In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Hims:

The clock is ticking.

NFL Futures have been out for nearly a month now, and while the general public remains focused on silly little events like the NBA and NHL playoffs, it won’t be long until the NFL takes back the spotlight.

As an astute bettor, does that mean you need to fire every single NFL Futures edge you see from here until opening day? Of course not. But once those pesky sportsbooks start taking more and more bets, certain lines will eventually move or become more efficient as training camp approaches.

That means the longer you wait, the more those juicy edges will disappear.

(Don’t) Fear The Rookies

I think Blue Öyster Cult summed up my approach to betting early NFL futures best. Rookies may have a lot of question marks regarding talent and usage (remember, these are players with zero NFL snaps under their belt), but, in general, we shouldn’t fear supporting them.

I’d even argue that you can find the best value this time of year with rookies, as a lot of the fear I mentioned about their usage (or just outright sucking) is heavily baked into their opening lines already.

That, of course, doesn’t mean I’m betting the over on every single rookie total out there in the player prop markets. However, I’m also not going to be shy about locking in some of the bigger edges out there either when I see them (More Cow Bell!).

Once training camp hits and videos start swirling around social media, you can bet some of the totals on these newbies will start moving quickly.

CHECK OUT THESE ROOKIES’ 2025 PLAYER PROJECTIONS

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Hot takes 🔥 , hotter takes 🔥🔥🔥, and the latest NFL rumors …

🔮 Who do you like to lead the NFL in rushing yards? Saquon, Bijan, King Henry?

🤔 Who’s had the most money bet on him to win NFL MVP?

🦁 Are the Lions ready to run it back? And take the next step.

👀 The Vikings have their third different starting QB in three seasons. In KOC we trust.

🤮 When the chalk doesn’t fly. These most popular MVP bets from 2019 hit hard (and not in a good way).

🔮 NFL Future—The Hunter Will Find His Prey

Travis Hunter Over 700.5 Receiving Yards (-110; bet365)

Projection: 864.0 receiving yards (104.5 targets)

Hunter’s season-long opening line of 700.5 receiving yards reeks of fear. 

Fear that the Jaguars will limit him to 30-40% of the snaps on offense. Fear that he’ll get banged up almost immediately, playing offense and defense. Fear that Brian Thomas Jr. is just a ball-hogging magnet who won’t let Hunter’s career off the ground. 

Those things could happen, but history says that they won’t, or at least won’t happen to the extent that they stop Hunter from racking up 700+ receiving yards next season—and likely a lot more. 

There have been eight WRs taken in the top 10 picks of the NFL Draft since 2021

• Ja’Marr Chase 5th (2021)
• Jaylen Waddle 6th (2021)
• DeVonta Smith 10th (2021)
• Drake London 8th (2022)
• Garrett Wilson 10th (2022)
• Marvin Harrison Jr. 4th (2024)
• Malik Nabers 6th (2024)
• Rome Odunze 9th (2024)

Every single one of them went for over 700 receiving yards in their respective rookie NFL seasons. All but Odunze went for 800+ yards as a rookie. Five of the eight went for 900+ yards, and four of them—Waddle, Chase, Wilson, and Nabers—broke the 1,000-yard barrier as rookies. 

So, what exactly is the worry with Travis Hunter again? Oh, right. The Jaguars are going to use him so much on defense that he’ll have nothing left and probably suck at offense. 

Are you sure about that?

I can see a lot of things happening with Hunter this season, but the one thing I can’t see is the Jaguars not utilizing his offensive skills to the best of their ability.

Liam Coen is an offensive-minded head coach who likes to push the ball downfield and raised Baker Mayfield’s yards per pass attempt from 7.5 to 8.0 in Tampa Bay last season. He didn’t draft Hunter just to give him a few jet sweeps and then play lockdown corner. The early signals out of camp, and Coen’s mouth, support that view.

As of now, we are still showing some great value on Hunter’s over, but given how high-profile a player he is, it’s hard to say how long these low totals will be out there. Personally, given the draft capital Jacksonville just spent to get him, Hunter is a player I’d much rather be early on than late, and before the rookie training camp hype hits full speed in July.

NFL FUTURES BETS

🔮 NFL Future—Judkins should carry the load

Quinshon Judkins Over 625.5 rushing yards (-110; bet365)

Projection: 921.0 rushing yards (213.5 carries)

I’m not going to sit here and pretend I’m a huge Quinshon Judkins truther. You want to know the truth? I think I saw about five of Judkins’ runs in college. One of them was this one. 

Talent-wise, Judkins seems like he’ll be a solid NFL RB and a good fit for Kevin Stefanski’s zone-running scheme. And just to quell our talent fears a little more, here is some of what our draft Maestro, Thor Nystrom, had to say on Judkins, which supports that argument about fit above (and is part of why the Browns likely drafted him). 

“Judkins is comfortable in tight quarters, bouncy and light. He breaks a lot of tackles in the box because of his combination of agility, acceleration, contact balance, and ability to instantly get north-south out of east-west. Over his three-year career, Judkins forced 197 missed tackles, good for 81st-percentile missed tackles forced/attempt. 

“Judkins’ burst is sufficient to steal the corner. He usually doesn’t get too far up the field before getting tracked down. While Judkins accelerates to top-gear very quickly, he does not have elite top-speed.”

Based on what I’ve read and seen, I like Judkins’ talent, but what I love about Judkins for betting is his landing spot and total.

A 625.5 rushing-yard total is obscenely low for a player whose biggest competition for carries is going to come from the incumbent Jerome Ford—a fifth-round pick himself—who averaged 7.42 carries per game for the Browns last year. 

Additionally, while the Browns do project to be one of the worst teams in the league again next season, they’ll also be likely to roll out statuesque Joe Flacco for the season opener, and none of their other four QBs have big rushing upside. Overall, with all of the draft capital they have invested in RBs, Cleveland seems likely to run the ball more next year, even in negative game-flow scenarios (i.e. when down). 

Add in the fact that Browns GM Andrew Berry came out a couple of weeks ago and all but kiboshed a Nick Chubb return to Cleveland, and it’s hard not to love the value we have showing on Judkins’ over right now.

QUINSHON JUDKINS PROP BETS

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