Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

The Patriots were one of the biggest wild cards entering the season.

They were a dreadful offensive squad last season, but they were basically playing without an offensive coordinator. With Bill O’Brien filling that role, could Mac Jones and the offense return to their previous level?

After Week 1, their offense remains a major question mark.

Jones put up some impressive counting stats in Week 1, tallying 316 passing yards, three touchdowns, and an interception. Unfortunately, that volume came at the expense of efficiency.

Jones led the league with 54 attempts against the Eagles, resulting in a pedestrian 6.1 adjusted yards per attempt. In terms of dropback Success Rate, the Patriots were right in the middle of the pack in Week 1.

The Patriots were unable to pull off the upset over the Eagles, but they were arguably the better team.

They racked up more than 130 additional total yards, but they were done in by two turnovers and three turnovers on downs. They had a chance to drive for a game-winning touchdown late, but some poor footwork from rookie receiver Kayshon Boutte ultimately did them in:

The good news is that the defense was every bit as good as advertised.

The Patriots were expected to have a good defense this season, but they were fantastic vs. the Eagles. They limited them to just 251 yards of total offense, which was well below their mark from last season.

Philly averaged the third-most yards per game last season (385.8), but they were just 24th in yards in Week 1.

Other the other side, the Dolphins’ offense was an absolute juggernaut in Week 1. They racked up 536 yards against the Chargers, which was 103 more yards than any other squad.

From an efficiency standpoint, they were off the charts. They averaged 0.67 EPA per dropback, which was easily the best mark in the league. Last season, the Chiefs led the league at 0.27 EPA per dropback, so it was a truly special performance.

It’s obviously highly unlikely that the Dolphins remain that successful over the course of a full season, but this offense has the potential to be the best in the league.

We’ve already seen massive success from Tua Tagovailoa, who was second only to Patrick Mahomes in EPA + CPOE composite in 2022. The only thing he needs to do differently this season is stay healthy.

With two of the best receivers in football in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and an offensive savant at head coach, the sky is truly the limit for the passing attack.

The Chargers also boast a solid defense, so if the Dolphins can succeed in that spot, there’s no reason they can’t continue to perform at a high level.

That said, there were some major issues with the Dolphins defense. Specifically, the team was absolutely gashed on the ground by a Chargers squad that had one of the worst rushing attacks in football last season.

Austin Ekeler and Josh Kelley combined for more than 200 yards on the ground, so the run defense could be a major problem moving forward.

Sep 10, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler (30) celebrates with tight end Donald Parham Jr. (89), guard Zion Johnson (77) and tight end Tre' McKitty (88) after scoring on a 1-yard touchdown run in the first half against the Miami Dolphins at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

From a spread perspective, it’s hard not to take note of Bill Belichick as an underdog. He’s posted a mark of 32-23-2 against the spread as an underdog since 2003, but that figure is obviously inflated by coaching Tom Brady for many years. He was 21-8-2 ATS with Brady as a dog, but he’s just 11-15 with everyone else. 

Who knew having the GOAT at quarterback was so important?

Jones’ ATS numbers as an underdog are particularly concerning. He’s just 3-10 as a dog, including 1-5 ATS as a home dog.

Ultimately, the public is unsurprisingly backing the Dolphins in this spot, who have received more than 70% of the spread bets and dollars to start the week. It will be interesting to see if the sharps have any interest in the Patriots, but they’ve yet to really take a stand.

Personally, I’ll be waiting to see if this number gets to 3.0. If that happens, I’ll likely make a play on the Patriots.