Bet On This Offense To Explode In Week 13
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+, we break down the 1 PM Week 13 slate, a stat leader bet, and more.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:
I hope everyone’s coming down nicely from a happy and healthy holiday, full of loved ones celebrating how fortunate we are together. Well, I’m full alright. I cooked so much food that my oven submitted paperwork for a two-week vacation.
Since we didn’t see each other Thursday I have to try and cram twenty pounds of stuffing in a ten-pound bird (last Thanksgiving reference until 2025, I promise).
I present to you, the Sunday NFL Blitz …
Texans (7-5) at Jaguars (2-9): There’s a fine line in this life I’ve become quite familiar with over time—that between bravery and stupidity. Granted, my own stubbornness landed me on the wrong side more than I care to admit, and I fear JAX QB Trevor Lawrence is about to join me (Italians know this trait as testa dura, or “hard-head”). T-Law practiced, insisting he’ll return to play on the raging dumpster fire that is the 2024 Jaguars. Why? Because the kid’s tough as nails—I just hope he doesn’t pay a regrettable price. Unfortunately for Doug Pederson, Lawrence won’t help the league’s worst secondary against a Houston offense finally finding a stride since losing target hog Stefon Diggs. LEAN: HOU -3.5 (-110)
Chargers (7-4) at Falcons (6-5): Los Angeles may have just snapped their four-game win streak against Baltimore, but there’s no zero shame in keeping the Ravens close. Jim Harbaugh and his Bolts put the league on notice—they’re for real, eyes locked downrange on a playoff run. Atlanta’s leading the NFC South despite a worse record than the conference’s third Wild Card team, with the operative word being consistency. If you struggle to get a solid beat on the dirty birds, it isn’t you. For whatever reason, Cousins keeps flatlining versus zone coverage. So much so in fact, Denver (one of the league’s most man-heavy squads) switched their style in Week 11—totally befuddling ATL’s veteran signal caller for 173 passing yards plus a pick. Yikes. I’m watching to see if the Chargers continue their slow march up the mountainside and which version of the Falcons shows up. Consistently inconsistent, indeed. LEAN: LAC ML (-120)
Seahawks (6-5) at Jets (3-8): For one blissful bye week I could totally forget the Jets even existed. Ahhhh. Well, they’re back and more dysfunctional than ever. As Aaron Rodgers’ final surviving supporter even I wish this ride would end. New York’s dancing on their fans’ emotional graves, losing seven of eight (ugh) in every conceivable fashion. Conversely, the Seahawks stacked two straight wins off their bye, looking extremely sharp in the process. Perhaps most impressive is the defensive play, allowing just 23 combined points to the Cards and Niners. Not too shabby. If the Seattle secondary can slow down the combo of Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, the single-point spread will look like a joke—the Jets’ D couldn’t stop a snail race with a salt shaker right now. LEAN: SEA ML (-112)
Steelers (8-3) at Bengals (4-7): You can’t find two teams hungrier to get back on the field than the Steelers and Bengals. Both AFC North squads dropped critical games in heartbreaking fashion last week. Sigh. At least for Pittsburgh, it may not have cost them the season. I love Cincinnati. I love Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. So you know it’s killing me to watch the best 4-7 team I can remember get solved on defense every single week without fail. It’ll be freezing in southwest Ohio too, which I think lends itself to Pittsburgh’s style on both sides. Honestly, I was surprised to see the Bengals posted as three-point favorites with such a high game total. I’m modeled to expect more running and longer drives from short passes underneath. LEAN: PIT/CIN u47 (-110)
Colts (5-7) at Patriots (3-9): What looks like a waste of a perfectly good TV slot at first glance actually carries some interesting implications. Two of the league’s most promising young QBs face off in Foxboro. And somehow, the (5-7) Colts currently sit on the playoff bubble just two games behind the Colts and Texans. What else is there to watch for other than a continuation of the maturation process? Keep an eye out for patience through progressions and in Anthony Richardson’s case, his ability to stay on-platform and deliver accurately—a rather glaring hole in the young man’s game to date. Apparently, the public’s giving way more credit to either the weather (36°, Sunny) or the defenses than I am. LEAN: IND/NE O42.5
Cardinals (6-5) at Vikings (9-2): First off, props to Kevin O'Connell's Vikings for a major in-season course correction. Minnesota lost two straight off the bye, along with All-Pro LT Christian Darrisaw, and suddenly ran the risk of unraveling. Whispers of doubt grew louder each day. Well, fast forward a month and it’s four wins in a row—though admittedly against shaky competition in IND, JAX, TEN, and CHI. MIN gets their first balanced team since Week 4 in a true test of the trenches. Arizona’s undergoing a revelation on the defensive side, particularly from the LB tandem of Kyzir White and Zaven Collins. The Cardinals’ interior defense continues to create QB hurries near a league-leading clip without having to blitz. This disrupts timing with a man advantage in the secondary—a large part of why ARI’s surrendered just a measly 10 points per game this month. Wow. If Sam Darnold winds up shuffling around behind a patchworked O-line, we could get an outright upset. LEAN: ARI +3
Titans (3-8) at Commanders (7-5): Still haven’t fully recovered from getting bounced by the Cowboys in Survivor last weekend—I’ll do my best to stay objective. Kidding aside, Washington’s quality of competition came into question more than once in this very newsletter. I incorrectly wound up writing it off as the chest injury sustained by Jayden Daniels. It’s more than that, and I‘m sure he’d be the very first to take accountability. Daniels is an impressive young man and most certainly the Commanders’ answer at QB going forward. The fact remains he’s a rookie without a dynamic WR room outside of Terry McLaurin. When the opposition can take away his top target, there’s very little else to force action in terms of explosives. Tennessee’s a top-5 overall unit, and the NFL’s top secondary by passing yards allowed. If this new and improved version of Will Levis keeps protecting the football, the Titans will be a weekly handful and tough to cover from here on out. LEAN: TEN +6.5 (-122)
A Happy NFL Sunday to all of you from everyone here at the Betting Life Newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!
You can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Look Into My Crystal Ball: Three Pack Of Overs
- Throwing The Distance: Stroud To Be An American
- Sharp Hunter: The Sharps Are All In On The ___
Matthew did it again ...
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The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 The top five player props for today’s slate. Taysom Hill time, baby.
✍️ Injury notes to monitor … this affects betting, too.
💰 Before you confirm your bet, confirm it with our NFL Game Model.
📊 Projections? We have projections for every Week 13 player.
🤑 The players are paid to score, so why can’t you be? … Week 13 Anytime TDs.
Look Into My Crystal Ball🏈🔮—Three Pack Of Overs
Running a little long before I even get started down here so pardon the brevity. Read the blitz up top, I have several dogs barking today. That said, too much confidence in the face of the world’s hardest betting market usually ends one way.
Sadness.
When underdogs pique my interest, I’ve found success leaning into team totals rather than against the spread. This creates a fixed goal, invulnerable to the other team’s score. If you want to read a little more on the topic, check out the building blocks section of this offseason explainer.
HOU TT O23.5 (-115): The theory of the case couldn't be simpler. Houston’s competing for the postseason, in the nice weather, with star WR Nico Collins at full strength, against arguably the NFL’s worst pass defense—Jacksonville ranks dead last in EPA/dropback, opposer passer rating, passing yards/game, and 20-plus-yard completions.
NE TT O19.5 (-130): Not going to make the case for the Patriots as some juggernaut by any stretch. However, declaring New England a bottom feeder for struggling through a seriously rough stretch (TEN, CHI, LAR, MIA) feels like an overreaction to me. In my opinion, Indianapolis’ D cannot hold a candle to any of those four units. They’ve allowed more plays run against them per game than any other team, ranking well below average in a myriad of stats across every bin. It’ll be cold outside but sunny—plus the chance for Anthony Richardson to create a short field or two for Drake Maye.
CAR TT O19.5 (-130): Showing rational exuberance for the Panthers play’s been quite the profitable venture since their apparent Week 9 turnaround. Do I truly believe in a Carolina breakout? No, nor do I need to when the bar’s so low. They’ve eclipsed 20-plus points in three straight and by all intents and purposes should make it four against a very leaky TB secondary.
Throwing The Distance🏈💪🏽—Stroud To Be An American
THE BET: C.J. Stroud, Sunday’s Passing Yard Leader (+500; DraftKings)
This time I have to actually keep it short—can you tell I missed you? I’ve already laid out the vast majority of this case. Jacksonville’s allowed four different QBs to pass for over 335 yards in just eleven games—that’s more than one-third of their games!
Every star and asteroid belt has aligned for Houston to go nuclear in a must-win spot. A Texan loss plus Colt win would reduce their division lead to just one game (with the tiebreaker edge)—talk about too close for comfort. The Jags don’t have an answer for Nico Collins, who torched them back in Week 4 to the tune of (12-151-1). Then, it took a little bit to get the engine revving but there’s no denying the bullish channel in Stroud’s YPA through the season (image below).
I think anyone focused on September’s output may be missing a forest for the trees.
Check Out Stroud’s Projection and More!
The Sharps Are On The Rams On Sunday
With three games on Thanksgiving and another on Black Friday, we’ll have just 10 games as part of Sunday’s Week 13 main slate in the NFL.
Thankfully, the sharp bettors we track at Sharp Hunter have plenty of ideas about Sunday’s slate.
One of the stronger opinions is on the Saints and Rams in New Orleans. The Rams are a 2.5-point favorite in a game with a 49.5-point total.
Our sharps like the Rams as road favorites here—and we’re showing a strong Three-Bag Sharp Score on LA. Games with a Three-Bag Score (💰💰💰) are the ones the sharps feel most confident.
I don’t always bet with our sharps—but I share their confidence in the Rams here in this spot. I am betting on the Rams here.
The Rams offense is loaded with stars, with names like Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, and Kyren Williams. Rob Havenstein—not a big name—but he might be just as important and he’s back at tackle for the Rams. With a talented and healthy offense going against a team that generates NO pressure and has struggled against the run (No. 31 DVOA vs. the run and No. 22 overall on defense), the Rams project to put up plenty of points here. I will be double-stacking Stafford in DFS on Sunday, for sure.
On the other side, Saints G Lucas Patrick is out and C Erik McCoy was a DNP all week at practice and is listed as questionable. The Rams have a strong DL and should be able to pressure Derek Carr at will. Injuries already have the Saints undermanned at receiver.
I loved betting against the HC/QB combo of Dennis Allen and Carr. Allen has been fired, but we still get to bet against Carr—who is 1-6 ATS coming off a bye in the last seven seasons. The Saints are off the bye in this spot.
I think the Rams are a better team with a chance to make the playoffs. And getting them as a road favorite under a field goal seems like the right play. I’m betting the Rams -2.5.
So do our sharps at Sharp Hunter. Let’s hope we’re both right on Sunday.
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