Early Super Bowl 61 Odds and Initial Takeaways: Are The Rams The Best Bet At The Top?
Matthew Freedman takes an early look at the Super Bowl 61 betting odds, highlighting the favorites, sleepers and more.
Now that Super Bowl 60 is in the books, let's look ahead to early Super Bowl 61 odds.
Early Odds To Win Super Bowl 61
Below is a table with each team's best odds to win the Super Bowl (best available number for bettors), those odds converted into market-implied percentage probabilities and then those percentages with all the juice (vig) in the market removed.
| Teams | Best Odds | Probability | No Vig Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 950 | 9.52% | 8.43% |
| LAR | 950 | 9.52% | 8.43% |
| BUF | 1200 | 7.69% | 6.81% |
| BAL | 1400 | 6.67% | 5.90% |
| GB | 1400 | 6.67% | 5.90% |
| PHI | 1500 | 6.25% | 5.54% |
| LAC | 1500 | 6.25% | 5.54% |
| DET | 1600 | 5.88% | 5.21% |
| KC | 1600 | 5.88% | 5.21% |
| NE | 1700 | 5.56% | 4.92% |
| SF | 1800 | 5.26% | 4.66% |
| DEN | 2000 | 4.76% | 4.22% |
| HOU | 2200 | 4.35% | 3.85% |
| JAC | 2200 | 4.35% | 3.85% |
| CHI | 2700 | 3.57% | 3.16% |
| CIN | 3000 | 3.23% | 2.86% |
| DAL | 3500 | 2.78% | 2.46% |
| TB | 5000 | 1.96% | 1.74% |
| IND | 6000 | 1.64% | 1.45% |
| MIN | 6000 | 1.64% | 1.45% |
| WAS | 6000 | 1.64% | 1.45% |
| NYG | 7500 | 1.32% | 1.17% |
| ATL | 8000 | 1.23% | 1.09% |
| PIT | 10000 | 0.99% | 0.88% |
| CAR | 15000 | 0.66% | 0.59% |
| CLE | 15000 | 0.66% | 0.59% |
| TEN | 15000 | 0.66% | 0.59% |
| NO | 17500 | 0.57% | 0.50% |
| LV | 18000 | 0.55% | 0.49% |
| ARI | 25000 | 0.40% | 0.35% |
| MIA | 25000 | 0.40% | 0.35% |
| NYJ | 25000 | 0.40% | 0.35% |
To see all the odds for all the teams across the major sportsbooks, check out our NFL Futures Odds page. "950" means "+950," which means "9.5-to-1."
Here are my quick takeaway thoughts looking at the market right now.
Initial Thoughts On Early Super Bowl 61 Betting Odds
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Seahawks and Rams both make sense at the top of the board. These divisional opponents played three times this past season. In those games, the Seahawks scored 88 points: the Rams, 85.
These were the two best teams in the NFL this past year, and if the Rams had been able to hold onto their 30-14 lead in Week 16 in Seattle (instead of ultimately suffering a 38-37 OT loss), they (instead of the Seahawks) probably would've been the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
And with homefield advantage in the playoffs, they (instead of the Seahawks) could've won the Super Bowl.
The Seahawks were the better team in 2025, and they deserved to win the Super Bowl.
But now they're without OC Klint Kubiak. They could lose a whole slew of players in free agency. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and CB Devon Witherspoon are now eligible for new contracts. In 2026, they will face a schedule befitting a Super Bowl champion. And since they are the champs, they will now get every opponent's best shot each week.
Compare that to the Rams, who have two first-rounders this draft and the reigning MVP in QB Matthew Stafford.
If I had to bet on one of these teams at current odds, it would be the Rams.
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Baltimore Ravens
I'm somewhat surprised that the Ravens are a top-five team in odds to win Super Bowl 61.
There's no guarantee that new HC Jesse Minter will be as good as former HC John Harbaugh, especially given that Minter also plans to call defensive plays for the team. It can be tough for a former coordinator to transition to the big job while still keeping some of the duties of his old job.
There's no guarantee that 29-year-old OC Declan Doyle, who has never called plays before, will be better than former OC Todd Monken, a longtime coaching veteran who helped QB Lamar Jackson win an MVP and become the NFL's most efficient passer over the past three years (9.4 AY/A).
And there's especially no guarantee that Jackson, now 29 years old himself, will take to Doyle's system and tutelage or that he'll be able to rebound from his career-low 26.8 rushing yards per game last season.
With all this uncertainty—and given how the team finished last year—I think the Ravens have less than the 6.67% probability to win the Super Bowl needed to make them a break-even bet.
Detroit Lions & Kansas City Chiefs
Even without former OC Ben Johnson, the Lions were still No. 4 in scoring (28.3 points per game) last year. With an easier schedule this year, they could rebound all the way to the Super Bowl.
As for the Chiefs, QB Patrick Mahomes (knee) is injured, but I expect him to return early in 2026 (if not by the beginning of the season), and I also imagine that he (and HC Andy Reid) will be more motivated than ever before after the Chiefs finished 6-11 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014.
Dallas Cowboys & Washington Commanders
The Cowboys last year were No. 2 in offensive yardage (6,663) … but they were No. 3 in most offensive yardage allowed (6,409). I doubt that new DC Christian Parker will be any worse than former DC Matt Eberflus, and the Cowboys have two first-rounders with which they can address defensive needs this offseason.
If the Cowboys stay steady on offense and become merely average on defense, they could make a run.
Staying in the same division: The Commanders rode OROY QB Jayden Daniels and a friendly schedule all the way to the NFC Championship in 2024, but then injuries, regression, and tougher opponents sabotaged them in 2025.
If Daniels can return to form in 2026, the Commanders could once again surprise.
New York Giants, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans & New Orleans Saints
All these teams are at least 75-1 to win the Super Bowl.
And all of them have second-year QBs who could take significant 2025 Drake Maye- and Caleb Williams-like steps forward in 2026.
- Giants: Jaxson Dart
- Browns: Shedeur Sanders
- Titans: Cam Ward
- Saints: Tyler Shough
They all intrigue me for various reasons.
But if I had to pick one of these teams to win the Super Bowl … it honestly might be the Saints (175-1).
HC Kellen Moore won Super Bowl 59 not long ago as the Eagles OC. He might be the kind of play caller who can have an impact similar to the one HC Mike Macdonald had with the Seahawks and their defense this past year.
I can imagine Shough improving in 2026. He fell in the NFL draft because of his advanced age, but last year he looked like a typical 26-year-old veteran, not a second-round rookie, especially after the Week 11 bye, when he produced as both a passer (256.9 yards per game) and runner (25.0 yards). Because of his age, he might be closer to his ceiling than the typical second-year player, but Shough could still take a step forward with a full offseason to prepare as the starter.
And the Saints defense was actually good last year.
- Yards per Play: 4.8 (No. 4)
- Success Rate: 41.9% (No. 8)
- EPA per Play: -0.051 (No. 10)
DC Brandon Staley had the league's No. 1 defense in 2020 as the Rams DC (18.5 points per game), and he entered his LAC HC tenure with the reputation of being something of a wunderkind.
While his HC gig didn't go as planned, I was impressed with what he did last year with modest talent on his unit, and it's possible that the defense could be even better in his second season with the team.
The Saints almost certainly won't win the Super Bowl this upcoming season … but at this point last year, we could've said the same thing about the Seahawks.
Sometimes, fate and the football gods have their own plans.
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