Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers 

The more things change the more they stay the same. Four years ago these two teams met in Super Bowl 54. Kyle Shanahan was leading an upstart 49ers team led by an elite run scheme and emerging defense. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes had the league's most explosive offense and were looking for their first Super Bowl ring. 

The Chiefs and Mahomes won that day by overcoming an early deficit and beating the 49ers rather handily, in the end, 31-20. They forced Kyle Shanahan to adapt from his front running style and exposed a statuesque QB in Jimmy Garoppolo. 

A lot of the main characters from both of those teams remain in place (Mahomes, Kelce Reid and Shanahan, Samuel, Kittle, Bosa) but, overall, these are two very different teams from what we saw in 2019. 

Tyreek Hill is gone for the Chiefs and has been replaced by a hodgepodge of different WRs who all offer their own blend of flaws and strengths. Rookie Rashee Rice has been the biggest addition for the Chiefs this year and has turned into a legitimate go-to name for Patrick Mahomes. From Week 12 onward Rice’s weekly target share has only fell below 20% once and hs route rate has been over 85% in four of his last six starts.

Rice’s target share on 3rd and 4th down has also risen as the year has progressed and he’ll be a name the Chiefs will likely need to lean on this spot against a 49ers defense that has strong linebackers in Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. The 49ers have solid corners but allowed the fourth-most receptions to opposing WRs this season. 

Nov 26, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders during the fourth quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

After Rice, the Chiefs rely on a blend of journeymen like Marquez Valdes-Scantling (last week’s hero), Justin Watson, Mecole Hardman, and Richie James Jr. to get by. In a lot of ways, the Chiefs' success, or lack thereof, has been tied directly to how this group has performed every week. While they struggled with drops early on, Kansas City has also recently removed the biggest liability from this group (Kadarius Toney) and received much more stable play from Watson and Valdes-Scanlting in the playoffs – something that also happened last year around this time. 

Valdes-Scantling certainly has proven that he can get open downfield against anybody. The 4.37 speedster has caught three passes of 30 yards or more in the last two games for the Chiefs and had a season-high 96% route rate against Baltimore. The 49ers do have athletic corners in Ambry Thomas and Chevarious Ward but don’t be shocked if Valdes-Scantling pops up with a big play or two again this game. He beat an athletic Ravens secondary downfield last week to seal the game for the Chiefs. 

Unlike the Chiefs, the 49ers offense is brimming with elite names. On top of bringing back Samuel and Kittle for this rematch, they’ve added Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey, two of the premier players in the league at their position. By now, we all know McCaffrey’s story. He balled out in a full season in this Shanahan system, scoring a league-high 21 TDs and going for over 2,000 all-purpose yards. He’ll face a Chiefs rush defense this week that ranked just 28th in rush EPA this season. 

Aiyuk is the intriguing wild card in this game. While he sometimes gets third or fourth billing in this offense the wideout is one of the best at beating man coverage and plays a Chiefs defense that likes to press and played the 7th-most man coverage on defense this year, according to the NFL’s next-gen stats. Aiyuk will face elite corners in L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie but has already posted 7 games with 100+ yards this season.  He’ll be someone to think about for same-game parlays and alternate line bets this week. 

The 49ers alpha-led offense is intimidating but when we zoom out and look at this game from a bigger lens it’s the Chiefs that stand out by most metrics. Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog for his career and moved to 14-3 straight up in the playoffs after beating Baltimore last week. Further, while the 49ers' offense has saved them the last two weeks with big fourth-quarter comebacks the Chiefs pressure and complex blitz schemes are sure to give their O-Line issues. The Chiefs ranked second in sacks and Brock Purdy, while under more pressure the last two weeks, has seen his efficiency drop significantly (62% completion rate in playoffs). 

This line opened at 3.0 but has since moved down to 2.0 - 1.5 at most sportsbooks. As much as the 49ers feel like a team of destiny right now, after two comeback wins, I feel good about siding with the Chiefs. The 49ers' defense has put them in big holes the last weeks and faces a Chiefs offense that has as much confidence as they have had all season. Even with the poor matchups I described above for the Chiefs on defense, they are stacked with playmakers on that side of the ball and their turnover rate has gone up in the playoffs. 

This will be the first time playing in the big game for most of the 49ers squad but the Chiefs have a team brimming with Super Bowl experience after last year’s win. I’ll take the +110 moneyline odds that that experience (and the fact they have Mahomes) shines through and leads to Kansas City’s third Super Bowl win in five years.