Bets from the Group Chat Week 14. All in on Courtland Sutton.
Geoff Ulrich shares some of the Fantasy Life team’s favorite targets for Week 14 of the NFL season, including CJ Stroud, Courtland Sutton, and more.
The 3-way group chat parlay record moved back to 4-5 on the year after we got tripped up in a couple spots (thanks Steelers) last week. Even after the loss we are still up +16.52 units overall since this started (assuming one unit bet per parlay).
After going 1-2 on individual plays last week, we are at 20-7 on the individual props posted in this section for the year (pretty good!).
- Week 6 recap: +543 ✅
- Week 7 recap: +721 ❌
- Week 8 recap: +666 ❌
- Week 9 recap: +549 ✅
- Week 10 recap: +647 ✅
- Week 11 recap: +560 ❌
- Thanksgiving recap: +522 ❌
- Week 12 recap: +413 ✅
- Week 13 recap: +593 ❌
As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our parlay below (you can play them separately, or put them all together and ride the three-way parlay).
If parlays aren’t your thing, we also have the weekly ladder targets as well. Good luck!
Group Chat Parlay
Jordan Fiegleman likes: C.J. Stroud over 214.5 passing yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Projection: 234.8 yards
- Play to: 217.5 (-110)
The Jets are admittedly one of the toughest passing defenses in the NFL, but this is CJ Stroud we’re talking about. He’s third in yards per attempt this season and has thrown for 270+ yards in five straight games.
Dec 3, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) in action during the game against the Denver Broncos at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
The line on Stroud has moved down all week thanks to the Jets defense and weather concerns, but there is a possibility the worst of the rain and wind won’t come until after or late in the game. Our projections agree, this total looks like it’s too bearish and warrants an over.
Mark Drumheller likes: Bears +3.5 (-120, BetMGM)
- Play to: +3.0 (-105)
I’m with Mark on the Bears this week. They have an emerging defense that has nabbed eight turnovers in their last three games and have become nearly impossible to run on after the addition of LB Montez Sweat.
As Mark mentions himself in our FREE bet tracker, catching Jared Goff outside in potentially poor weather could be a gift. Goff is 9-14-1 ATS for his career while playing outdoors in Dec/Jan.
Geoff Ulrich likes: Austin Ekeler under 13.5 carries (-150, BetMGM)
- Projection: 12.6
- Play to: 12.5 (-115)
I am admittedly trusting “coach speak” a little on this one, but I do think Ekeler is a solid fade target in this market. The Chargers run game has been legitimately awful this year, with Ekeler averaging 3.5 yards per carry or less in seven of nine games this season.
Head coach Brandon Staley has now hinted there will be more carries for backups Josh Kelley and Isaiah Spiller this week, which would of course hurt Ekeler’s volume. He’s also gone under this in two of his last three games regardless.
Putting it all together: +508, BetMGM SGP
- Bears +3.5 (-120)
- Ekeler under 13.5 carries (-120)
- C.J. Stroud over 214.5 passing yards (-115)
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!
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Week 14 Ladder Plays
Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones.
The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well.
The Week 14 ladder targets are below.
Courtland Sutton - Broncos (BetMGM)
- 75+ rec yards (+165) - play to +125
- 80+ rec yards + anytime TD (+400 - SGP)
- 100+ rec yards (+425) - play to +400
Production-wise Sutton has been fine the last few games (he went for 77 yards and a TD last week), but there have also been a lot of close calls that could have led him to bigger days. This spot against the Chargers looks like a prime one for him to excel and finally post that 100+/TD day he has been close to all season.
The Chargers' secondary has faced a couple of low volume passing offenses of late, but they are still allowing the third most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs. On the year, they’ve allowed four 100+ yard games to opposing WRs and the fifth most receiving yards to the position to date.
Sutton doesn’t get the volume that other big name WRs get, but he’s been efficient with his touches. He’s third in receiving TDs (9) despite averaging just 6.3 targets a game and has also gone for a catch of 30+ yards in five of his last six games.
We can play Sutton through 75+ and 100+ yards on BetMGM, but if you want a third ladder to include in a Sutton ladder play this week, creating a same game parlay on BetMGM with 80+ yards and an anytime TD gives you solid +400 odds to chase. As mentioned, he’s been an extremely efficient TD scorer this year and faces a bottom tier secondary that should allow ample opportunity to add to that total.
De’Von Achane, RB - Dolphins (DraftKings)
- 80+ rush yards (+235) - play to +225
- 90+ rush yards (+370) - play to +350
- 100+ rush yards (+550) - play to +500
The Titans still rank out as a top-tier rush defense (12th in EPA vs the rush), but this game has major blowout vibes attached to it. Miami is trending strongly after two blowout wins and ranks out top five in EPA per rush and success rate per rush on offense. Despite their solid defense, we have seen other teams get up on the Titans and eventually wear down their line.
Dec 3, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane (28) carries the ball as Washington Commanders safety Jartavius Martin (20) chases during the second quarter at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Zach Moss ran all over them in Week 5 (165 rush yards), and Jaylen Warren managed 88 yards vs them on just 11 carries.
Achane took 50% of the carries last week for Miami and produced a solid 73 yards in the Dolphins' game last week. So far this season he’s taken 8 or more carries in a game four times and gone over 100 rush yards on three occasions. Despite his hyper-efficiency and the Dolphins' overall offensive prowess, the market on Achane still looks promising with odds of +500 to go for 100+ yards in Week 14, making him a great ladder play for Monday Night.
You can tail Achane at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for your new account below!
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Week 14 Bets from the Bet Tracker
Each week, the Betting Life crew puts their favorite bets and plays they have personally made for the week inside our FREE bet tracker for everyone to follow. I highlighted a few of my (our) favorites just to give you a small taste.
Matthew Freedman Likes: Justin Herbert OVER 0.5 INTS (+140, BetMGM)
- Projection: +110.3
- Cutoff: +130
The thesis on this one looks simple. Justin Herbert has averaged around 12 INTs a season in his first three full years in the league (extrapolated, that’s around 0.7 a game), yet we are getting +140 odds (around 41% implied probability) that he will throw a pick this week.
Here’s a few more stats from Freedman’s Week 14 prop article where he mentions this play (and others):
“Since his second season, Herbert has 31 INTs in 47 games (including playoffs).
In 25 of his post-rookie starts (53.2%), he has an INT.”
The Broncos have also been opportunistic as a unit, with INTs in 8 of 12 games. It’s a solid spot to bet on a turnover (at plus odds) from a QB who has few reliable targets.
Geoff Ulrich Likes: Kylen Granson OVER 12.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
- Projection: 16.7
- Cutoff: 13.5 (-110)
Granson has been all over the map with his production, but if you look at his season as a whole, it’s clear he’s a pretty effective downfield receiver. The Colts' TE has gone for 15 yards or more in six of 10 starts this year, often despite seeing his snaps top out around the 25-30 range.
It’s always a little risky targeting overs on non-full-time “role” players, but Granson is also in an excellent matchup. The Bengals are horrific against opposing TEs, allowing the second most fantasy points and receiving yards to the position this season. With Cincinnatti’s offense also looking effective again last week, it’s quite likely we see this game stay close and Granson gets in that 3-4 target range once again. If he does, he’ll have a great shot at going over this number against one of the worst middle-field coverage units in the league.
You can tail the Granson over at Bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below and place your first bet of just $1!
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