Best MLB Bets Today: Top Picks For Sunday, May 19

Baseball will be on the back burner for most people on Sunday. There’s a jam-packed leaderboard at the PGA Championship and two NBA Game 7s, so the MLB will not be most people’s priority.

That’s the beauty of baseball. Your attention may occasionally wane during the summer months, but baseball will always be there for you when you need it. Sunday’s slate will start on the early side, with 11 of the 15 games starting at 2:35 p.m. ET or earlier.

Let’s dive into a few of my favorite betting options for Sunday’s MLB slate.

MLB Best Bets for May 19

Rays vs. Blue Jays Over 8.5 (-105; FanDuel)

This is a pitching matchup that just screams over. The Blue Jays will turn to Alek Manoah, who remains a major question mark. He was once a top-flight starter, but he was sent all the way back to rookie ball at one point last year. Manoah has made it back to the big leagues, but he has just a 4.75 xERA through his first two appearances.

On the other side, Aaron Civale has been just as shaky for the Rays. He has a 5.83 ERA this season, and while his advanced metrics are slightly better, no one is going to confuse him with a Cy Young contender. His groundball rate sits at just 32.6%, and fly-ball pitchers tend to struggle with homers. Unsurprisingly, Civale has allowed 1.75 homers per nine innings for the year.

Neither of these offenses has been particularly potent this season, but this is a potential breakout spot for both sides. They certainly have the talent to do so; both teams were top-eight in wRC+ vs. right-handers last year.

Athletics ML at Royals (+145; DraftKings)

On paper, Brady Singer has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. He has a 2.84 ERA while striking out a career-best 9.24 batters per nine innings. The Royals have won six of his nine starts, so it’s not surprising they’re comfortable favorites vs. the A’s.

However, Singer’s performance hasn’t been nearly as impressive under the hood. He ranks merely 65th among qualified pitchers in terms of Stuff+ (87), and he’s 67th in Pitching+. His xERA is also more than 1.5 runs higher than his ERA, so he’s a prime regression candidate moving forward.

The A’s aren’t the ideal team for fading a pitcher, but they haven’t been quite as bad as expected this year. JP Sears has been significantly better than Singer in terms of Stuff+ and Pitching+, so he’s at least one of the A’s best starters. They also have arguably the best closer in baseball, so they should be able to protect a late lead if they get one.

More MLB Bets for Sunday, May 19

Angels ML at Rangers (+144)

The Angels will have an intriguing starter on the mound on Sunday in Jose Soriano. He throws as hard as anyone in the league – he ranks in the 98th percentile in fastball velocity – and he’s generated groundballs at an elite rate. He also grades out favorably in terms of Stuff+, so he’s a pitcher I’m interested in targeting. Michael Lorenzen seems a bit overvalued for the Rangers (3.75 ERA; 4.75 xERA), so this is a strong opportunity to target Los Angeles.

Tigers ML at Diamondbacks (+130)

Jordan Montgomery signed very late before the start of the season, and he has not been the same pitcher for Arizona that he was last year. He owns a 4.88 xERA through five starts, and he ranks in the seventh percentile or worse in strikeout rate and expected batting average. This number feels based on his pedigree more than his recent production.

2024 MLB Bets Record

Yesterday: 2-1 w/ one pending (+0.42 units)
Season: 89-101-6 (-14.49 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.