The 2024-25 NFL season kicks off this Thursday and folks, we have a doozy. The Chiefs take on the Ravens in a direct rematch of the AFC Championship game from last January, a game that saw the Chiefs outlast Baltimore in a gritty 17-10 slugfest, played in Baltimore.

Less than a full year has gone by and these two teams will meet again. With this being the regular season and first game of the year, the question now begs, will this game play out similarly or will we see a dramatic shift in play from one side, or both?

Let’s not waste any more time and get to the analysis and best bets for Thursday Night Football, Chiefs vs. Ravens.

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Chiefs -3.0 (-102; DraftKings) vs. Baltimore +3.0 (-118; DraftKings) 46.5 O/U

The spread in this game has fluctuated between 2.5 and 3.0 for much of the last month. As soon as Baltimore has gotten to the key number of 3.0, bettors have seemed very happy to take the Ravens as 3.0-point underdogs. And it’s potentially for good reason, from a trend perspective anyway. Lamar Jackson is a cover god when he enters a game as an underdog, boosting an insanely efficient career 12-1 ATS (+78.6% ROI) mark when the Ravens are getting points.

Last year in the playoffs the Ravens were the home team (and favored by -3.5). It was expected that Baltimore would be able to run all over the Kansas City defense, which ended the year 28th in EPA against the run. That was not the case. The Ravens only rushed the ball 16 times in that game, which was 15.5 attempts under their season average.

Lamar Jackson wasn’t calling plays, but he was part of the problem as he turned the ball over twice. Add in a bad Zay Flowers fumble and the mistakes eventually led to KC getting a two-score lead, one they were able to sit on until the clock ran out.

Baltimore likely abandoned the run far too early in that game but given their personnel changes for 2024-25, it seems unlikely they’ll make that mistake again if the same sort of game flow materializes on Thursday.

Is King Henry a difference-maker?

After losing out in the conference finals last year, Derrick Henry was brought in this offseason to add a different dynamic to the Ravens backfield, and boost what was already one of the best rushing attacks in the game. Henry is 30 years old now, but it’s hard to say if his body (which is as freakish as they come) runs on the same age-cliff clock as every other RB in the league.

Henry hasn’t averaged over 4.5 yards per carry in three straight seasons now, but has remained an effective red zone back (among other things), landing 35 rushing TDs in his last 41 games–-many of which came while playing on some bad Titans teams.

Even if Henry doesn’t bounce back with more explosive runs, it’s not hard to see him outperforming in the TD markets this year. At the very least, he should make Baltimore a more effective offense near the goal line and be an improvement on the unit we saw take on the Chiefs last January.

Are the Chiefs Worthy?

On the flip side, the Chiefs countered this offseason with an added weapon of their own in Xavier Worthy–-a player who set the combine record earlier this year with a recorded 4.21 sec 40M dash time.

Worthy undoubtedly has a tougher matchup against a Baltimore secondary that led the league in yards per pass attempt against in 2023. However, Baltimore did lose revered DC Mike McDonald in the offseason (who is now coaching Seattle) and Worthy’s speed will be a brand new factor in this matchup, and one that will be hard to prepare for. 

Chiefs vs. Ravens - Spread and Total

I’m not likely to take a position on the total. 46.5 does feel somewhat large after the 17-10 we saw last January, but the weather isn’t terrible yet and both teams may be a lot more efficient scoring the football this season thanks to new offensive weapons. Add in the loss of an elite DC for Baltimore and some new kickoff rules and I’m happy just watching the total play out personally.

The spread is more interesting. If I do play, it will be by taking a piece of the Chiefs at -2.5, assuming that number moves down to 2.5 by kickoff, which I think it will.

The Ravens may be underdog Jesus, but Mahomes, at home, at less than a FG on the spread, is too tempting. The Chiefs are essentially running back the same crew they had last year this season but didn’t have a Chris Jones holdout to worry about, and were able to add some explosive playmaking at WR-–something they sorely lacked last season (yet still somehow won the Super Bowl).

This year, the Ravens are the team with more lingering question marks (how does the defense respond after losing their coordinator? How does Henry fit in?). While the Chiefs faltered a little last season at home (5-4), since Mahomes took over as starter they have the second-highest win % in the league at home with a 46-15-0 record. Again, they can win without covering but if the line falls under 3.0 that scenario gets far less likely.

Overall, this line looks extremely efficient but again, it’s KC -2.5 or nothing for me if I’m picking a side. 

Chiefs vs Ravens Best Bet

Justice Hill over 7.5 receiving yards 

One bet I’ve already made for this game, and placed in our FREE Bet Tracker is Justice Hill to go over his low receiving total.

Hill is now the direct backup to Derrick Henry with Gus Edwards gone and Keaton Mitchell injured, so he’ll have little competition for usage when Henry needs a breather or the Ravens get into obvious passing-down situations.

While Henry can catch a little, Hill is the far more dynamic route runner and went over this mark, averaging 33 yards receiving, quite easily in his last five starts of last season-–all games when Mitchell was also out. 

John Harbaugh has already talked about Hill’s role and suggested that he’s a starting caliber back who is going to “play a lot”.

It’s hard to say what Hill’s role and usage will be in this game, but remember that while Henry is making his Ravens debut, Hill is a known quantity to Harbaugh and his teammates.

I expect we’ll see him out there enough to at least get a couple of targets, usage which will hopefully put him over this number at some point on Thursday Night.