Best NBA Finals Bets Today: Top Picks for Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 2

Well, Game 1 did not go exactly as planned. I fully expected the Celtics to control this series, but not to the degree that they did in Game 1. They jumped out to a 29-point lead in the first half, and despite a third-quarter run from the Mavs, were never in jeopardy of losing the game. The Celtics had a massive advantage from behind the 3-point line, outscoring the Mavericks by 29 points.

The big question is – can the Mavericks bounce back in Game 2?

Boston has been known for taking their foot off the gas at times, and both of their losses in the postseason have come in Game 2. They dropped Game 2 in their first-round series vs. the Heat and their second-round series vs. the Cavaliers.

Will the Mavericks keep that trend going, or will the Celtics continue to assert their dominance? Let’s dive into my best NBA Finals bets today.

Top Picks for Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 2

Mavericks-Celtics Under 215.5 points (-105; Caesars)

The sharps seem to prefer the Mavericks in Game 2. They’re down to +6.5 at some locations, and with the way the Celtics have struggled off big wins this postseason, I think that’s the right side. That said, you should (almost) never bet an underdog if you don’t think they can win the game outright, and I have a hard time seeing the Mavs winning this contest.

The big reason is the Celtics’ defense. Their game plan for Game 1 was absolutely perfect. They limited the Mavericks to just 27 total 3-point attempts, and a solid chunk of those came in garbage time. The 3s that they allowed were also calculated, limiting the number of corner 3s. Dallas shot just three 3-pointers from the corners in Game 1, while the Celtics had 14 opportunities.

Ultimately, if Boston can continue to take away the corner 3s, it’s going to be tough for the Mavericks to score in this series. P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. have been great for the Mavs all postseason, but they are below-average shooters from above the break.

Kyrie Irving is also going to have his hands full with the elite defense of Jrue Holiday. He’ll likely be a bit better than he was in Game 1 moving forward, but it’s hard to imagine him having a huge offensive performance.

The Mavericks’ offense is really going to be all Luka Doncic, and while he’s an all-world scorer, he can’t do it by himself. Even if he scores 40 points in Game 2, it’s still no guarantee that the Mavericks will crack 100 points.

That leads me to the under in Game 2. If Dallas is not going to be able to score the ball at a high frequency, these games could struggle to crack 210 points. Boston’s offense is elite, but they can’t hit the over alone. These squads combined for less than 200 points in Game 1, and I’m expecting another low-scoring affair on Sunday.

More Bets for Celtics-Mavericks Game 2

Kyrie Irving Under 22.5 points (+100)

This prop correlates nicely with the game under. Shot volume wasn’t a problem for Irving in Game 1, with him getting up a healthy 19 shots from the field. The problem was he wasn’t very efficient. He knocked down just six of his attempts, with the Celtics’ elite defense giving him massive problems.

The backcourt duo of Holiday and Derrick White is one of the best in the league, and the Celtics have a 7’3” monster to clean things up on the backend. I don’t expect Irving to shoot 31.6% all series, but he has a long way to go to get to Over 22.5 points. He had just 12 in Game 1, so he’ll need to be extremely more efficient to hit the over in Game 2.

Jayson Tatum Over 15.5 rebounds + assists (+105)

Tatum’s box score may not have reflected it, but he was excellent in Game 1. He had just 16 points, but he was extremely effective on the glass and as a distributor. He racked up 14 potential assists and 11 rebounds, so he was able to take advantage in both areas.

Expect more of the same from Tatum in Game 2. He’s been fantastic on the glass all postseason, averaging more than 10 boards per game, and he’s shown an increased willingness as a passer. The Mavericks might not be quite as aggressive to double-team Tatum on Sunday, but he should be able to find enough assists to hit the over on this line.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

Thursday: 0-3 (-1.55 units)
Futures: 9-3 w/ one pending (+1.41 units)
Playoffs: 50-44-1 (+0.47 units excluding futures)