Early Week 14 Betting Odds and Picks: Packers-Lions, Who do ya Love?
Matt LaMarca gets a head start on the Week 14 NFL slate, highlighting odds that stick out and his favorite picks to lock in before the lines move.
The holiday weekend may still have some football, but Matt LaMarca is taking a look ahead at some of the best Week 14 early betting odds and picks.
One of the most important parts of being a successful sports bettor is getting the best number as often as possible. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the closing number—also known as Closing-Line Value (CLV)—it’s an indicator that you’re on the right side. Of course, getting the best number doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win, but being on the right side more often than not should add up over time.
So, what’s the easiest way to get the best number? Attacking the markets early. Once the sharps come in and help “shape” the market, it becomes much harder to find betting value. That’s why “chasing steam” is an easy way to lose money. If you’re consistently following the sharps and betting worse numbers than they originally got, you’re not really making the same bets.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Week 14 and look for some opportunities to find value.
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Early NFL Week 14 Betting Odds and Picks
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
- Pick: Packers +4.5
- Current Line: -105; FanDuel
- Bet To: +4.5 (-115)
The Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 14 should be one of the best of the season. These are two of the best teams in the NFC, and the Lions are probably the best team in football. They’re one of just two teams with only one loss this season, and they’re first in the league in scoring differential.
That said, it’s possible the Lions have become a bit overvalued. They’ve steamrolled through most of their schedule, but it’s not like they're unbeatable. The Bears had the chance to upset the Lions on Thanksgiving, and they probably should’ve lost to the Texans on Sunday Night Football a few weeks ago. They’ve also played close games against the Vikings, Cardinals, and Rams, so they’ve struggled against some of the tougher teams on their schedule.
The Lions have already beaten the Packers once this season, and that came on the road in Green Bay. However, the Packers were dealing with some quarterback uncertainty in that contest, with Jordan Love getting injured the week prior. Love and the Packers are rolling at the moment, picking up comfortable wins over the 49ers and Dolphins in back-to-back weeks.
Additionally, backing Matt LaFleur as an underdog has historically been a wise decision. He’s 22-11 ATS for his career when getting points, including 12-2 when getting more than a FG. The Packers didn’t just cover as underdogs when they played in Detroit last season; they won the game outright.
As good as the Lions are, I’m not sure the gap between them and the Packers is as wide as the current spread suggests. Four isn’t the most important key number in NFL betting, but it’s a key number nonetheless. I want to lock this in now to avoid missing out.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Pick: Vikings -4.5
- Current Line: -110; FanDuel
- Bet To: -5.5 (-110)
We’re seeing some big discrepancies with this line on Sunday evening. The Vikings are listed as just 4.5-point home favorites on FanDuel, but they’re all the way up to -6.0 on DraftKings. Personally, I believe the DraftKings line to be more accurate.
Atlanta is simply trying to hold on at this point. The Falcons jumped out to a strong start this season, but they are fading fast. Kirk Cousins continues to struggle mightily, and he threw 4 interceptions vs. the Chargers on Sunday. Some—like my podcast co-host Geoff Ulrich—have suggested that Michael Penix Jr. would give them a better chance of winning.
If any team is poised to take advantage of Cousins’ deficiencies, it’s the Vikings. Their coaching staff is extremely familiar with him, so they should be able to prepare against him pretty efficiently. They know all of his weaknesses, and they can design a game plan around them.
The Vikings might not be as good as their record suggests, but they continue to win games. They squeaked out a 1-point win over the Cardinals on Sunday, and they’re one of the best-coached teams in football. I like their chances of winning and covering in this spot, and I want to lock in the -4.5 while it’s still available.
Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
- Pick: Chargers +4.5
- Current Line: -115; DraftKings
- Play To: +3.5 (-110)
Another week, another opportunity to fade the Chiefs. It worked out once again in Week 13, with the Chiefs failing to cover the spread as massive favorites vs. the Raiders. Not only that, they barely managed to win the game outright. Despite their 11-1 record, the Chiefs have the point differential of a 7.4-win team, so they’ve been significantly fortunate all season long.
Part of that stems from having Patrick Mahomes. When you have the best player on the planet, you’re going to be able to win games that are close late. If the Chiefs need a score to win a game, there’s a good chance he’s going to be able to go and get it.
Still, winning and covering are different beasts, and Mahomes has simply not been good at covering in these spots. He’s now just 1-6-1 ATS when favored by more than a field goal this season, and he’s 22-36-2 ATS in that split since the start of 2020.
Ironically, one of the few games the Chiefs haven’t underperformed against the spread this season was against the Chargers. They closed as 7-point favorites in their first meeting vs. LA, and they won that game by exactly 7. However, Justin Herbert was at far less than 100% in that matchup. There were some concerns about whether he’d be able to suit up at all, and he completed just 16-of-27 passes for 179 yards.
Herbert barely resembles the player he was early in the season at this point. Jim Harbaugh has loosened the reigns a bit, with the team veering more into the pass in recent weeks. Herbert has responded with some of the most efficient football of his career, averaging 9.20 adjusted yards per attempt over his past six outings.
Like most great QBs, Herbert also has an elite track record of covering the spread as an underdog. Specifically, Herbert is 10-2-1 ATS when getting more than a FG. He’s 4-1-1 ATS in that split vs. the Chiefs, so I’m happy to grab him plus the points in this spot.
Be sure to monitor our NFL Game Model throughout the early part of the week to see where the biggest edges appear before lines move!
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