Buccaneers at Lions

The spread for this game opened at 7.0 points, but action quickly came in on Tampa Bay and pushed this number down to 6.0 at many spots. There has been some buyback on the Lions since then, and the number is floating between 7.0 and 6.0 at various shops. 

The total for this game seems like it’s destined to rise most of the week. It opened at 47.0 but has hit 48.5 at some places already. Detroit’s last game against the Rams saw those teams combine for 38 first-half points, but a conservative Rams offense led to the under hitting as the game stalled at 47.0 combined points. The Buccaneers seem likely to be more bold this week given the spread (+6.0 underdogs) and are coming off a game where they dropped 32 points on the Eagles. 

After beating Philadelphia, the Buccaneers also head into this divisional round against the Lions having won six of their last seven games. It’s an impressive stretch by any standard, but it’s worth pointing out that their schedule didn’t include a murderer’s row of elite squads. They did beat the Packers by multiple scores at Lambeau, but Green Bay had a lot of key inactives for that game. The Buccaneers were also handled rather easily by a physical Saints team in Week 17 (in a game where they could have clinched the division)—and you can be certain that the Lions will likely take some notes from that matchup into this week’s divisional round. 

One thing that IS certain for Tampa in this game is that they’ll need Baker Mayfield to be at his best once again to have a shot. Detroit has a great D-line, with Aidan Hutchinson producing 2 sacks and 5 QB hits against Matthew Stafford last week. The Eagles did get to Mayfield and managed four sacks of their own, but it didn’t result in any turnovers. However, Mayfield certainly had a couple of throws that could have been picked last week, and Detroit will need to capitalize on these opportunities this week. 

Rachaad White rushed for over 70 yards and 4.0 yards per carry against Philadelphia, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see him go for more receiving yards than rushing yards in this spot. Detroit has been a top run-stopping unit all year and has allowed just 3.6 yards per carry over their last three games.  They have allowed some big receiving games to running backs this year as well, and with the Buccaneers set as 6-6.5 underdogs, certainly White has a great shot at seeing more up-tempo, no-huddle snaps in this game. White’s a good alternate line candidate for props from both a receptions and receiving yards standpoint. 

I would also expect Mike Evans to be busier in this spot. He only caught three passes last week, but game flow limited his targets late. The Lions' offense won’t be easy to stop, and Evans is going to have a severe height advantage against whoever covers him on Detroit as all of their CBs are under 6’0". Like White, Evans’s alternate lines are worth targeting, and it also wouldn’t shock me if Baker Mayfield throws for over 300 yards in this spot. While they have been winning despite their penchant for giving up big plays, each of the last four QBs Detroit has faced has thrown for over 340 yards. 

For the Lions, they’ll also want to be attacking through the air. Tampa Bay allowed DeVonta Smith (8 rec, 148 yards) to get loose for multiple big plays last week, and the Lions will have a healthier Sam LaPorta (knee) and potentially Kalif Raymond back as well. One thing is certain, it’s going to be hard for the sportsbooks to set Amon Ra St. Brown’s receiving prop high enough in this spot. The second-year WR has now gone for 7+ catches and 100+ yards in five of his last six starts. The Buccaneers also allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs in the regular season. 

I would likely side with the Lions in this game at 6.0. Detroit at home has genuinely been easy money with Jared Goff at QB, who is now 25-9 ATS in games played indoors over the last three years. At the same time, the passing props for the Buccaneers are my favorite bets from this game. Looking at alternate lines on Evans, White, and Mayfield (or combining them into same game parlays) could lead to some potentially big payouts for this Sunday.