Divisional Round Bets from the Group Chat. Ladder up a Bills WR.

The group chat three-way parlay record moved to 5-10 last week. We went a solid 2-1 on our picks in the Wild Card round, but the Lions/Rams SGP we put together got held up by the over not quite getting there. We did manage to hit the over easily on Josh Reynolds receiving yards and covered the +3.0 with the Rams, so it wasn’t all terrible.

Even with the loss, we’re still up +13.68 units overall since this started (assuming one unit bet per parlay).

After going 2-1 on individual plays again last week, we are also now at 31-13-1 on the individual props and bets posted in this section for the year (pretty good!).

Week 6 recap: +543 ✅
Week 7 recap: +721 ❌
Week 8 recap: +666 ❌
Week 9 recap: +549 ✅
Week 10 recap: +647 ✅
Week 11 recap: +560 ❌
Thanksgiving recap: +522 ❌
Week 12 recap: +413 ✅
Week 13 recap: +593 ❌
Week 14 recap: +508 ❌
Week 15 recap: +216 ✅
Week 16 recap: +515 ❌
Week 17 recap: +529 ❌
Week 18 recap: +595 ❌
Wild Card week recap: +400 ❌

As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our group parlay below (you can play them separately, or put them all together and ride together with us!).

If parlays aren’t your thing, we also have the weekly ladder targets as well. Good luck!

Divisional Round Group Chat (Same Game) Parlay

Just like last week, we’re riding with three picks from the same game (Lions/Bucs). Most of these plays are already logged in our FREE bet tracker on Fantasy Life as well, although this week we do also have a guest appearance from an outside source (Fantasy Life!).

Each of these legs can be found in the Same-Game Parlay tab of the Lions/Bucs game on BetMGM.

Ian Hartitz likes: Baker Mayfield over 254.5 passing yards

Projection: 264.5
Play to: 260.5 (-115)

As Stan Lee once said. ‘Nuff said.

Just to add a little color (in case the candle wasn’t enough), the Lions have allowed 379.5 passing yards against, per game, over their last four starts. That’s bad.

Matt LaMarca likes: Buccaneers +6.5

Play to: 6.0

Even though I played the Lions in a teaser (down to 0.5), I still like the Bucs in this spot to cover, and I’ll let LaMarca explain why:

“This line seems way too high to me. I think anything better than Buccaneers +4.0 is playable. Tampa's offense is underrated, while the Lions D is a mess. Tampa Bay can also stop the run, and the Lions run the ball at a higher clip than you might think.”

Geoff Ulrich likes: Rachaad White 25+ receiving yards

Projection: 26.8
Play to: 24.5

This is the riskiest leg of the parlay since we are playing an alternate line on White (25+), but there is good reason to use his receiving over with our Mayfield pick. Baker Mayfield has gone over 250 yards passing eight games this year and six of those games, White has had 25+ yards receiving.

The second-year back has also gone for 25+ receiving yards in a game eight times now over his last 13 starts.

Putting it all together: +525, BetMGM

Baker Mayfield over 254.5 passing yards
Buccaneers +6.5
Rachaad White 25+ rec yards

You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!

Divisional Round Ladder Plays

Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones.

The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well.

The Divisional Round ladder target is below.

Khalil Shakir receiving yards - Bills (BetMGM)

50+ rec yards (+175)
75+ rec yards + anytime TD (+500)
50+ rec yards + anytime TD (+650)

Shakir feels like he could be a pivotal player in this game for the Bills. Gabriel Davis is out again, and Stefon Diggs is banged up and has missed some practice time this week (but will play).

In a lot of ways, Shakir has been the Bills' best WR down the stretch as well. He’s averaged 51.5 receiving yards over his last 11 games of the year, and that includes multiple starts where Shakir caught less than 2 passes.

The Chiefs aren’t likely to make this an easy game for the Bills, to the point where they’ll be able to abandon the pass altogether, either. And while the Chiefs do have a great secondary, KC did allow the 13th most fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers this season, and Shakir took 57% of his snaps from the slot.

For betting purposes, given that Shakir has averaged over 50 yards per game over his last 11 starts, the +175 odds (36.36% implied probability) at 50+ yards is very attractive as a starting point.

I like taking him through 75+ yards (+500, 16.6% implied probability) too as he’s hit for over 75 yards three times in his last 11 starts. For a final leg, using the TD market and the same game parlay function on BetMGM allows us to get a nice +650 on Shakir hitting for 50+ yards and finding the end zone. While he’s not a prototypical end zone target, as mentioned, the Chiefs have had issues with slot receivers this year, ceding TDs to names like Amon Ra St. Brown, Jerry Jeudy, and Jakobi Meyers.

Divisional Round Bets from the Bet Tracker

Each week, the Betting Life crew puts their favorite bets and plays they have personally made for the week inside our FREE bet tracker for everyone to follow. I highlighted a few of my (our) favorites just to give you a small taste.

Matthew Freedman likes: Josh Allen over 0.5 ints (-120, bet365)

My Projection: -133.5
Cutoff: -125

It is hard to argue that this isn’t a fantastic price we are getting on a Josh Allen interception this week. Allen has thrown an INT in 15 of 19 games so far (so, in essence, this prop has a 79% success rate on the season).

Jan 15, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Mykal Walker (38) tackles Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) in the second half in a 2024 AFC wild card game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

His -120 odds, though, have an implied probability of 55.5%. And, as Matt explains, it’s not like Allen has stopped throwing interceptions since the Bills changed OCs.

“Allen has seven INTs in eight games with Brady calling plays. Despite the OC change, Allen still throws picks -- because that’s what Allen does.

Against the Chiefs in Week 14, the Bills won 20-17 … and Allen threw an INT.

Even if the Bills win this weekend, Allen is likelier than not to commit an aerial turnover.”

If you want more bets, don’t forget to check out Freedman’s divisional round prop article where he mentions this play (and others).

Mark Drumheller likes: Kansas City Chiefs +3.0 (-110, BetMGM)

Projection: 13.8
Play to: -9.5 (-115)

The Chiefs are 12-3 SU in the playoffs under Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes’s only playoff loss of more than one score came in the 2020 Super Bowl (Covid season) when the Chiefs' O-line was in shambles and their defense was nowhere near the level it’s at today.

As Mark explains himself, the Chiefs winning this game outright wouldn’t be shocking.

“I have to take the key number here with KC. The emergence of Rashee Rice is huge. The Chiefs offense put up 409 yards last week. Also, the Bills defense suffered more injuries at linebacker. Bernard will be playing through an ankle if he is able to go at all. The middle of the field was open vs. Pitt (Freiermuth had 76 yards on 5 receptions), which bodes very well for Kelce. Chiefs have the better QB, better playcaller, coaching advantage, and more experience having success in the postseason.”

Geoff Ulrich likes: Clyde Edwards-Helaire over 3.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

Projection: 10.5
Play to: -9.5 (-115)

This might be the most unnecessary bet of the entire year. Clyde Edwards-Helaire isn’t going to get a ton of touches, but he will be on the field a decent chunk (he played 30% of the snaps last week) for the simple fact that Jerick McKinnon is hurt (and Pacheco can’t play every snap).

How many actual targets he gets is up for debate, but Edwards-Helaire is an underrated receiver (8.6 yards per catch for his career) and has gone over this small total in four of five games he’s played in 2023, while playing behind Pacheco (with McKinnon out)

Ultimately, I don’t mind being a sicko and sweating Edwards-Helaire targets/catches all game (and our projections do have him in the 7.5 yard range), but if you don’t want to play this one with me, I’ll understand.