Matt LaMarca uncovers the Early NFL Betting Odds for Week 15, highlighting Steelers-Eagles and two other games.

One of the most important parts of being a successful sports bettor is getting the best number as often as possible. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the closing number—also known as Closing-Line Value (CLV)—it’s an indicator that you’re on the right side. Of course, getting the best number doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win, but being on the right side more often than not should add up over time.

So, what’s the easiest way to get the best number? Attacking the markets early. Once the sharps come in and help “shape” the market, it becomes much harder to find betting value. That’s why “chasing steam” is an easy way to lose money. If you’re consistently following the sharps and betting worse numbers than they originally got, you’re not really making the same bets.

With that in mind, let’s dive into Week 15 and look for some opportunities to find value.

Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints

• Pick: Commanders -6.5
• Current Line: -110; DraftKings
• Bet To: -7.0 (-120)

The Saints managed to pull off the win over the Giants on Sunday, but it was far from pretty. They needed a missed 35-yard field goal from Graham Gano at the end of the game to avoid overtime, and they managed just 14 points against a team that had surrendered 26 or more in five of their past six outings.

The ugliness doesn’t stop there. Derek Carr also went down with an injury while scrambling late in the fourth quarter, and Tom Pelissero reports the team fears he suffered a fractured left hand. He also may have suffered a concussion, so his status vs. the Commanders is very much in doubt.

With Carr potentially out of the picture, the team would have to turn to either Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler for the second time this season. Rattler went 0-3 as the team’s starter during Carr’s first injury stint, and they scored 10 points or fewer in two of those contests.

Whoever is at quarterback is going to have to deal with one of the worst groups of pass catchers in the NFL. Rashid Shaheed and Taysom Hill are done for the year, and while Chris Olave is eligible to return from IR, there have been virtually no reports about his progress. With the team all but eliminated from playoff contention, they might choose to exercise caution with their young star receiver.

Playing without their starting quarterback is bad enough, but they’re also catching the Commanders at a terrible time. Washington is coming off a bye in Week 14, after having turned in an outstanding performance in its last contest. The Commanders hung 42 points on the Titans largely because Jayden Daniels posted 250 total yards and 4 combined TDs. They also snapped a three-game losing streak, so morale should be pretty high.

Historically, good teams have fared extremely well coming off a bye. Favorites are 141-122-8 ATS off the bye since 2005, and favorites with winning records have posted an 87-68-5 ATS mark in that split.

I’m not sure they can set this line high enough to avoid piles of money coming in on the Commanders. I’m looking to jump on this line early since it will likely increase if/when Carr is ultimately ruled out.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets

• Pick: Jaguars +3.5
• Current Line: -105; FanDuel
• Bet To: +3.5 (-115)

How much more evidence do we need that the Jets are a bad football team? They may have some talent on paper, but the sum is clearly not greater than the collection of parts.

The raw talent that the Jets have also took a serious hit in Week 14. They were without both Breece Hall and Sauce Gardner, while C.J. Mosley is likely done for the year.

The Jets did manage to play one of their better games of the season in Week 14, but they still found a way to lose. After kicking a field goal to take a three-point lead with less than a minute left, they allowed the Dolphins to return the ensuing kickoff to nearly midfield. Miami would hit a game-tying field goal at the end of regulation and then score a touchdown on the first drive of overtime.

The Jets may have shown some fight against their division rivals, but will they do the same vs. the lowly Jaguars? I doubt it. Jacksonville is a worse team on paper, but it managed to secure a road win over the Titans in Week 14. Mac Jones hasn’t been great in relief of Trevor Lawrence, but their defense played one of their best games of the year.

Ultimately, the Jets are just 4-9 ATS this season, failing to cover by an average of 5.7 points per game. They’re merely 3-6 ATS as favorites, and they’re 1-3 ATS as road favorites. I’m comfortable with fading them basically any time I can get points, and the Jags in Week 15 fit that description.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles

• Pick: Steelers +4.5
• Current Line: -110; FanDuel
• Bet To: +3.5 (-110)

At what point will people just accept the fact that the Steelers are good? It appears that we’re not there yet, as they’re getting 4.5 points against the Eagles in Week 15.

The Eagles are a very good football team, but they struggled a bit vs. the Panthers on Sunday. They were able to win by only six points despite being favored by nearly 2 touchdowns. They had just 292 yards of total offense in what should’ve been a fantastic matchup, while Jalen Hurts was sacked four times.

Meanwhile, the Steelers continued to absolutely cruise. They were able to avenge their earlier loss against the Browns by picking up a 13-point win in Pittsburgh. They’re now 10-3 ATS for the year, which is tied with the Broncos for the best mark in football.

The Steelers have been at their best as underdogs, posting a perfect 5-0 mark in that split this season. If you’ve been following this team for a while, that shouldn’t come as a surprise. Mike Tomlin has historically been one of the best coaches in football when getting points, posting a record of 62-31-3 ATS during the regular season. When getting at least a field goal, his team is 40-19-3 ATS.

Some years, it feels like Tomlin is able to cover spreads through sheer voodoo. But this year’s team feels different. The Steelers have an excellent defense and a good enough offense, so they’re a tough out every single week. They’ve only lost three games this season, and two of them were by exactly a field goal. Getting 4.5 points with this team is simply too good to pass up.