting at 1:05 p.m. ET. There are games starting nearly every hour from then until 9:05.

Let’s dive into a few of my best MLB bets today.

MLB Best Bets for May 18

Padres ML at Braves (+106; FanDuel)

The Braves are a really good baseball team, but they’re not infallible. They dropped Game 1 of their series vs. the Padres, and they’ll be at a serious pitching disadvantage on Saturday.

The Braves will turn to Bryce Elder, who has been the weakest of their starters by a comfortable margin. His Baseball Savant page has more blue than the ocean. His xERA sits at 5.24, and he’s one of the worst strikeout pitchers in baseball. He makes up for it with an excellent groundball rate, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting a .455 xSLG.

On the other side, Yu Darvish has had a renaissance in 2024. After back-to-back down seasons, Darvish has posted a 2.43 ERA and 3.17 xERA. His strikeout numbers are down, but he’s made up for it with an excellent barrel rate. Darvish is likely due for some regression – he has just a .236 BABIP – but the Padres still have a significant edge on the bump in this matchup.

The Padres’ offense is also sneaky good. They’ve actually been more effective than the Braves against right-handed pitching this season (119 wRC+ vs. 105). With an edge on the mound and in the batter’s box, I’ll take my chances with the Padres as slight underdogs.

Tampa Bay Rays ML at Toronto Blue Jays (+115; Caesars)

I have long been a believer in Kevin Gausman, but there’s something off with him this season. His strikeout rate is way down and walk rate way up, resulting in an unsightly 5.59 xERA. His Stuff+ metric has dipped from 105 in 2023 to 99 this season, so the pitch modeling metrics are also down on Gausman.

Zach Eflin has undoubtedly been the better pitcher. He owns a 3.91 ERA, and his xERA is slightly better (3.51). He’s also one of the best control pitchers in baseball, posting a walk rate of just 1.8%.

The Rays also have a clear edge offensively. Tampa ranks 11th in wRC+ vs. right-handers after finishing as one of the best teams in baseball in that split last season. The Blue Jays are all the way down in 24th. This is another spot where it feels like the wrong team is favored.

More MLB Bets for Saturday, May 18

Nationals ML at Phillies (+150)

MacKenzie Gore is having a breakout season. His ERA is down to 3.38, and his xERA is in a similar range (3.79). He’s doing an excellent job of generating strikeouts and limiting the damage on balls in play, ranking in the 83rd percentile of both strikeout rate and average exit velocity. In terms of Stuff+, he’s sixth among starters with at least 40 innings this season. The Phillies are the better team, but they’re overpriced in this matchup.

Mets-Marlins Under 7.5 (-115)

The Mets' struggles against left-handed pitchers are well-documented. They’re merely 24th in wRC+ in that split, and they were kept off the scoreboard by a southpaw Friday in Jesus Luzardo. They’ll face another lefty on Saturday, so I’m not expecting much production. Luis Severino has been the Mets' best pitcher this season, so runs should be at a premium overall.

Jose Urena Under 3.5 strikeouts (+100)

Is taking a pitcher to finish with less than four strikeouts crazy? Maybe. But if you’re going to do it, it’s hard to find a stronger candidate than Urena. He’s had three strikeouts or fewer in his only two starts this season, and his 15.4% strikeout rate puts him in the 10th percentile. The Angels are a solid matchup for strikeout purposes, but I’m still willing to bet on three or fewer for Urena on Saturday.

2024 MLB Bets Record

Yesterday: 1-4 (-1.7 units)
Season: 87-100-6 (-14.91 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.