Best MLB Bets Today: Top Picks for Thursday, May 16

Thursday’s slate is one of the smallest we’ve seen in a while. There are only six games on the docket: five evening games and an afternoon contest between the Yankees and Twins.

It’s important not to force your usual amount of action on slates like this if it doesn’t feel natural. Since there are far fewer games to choose from, it’s OK to have fewer bets than usual.

Let’s dive into some of my best MLB bets today.

MLB Best Bets for May 16

Pirates-Cubs F5 Under 4.0 (-115; BetMGM)

Typically, the weather is the big reason to look for an under at Wrigley Field. When the wind is blowing in, it becomes one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in all of baseball. When it’s blowing out, it can look like Coors Field.

However, the wind is not expected to be a huge factor on Thursday. Instead, this under has to do with the pitching matchup.

Jared Jones will take the mound for the Pirates, who has been one of the best starters in baseball this season. He leads all qualified arms in Stuff+ and Pitching+, and his strikeout metrics are elite. Jones has yet to allow more than three earned runs in a start, and he’s been at two or fewer in four of his past five outings.

On the other side, Justin Steele will take the mound for the Cubs. He’s posted an ERA of just 4.73 through three starts this season, but he’s had an ERA of 3.18 or better over the past two years.

Overall, both of these starters should be able to keep runs off the scoreboard.

Athletics ML at Astros (+180; Caesars)

The 2024 A’s – not as bad as we thought they’d be! Not the catchiest marketing slogan, but for a franchise that has done everything possible to alienate its fanbase, it could be worse.

Believe it or not, the A’s are 19-26 through the first quarter of the season, which puts them above the Astros in the standings (18-25). Houston has started to play better after a dreadful start to the year, and their expected win-loss record suggests they’ve been a bit unlucky. Still, laying more than -200 with them feels like a mistake at this point.

That’s particularly true with Cristian Javier on the mound. Javier broke out in 2022, posting a 2.54 ERA across nearly 150 innings, but that’s starting to feel like a distant memory. His ERA dipped to 4.56 in 2023, and it’s above 4.00 once again in 2023. His 4.69 xERA suggests he’s been as poor as advertised, while his strikeout rate has plummeted since his breakout campaign.

The A’s will have a relative unknown on the mound in Joey Estes, who will be making just his second career start. However, things couldn’t have gone much better for him in the first, allowing just one run over five innings vs. the Mariners.

At this point, I’d rather take the uncertainty with Estes than the known commodity in Javier. The Astros are undoubtedly the better offensive team, but these prices feel like they’re still being valued like the championship squad of previous years.

More MLB Bets for Thursday, May 16

Mets-Phillies Under 8.0 (-105)

The wind didn’t help us in Philly last night, but it can only help you if you allow the batters to put the ball in play. The Mets had five walks and multiple errors, so they didn’t do themselves any favors. Still, I’m going right back to the well on Thursday. The wind conditions look similar – 11 mile per hour wind blowing in from right center – which should help keep the ball in the ballpark. The Phillies will have a pitching downgrade compared to Wednesday, but I’m not sure the Mets’ offense could score off me at this point.

Rays-Red Sox Under 7.5 (-105)

This is another windy under to consider, with a 10 mile per hour wind expected to be blowing in from dead center. These two teams will also have guys who have been successful on the bump this season. Zach Eflin owns a 3.49 xERA for the Rays, while Cooper Criswell has a 3.44 xERA for the Red Sox. This number has come down significantly since opening at 8.5, but I still think there’s enough value on the under to play it.

2024 MLB Bets Record

Yesterday: 3-2 (+0.59 units)
Season: 86-92-6 (-11.06 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.