Betting Overview

• Implied Total: 44.5 (-112, DraftKings)
• Spread: Eagles -3.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Game Analysis

Honestly, I’m intrigued with this matchup.

Drafters clamored to get a piece of the Eagles’ offense all summer. A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Jalen Hurts had top-30 draft costs, with Dallas Goedert and (who we assumed to be) the two primary RBs all coming off the board in the mid rounds.

However, now we have to deal with the reality of the season.

A trip to Bill Belichick’s house isn’t always fun. While losing Tom Brady has been part of any Patriots’ discussion, New England’s defense has been seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed since 2020. And they’re still a top-10 unit. But facing last season’s second-ranked offense in points per game should be a good test for the Patriots. 

With that in mind, let’s start with the Eagles offense.

There’s no doubt Jalen Hurts improved as a passer in 2022. His passer rating on intermediate crossing routes jumped from 87.0 to 99.8. As a result, AJB and Smith earned top-10 marks in YAC per reception amongst all WRs. While New England’s defense will try to keep the two in check, Hurts has three backup plans at his disposal.

Plan A: Dallas Goedert

Goedert was third in YPRR with a shorter aDOT of 6.1. He was Hurts’ go-to option if plays didn’t develop downfield. And TEs benefitting from having receivers requiring defensive attention was a common theme against the Patriots.

T.J. Hockenson, Pat Freiermuth, Mike Gesicki, and Dawson Knox found the paint when facing New England last season. But if LB Matt Judon puts the clamps on Goedert, Hurts can always do what he does best.

Plan B: Run

Mobile QBs were Belichick’s kryptonite last season. Only two passers rushed for touchdowns against the Patriots in 2022: Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields.

Just four teams had a positive rushing EPA average when playing New England: Ravens, Bears, Bills, and Bengals.

The Eagles’ offensive line was second in run-block win rate, with four of five starters returning. If Belichick isn’t complaining about the Tush Push now, he will be by the end of the season. And Philly’s offense still isn’t out of ways to keep the ball moving.

Plan C: Use the RBs

I mean, sure, New England only allowed a single 100-yard rusher (Aaron Jones, Week 4), and just three RBs found the end zone. However, Rashaad Penny was first in yards after contact per attempt before going down in Week 5.

D’Andre Swift was 18th in the same metric throughout the regular season, and Kenny Gainwell had a higher explosive run rate than both.

The Eagles RB trio has been a situation I’ve wanted to get right, but we may need more than a single data point to make a final call.

Nov 20, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) runs the ball against the New York Jets in the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

On the flip side, we get to see what Mac Jones looks like with better guidance. Jones was 8th in passing success rate his rookie season under Josh McDaniels.

After 2022, the former Alabama passer was 28th and yelling at his coaches for a playcalling shift. New (old?) Patriots OC Bill O’Brien should put Jones back on track. And their personnel should keep the Eagles on their toes.

JuJu Smith-Schuster packed up his Super Bowl ring and took his talents to New England for his third stop in the NFL. Smith-Schuster likely replaces Jakobi Meyers in the slot, setting him up for fantasy success to start the season.

The Patriots hemorrhaged yards to interior WRs last season, with WRs from CeeDee Lamb (11-120-2) to Christian Watson (5-110-1) to even Richie James (8-62-1) having productive days. The former Steelers’ and Chiefs’ WR has the easiest path to fantasy goodness, but I have some thoughts if you’re looking for a home run in Week 1.

Philadelphia will have Darius Slay and James Bradberry guarding the perimeter again. Both have crossed the age-30 threshold. It’s a young man’s game, and receivers like DJ Chark, Rashid Shaheed, Terry McLaurin, and T.Y. Hilton flashed against the Eagles last season.

With speed being a common trait across all four, it's a shame Tyquan Thornton was placed on IR as he offered the best speed threat for the Patriots to exploit this weakness in the Philadelphia secondary.

However, Jones will likely lean on his ancillary pass-catchers to keep the game flow under control. Rhamondre Stevenson was 4th in target share and 11th in YPRR amongst all RBs last season and only has Ezekiel Elliott behind him as competition.

Given his blocking skills, Elliott may work in short-yardage situations and obvious passing downs, but Stevenson should still see two-minute and red-zone touches in 2023.

The Eagles’ run defense ranked 14th in run-stop win rate last season, but they made significant additions through the draft and free agency. As a result, Stevenson should see plenty of touches as a rusher and receiver to kick off the 2023 season.