In this breakdown of my Chiefs vs Steelers predictions and preview for the Week 17 Christmas matchup, I include my model's game score and player stat projections (via boxscore), which should be useful as a resource for fantasy and betting.

I also …

• Provide general notes on various items (such as betting market data, team trends, weather, travel, rest, injuries, #RevengeGames, etc.)
• Highlight any potential best bets I have on the game
• Note any players I like to outperform expectations.

Essentially, whatever catches my eye with this game—that's what I'm writing about. Think of this collection of focused miscellany as just part of my “Freedman Files.”

For my fantasy thoughts on the Week 17 slate, see my Freedman's Favorites article.

Obligatory notes.

Time Stamp: All data, projections, and analysis are as of Tue., Dec. 24, 4:30 a.m. ET.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest) as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections, all of which are accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription.

You can get 10% off your FL+ sub with the promo code FREEDMAN.

And if you're looking for free betting insights, give our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker a look, as well as our Betting Life Newsletter and all the actionable articles we have on the site.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Betting Odds for Chiefs vs Steelers Week 17

• Spread & Total: KC -3 | O/U 43.5
• KC ML: -154 (FanDuel) 
• PIT ML: +136 (DraftKings) 

Betting data is via our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

A spread of -3 means the Chiefs need to win by at least four points to cash. If the Steelers win outright or lose by no more than two, they cash. If the Chiefs win by exactly three, the bet pushes. A total of 43.5 means that 44 or more points cashes the over and 43 or fewer points cashes the under. A -154 ML means that a bettor needs to wager $154 to win $100; a +136 ML, $100 to win $136.

This is the ninth time the Steelers and Chiefs have met with HCs Mike Tomlin and Andy Reid.

In their previous matchups, both teams are 4-4 ATS and 4-4 ML.

It's just that kind of game.

Steelers-Chiefs Implied Team Totals

• KC Team Total: 23.25
• PIT Team Total: 20.25

Implied team totals are derived from spread and total.

Projections for Chiefs vs Steelers Week 17

Steelers-Chiefs Betting Projections

• Spread: KC -2.25
• Total: 43.7
• ML: +/-127.6

Chiefs-Steelers Final Score Prediction

• Chiefs: 23
• Steelers: 20.7

Since this projected score is technically impossible, here's my "informed gut" projection: KC 23, PIT 21.

Steelers-Chiefs Projected Odds to Win

• Chiefs: 56.1%
• Steelers: 43.9%

Steelers Player Projections For Week 17

Quarterback

Top Fantasy Plays for Week 17 Steelers vs. Chiefs

Steelers Week 17 Fantasy Rankings

Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Steelers in their skill-position groups for Week 17 as of this morning, on Dec. 24.

• Russell Wilson: QB27
• Najee Harris: RB31
• Jaylen Warren: RB32
• Calvin Austin: WR51
• George Pickens: WR53
• Pat Freiermuth: TE12

Rankings are for half-PPR scoring and differ slightly from projections, which seek to hit the median in a range of outcomes. In contrast, my rankings attempt to take into account ceiling and floor. 

For updates, see my weekly fantasy rankings.

Pickens will certainly move up the ranks as we get confirmation that he will return to action from the hamstring injury that has sidelined him for weeks. Ultimately, I expect him to settle in the WR2 range. Right now, my ranking indicates that there's no need to take a chance on him in your fantasy lineups in championship week until we see him removed from the injury report.

Chiefs Week 17 Fantasy Rankings

Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Chiefs in their skill-position groups for Week 16.

• Patrick Mahomes: QB16
• Isiah Pacheco: RB26
• Kareem Hunt: RB34
• Xavier Worthy: WR35
• DeAndre Hopkins: WR39
• Hollywood Brown: WR43
• Travis Kelce: TE9
• Noah Gray: TE24

As the rankings suggest, this offense is officially bereft of reliable high-end fantasy options.

Steelers-Chiefs #RevengeGames

“What though the field be lost? All is not lost; the unconquerable will, and study of revenge, immortal hate, and courage never to submit or yield: And what is else not to be overcome?”

JuJu Smith-Schuster opened his career with the Steelers and flashed as a 21-year-old rookie (58-917-7 receiving) before being named the team MVP in 2018 with a strong sophomore season (111-1,426-7 receiving).

Unfortunately, injuries impacted Smith-Schuster's career thereafter, but he did find redemption—at least temporarily—after leaving the Steelers in 2022 and joining the Chiefs, with whom he had a 933-yard bounceback campaign.

Smith-Schuster is no longer as good as he once was, but this Christmas—against his former team—maybe he can channel his younger self and return to form just one more time.

Betting Records and Trends for Week 17 Steelers vs. Chiefs

Steelers 2024 Betting Records

• ATS: 10-5, 28.0% ROI | Underdogs: 5-2, 39.3% ROI | Home: 5-1, 60.4% ROI
• ML: 10-5, 29.8% ROI | Underdogs: 5-2, 69.9% ROI | Home: 5-1, 54.8% ROI
• Over: 8-7, 2.1% ROI | Home: 2-4, -35.5% ROI 

Betting performance data is via Action Network.

The Steelers have been great this year ATS and ML—especially at home—but unactionable on the total.

Chiefs 2024 Betting Records

• ATS: 6-8-1, -16.2% ROI | Favorites: 5-7-1, -18.7% ROI | Road: 3-3-1, -3.6% ROI
• ML: 14-1, 32.9% ROI | Favorites: 13-0, 36.4% ROI | Road: 6-1, 27.2% ROI
• Under: 8-7, 2.0% ROI | Road: 4-3, 9.2% ROI 

For most teams, winning and covering are correlated. For the Chiefs, they've been decoupled, especially as favorites. In the best way possible, the Chiefs strategically and regularly seem to play down to the level of their opponents while still managing to win. I guess that's the magic of QB Patrick Mahomes and HC Andy Reid.

Steelers Betting Trends

• HC Mike Tomlin: 160-141-7 ATS, 4.1% ROI | 190-115-2 ML, 8.8% ROI
• Tomlin at Home: 83-66-4 ATS, 8.7% ROI | 106-45-1 ML, 12.7% ROI
• Tomlin as Underdog: 64-37-4 ATS, 23.0% ROI | 54-51 ML, 29.8% ROI
• Tomlin Off Loss: 59-44 ATS, 12.4% ROI | 69-39 ML, 12.1% ROI
• Tomlin Outside Division: 97-96-3 ATS, -1.3% ROI | 114-80-1 ML, 3.9% ROI
• Tomlin as Home Dog Off Loss: 11-2 ATS, 63.8% ROI | 10-3 ML, 91.6% ROI
• Tomlin as Non-Div Home Dog Off Loss: 5-2 ATS, 40.8% ROI | 4-3 ML, 55.9% ROI
• QB Russell Wilson With Steelers: 6-3 ATS, 28.9% ROI | 6-3 ML, 33.4% ROI
• Wilson at Home: 54-45-3 ATS, 5.8% ROI | 73-29 ML, 9.0% ROI
• Wilson as Underdog: 43-25-2 ATS, 22.8% ROI | 32-37-1 ML, 17.1% ROI
• Wilson Off Loss: 38-27-5 ATS, 13.1% ROI | 45-25 ML, 4.8% ROI
• Wilson as Home Dog Off Loss: 4-1 ATS, 55.6% ROI | 3-2 ML, 34.2% ROI

The Steelers are at home, underdogs, and off a loss. This is a classic "Tomlin spot" … and also I suppose a "Wilson spot" as well. 

Regardless of what you think about trends, it's undeniable that the Steelers are in a good situational spot and on the right side of their splits (although the positive impact of these Steelers trends has historically been diminished outside of division).

Chiefs Betting Trends

• QB Patrick Mahomes: 67-58-4 ATS, 4.0% ROI | 103-26 ML, 17.1% ROI
• Mahomes on Road: 31-24-3 ATS, 9.3% ROI | 50-13 ML, 29.5% ROI
• Mahomes Outside Division: 49-38-2 ATS, 8.5% ROI | 68-21 ML, 15.4% ROI
• Mahomes as Favorite: 55-56-3 ATS, -3.8% ROI | 92-22 ML, 9.3% ROI
• Mahomes as Favorite of -3 or Less: 13-7 ATS, 24.6% ROI | 13-7 ML, 10.4% ROI
• Mahomes Since 2022: 26-27-2 ATS, -5.9% ROI | 45-10 ML, 20.0% ROI
• Mahomes vs. Tomlin: 3-0 ATS, 92.0% ROI | 3-0 ML, 72.0% ROI

The Chiefs' propensity to win without covering isn't isolated to 2024. That has been a hallmark of Mahomes' career, especially since 2022, when the team traded away No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill.

That said, he has been a reliable ATS option on the road, outside of division, and as a short favorite. Just perhaps, Mahomes might have the right blend of magic brew to counteract Tomlin's voodoo. Three wins don't make Mahomes a Tomlin conqueror, but in the words of Robb Stark: "It's better than three defeats." 

Steelers vs. Chiefs Injury Report and External Factors

I won't touch on all the players on the injury report, but here are the key injuries that catch my eye.

Steelers Notable Injuries for Week 17

• WR George Pickens (hamstring): Has missed three straight games but practiced in full on Monday.
   
• DT Larry Ogunjobi (groin): Exited Week 14, missed Weeks 15-16 but got a full designation on Monday.
   
• SS DeShon Elliott (hamstring): Missed Weeks 15-16 but got a full practice on Monday.
   
• CB Donte Jackson (back): Exited Week 15 and missed Week 16 but practiced fully on Tuesday.
   
• CB Joey Porter (knee): Left Week 16 early and has missed back-to-back practices.

I expect Porter to be out with only a short week to recover, but otherwise, the Steelers look to be getting healthy.

Earlier in the week, when I projected most of these players to be out, my projections liked the Chiefs. Now, they point to the Steelers at the current market numbers.

Chiefs Notable Injuries for Week 17

• LT D.J. Humphries (hamstring): Exited Week 14 and hasn't practiced since.
   
• RT Jawaan Taylor (knee): Left Week 16 early, but back-to-back limited practices are encouraging.
   
• DT Chris Jones (calf): Exited Week 16 and is yet to practice.
   
• CB Chamarri Conner (concussion): Missed last week and has neither practiced nor cleared protocol.

The Chiefs seem likely to be without their starting LT, their best defensive player, and their slot corner.

Steelers-Chiefs External Factors

• Home-Field Advantage: The Steelers have had a strong home-field advantage over the past five years—and they get the full benefit of it this week because the Chiefs are outside of division and play on a synthetic turf surface at Arrowhead Stadium.
   
• Travel: The Steelers are finally at home, but they just played five away games in seven weeks. That matters. The Chiefs are on the road, but they just played three of four at home.
   
• Weather: The forecast calls for winds of two mph, a 9% chance of rain, and a temperature of 39 degrees (per NFLWeather).

Steelers-Chiefs Anytime TD Player Prop

• Noah Gray Anytime TD: +600 (Cesars)
• Proj: 0.19 TDs | +500 to Score

Gray had a reduced 41% route rate last week with the return of WR Hollywood Brown (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report), but he still has five TDs in 10 games since the Week 6 bye, and his explosiveness (9.1 yards per target, 8.5 since 2022) gives him the enhanced potential to turn targets into TDs.

Over the past six weeks, Gray has four targets inside the 10-yard line. No guarantee that usage will persist, but he's more of a threat to score than the ordinary No. 2 TE.

Abbreviations

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
• Short Down and Distance (SDD)
• Long Down and Distance (LDD)
• Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)

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