Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers 

The Browns and Steelers meet this week as the second part of the Monday Night double-header matchup.

Cleveland’s 1-0 start puts them in the driver’s seat in the AFC North, and they’ll face a reeling Steelers squad who got embarrassed at home in week 1. 

The Steelers were simply not ready for the 49ers juggernaut.

It took them over a quarter to get a first down on offense, and on defense they were manhandled by Brock Purdy (220-2) and Brandon Aiyuk (8-129-2) early on.

Aiyuk’s an elite WR, but allowing him to post an 8-129-2 line with a 14.85 aDOT is troubling for the Steelers' secondary going forward. 

On the brighter side, TJ Watt recorded three sacks, forced two fumbles, and was the highest-graded pass rusher of week 1. Unfortunately, it didn’t make an iota of difference in the game itself as the 49ers brushed those events aside by constantly responding with big plays from Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel (5-55), or Christian McCaffrey (22-152-1, 2-17). 

The good news for Pittsburgh is that they’ll be taking on a Browns offense in week 2 that isn’t likely to be able to match the explosiveness the 49ers had.

Cleveland was able to get by the Bengals, but it’s hard to evaluate the upside of their offense given the rainy and windy conditions that game was played in. 

Sep 10, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (24) runs the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals during the first quarter at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

Deshaun Watson (154-1-1, 5-45-1) had some laughably under-thrown balls where wind was obviously a factor, and most of the Browns' offense came via Watson and Nick Chubb (18-106, 4-21) running the ball.

The Browns adapted well to the conditions but may need better efficiency from Watson and the passing game to get by Pittsburgh. 

It’s hard to make any hard determinations about Watson after that outing, but the few deep balls he threw weren’t great-looking.

Elijah Moore (3-43, 2-19) led the team with a 23% target rate and had an 80% route participation rate. His stat line wasn’t pretty, but given the conditions, it's the usage we want to pay attention to here. I’d expect more targets and yards for Moore in week 2 against a secondary that struggled at limiting YAC to the 49ers' receivers in week 1. 

Where do we even start with the Steelers?

They had perfect conditions in week 1 yet for an entire half were manhandled by the 49ers, who sacked Kenny Pickett (232-1-2) five times and pressured him on 10% of his dropbacks. Pickett also missed some easy completions that could have potentially turned the game around. 

Things may not get much easier this week. Cleveland has an elite corner in Denzel Ward to potentially shut down George Pickens (5-36), who is now the de facto number one WR for Pittsburgh with Diontae Johnson (hamstring) out for multiple weeks.

The Steelers will need Pickens to step up and he is certainly capable. The second-year wide-out had a 92% route participation rate in week 1 and notably had a 3-72-1 line against Cleveland in the finale last season. 

Given the loss of Johnson, I’d look for OC Matt Canada to try to utilize the TEs and RBs more in the passing game.

Jaylen Warren (3-6, 5-12) only had a 35% route participation rate, but don’t be shocked if both his snap count and routes run go up in week 2. Najee Harris (6-32, 2-2) remains the early down back, but the Steelers need to utilize Warren’s explosiveness more with Johnson out. 

The line in this game opened at -2.0 in favor of Cleveland and has moved to -2.5 with an equal amount of handle and bets coming in on the Browns.

The Browns are likely getting too much credit for beating a divisional opponent in less than optimal conditions, while Pittsburgh is being overly penalized for losing out to the league's best defense.

A +3.0 spread with the Steelers at home would be ideal, but it’s hard to say if the line will move that far. 

As mentioned in the Monday edition of the Betting Life Newsletter, underdogs have been trendy the last few seasons and started off 2023 hot again, going 9-5 ATS in week 1.